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The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
Governments around the world are responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic
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, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many policies, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society; however, their benefits cannot be directly observed and are currently understood only through process-based simulations
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–
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. Here we compile data on 1,700 local, regional and national non-pharmaceutical interventions that were deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States. We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth
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,
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, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of approximately 38% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies have significantly and substantially slowed this growth. Some policies have different effects on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages that were deployed to reduce the rate of transmission achieved large, beneficial and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that across these 6 countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 61 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting approximately 495 million total infections. These findings may help to inform decisions regarding whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified or lifted, and they can support policy-making in the more than 180 other countries in which COVID-19 has been reported
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Analyses of COVID-19 infection rates show that non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved large, beneficial and measurable health outcomes in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States; these results may inform decisions on whether or when these interventions should be deployed, intensified or lifted.
Journal Article
The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy
Funding was provided by Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de Espana (Grant No. MDM-2017-0714), Horizon 2020 (Grant Nos. 642260, 821105), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (Grant No. RTI2018-093352-B-I00) and Eusko Jaurlaritza (Grant No. PRE_2017_2_0139).
Journal Article
The Arctic policy of the Republic of Korea
Nowadays the Arctic attracts a lot of countries all over the world, including Asian ones, due to its features, especially its abundant resources and research potential. In the paper the authors consider the Arctic policy of the Republic of Korea. Shipping and sea trade, oil and gas prospection, scientific research are of particular importance for South Korea. International cooperation with the circumpolar states and protection of indigenous people and nature preservation are also essential for the country. To achieve these goals the government of the state has designed several policy documents which provide the authors with the information for this research.
Journal Article
INDUSTRIAL POLICIES IN PRODUCTION NETWORKS
Many developing economies adopt industrial policies favoring selected sectors. Is there an economic logic to this type of intervention? I analyze industrial policy when economic sectors form a production network via input-output linkages. Market imperfections generate distortionary effects that compound through backward demand linkages, causing upstream sectors to become the sink for imperfections and have the greatest size distortions. My key finding is that the distortion in sectoral size is a sufficient statistic for the social value of promoting that sector; thus, there is an incentive for a well-meaning government to subsidize upstream sectors. Furthermore, sectoral interventions’ aggregate effects can be simply summarized, to first order, by the cross-sector covariance between my sufficient statistic and subsidy spending. My sufficient statistic predicts sectoral policies in South Korea in the 1970s and modern-day China, suggesting that sectoral interventions might have generated positive aggregate effects in these economies.
Journal Article
Strikes around the world, 1968-2005
This unique study draws on the experience of fifteen countries around the world - South Africa, Argentina, Canada, Mexico, United States, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Covering the high and low points of strike activity over the period 1968-2005, the study shows continuing evidence of the durability, adaptability and necessity of the strike.
eBook
FIRM GROWTH, ADAPTIVE CAPABILITY, AND ENTREPRENEURIAL ORIENTATION
Research summary: This paper posits adaptive capability as a mechanism through which a firm's prior growth influences the exhibition of future entrepreneurial action. Defined as the firm's proficiency in altering its understanding of market expectations, increased adaptive capability is a consequence of the new resource combinations that result from expanding organizational boundaries. Increased adaptive capability in turn corresponds to expansion of entrepreneurial activity, as firms increase their entrepreneurial orientation as the strategic mechanism to capitalize on their improved understanding of market conditions. We find support for our research model in a two-study series conducted in South Korea and the United Kingdom. Managerial summary: Most would agree that entrepreneurially oriented firms—being innovative, entering new markets, and taking risk—grow faster. But how a firm becomes entrepreneurial is a complicated question. In this study, we flipped the growth relationship around and found support for growth contributing to a firm's entrepreneurial orientation. But between growth and being more entrepreneurial is the firm's ability to recognize changes in market expectations. We argue that as a firm grows, it acquires new resources and new knowledge of how to use those resources. These new resource combinations increase its ability to recognize changes in market expectations—its adaptive capability. This capability uncovers new entrepreneurial opportunities for value creation. To capture this potential value, firms expand their entrepreneurial orientation.
Journal Article
Public mobility data enables COVID-19 forecasting and management at local and global scales
Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of COVID-19 without excessively stifling economic activity. We show that publicly available data on human mobility—collected by Google, Facebook, and other providers—can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and forecast the spread of COVID-19. This approach uses simple and transparent statistical models to estimate the effect of NPIs on mobility, and basic machine learning methods to generate 10-day forecasts of COVID-19 cases. An advantage of the approach is that it involves minimal assumptions about disease dynamics, and requires only publicly-available data. We evaluate this approach using local and regional data from China, France, Italy, South Korea, and the United States, as well as national data from 80 countries around the world. We find that NPIs are associated with significant reductions in human mobility, and that changes in mobility can be used to forecast COVID-19 infections.
Journal Article
Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations
The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons
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. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s
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. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased
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,
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. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown
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. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014–2017 than in 2008–2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.
Emissions from eastern China account for approximately 40 to 60 per cent of the global rise in emissions of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), which may be a result of new production and use.
Journal Article