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Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
We estimate the effects of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We do not find detectable effects of these policies on disease spread or deaths. We find small but measurable effects on mobility that dissipate over time. And we find small, delayed effects on unemployment. We conduct additional analyses that separately assess the effects of expanding versus withdrawing SIP orders and test whether there are spillover effects in other states. Our results are consistent with prior studies showing that SIP orders have accounted for a relatively small share of the mobility trends and economic disruptions associated with the pandemic. We reanalyze two prior studies purporting to show that SIP orders caused large reductions in disease prevalence, and show that those results are not reliable. Our results do not imply that social distancing behavior by individuals, as distinct from SIP policy, is ineffective.
Journal Article
Establishing and Operating Welfare Shelters in the Aftermath of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake: A Case Study of Adaptive Management for Vulnerable Populations
ObjectivesDisasters disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, necessitating specialized support through welfare shelters, which offer tailored care for those with special needs. Despite their importance, comprehensive reporting on welfare shelter operations during disasters remains limited. This study aimed to analyze the establishment and operation of a welfare shelter in Wajima City, Japan, following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, providing insights into operational processes.MethodsThe research presents a first-hand narrative account of a welfare shelter’s operation over a 3-month period. The authors, directly involved in key roles, structured the narrative around 3 phases: Initial (January 1-7, 2024), Operational (January 8-March 31, 2024), and Withdrawal (March-April 2024).ResultsKey findings include challenges in personnel management and resource procurement during the initial phase, implementation of continuous care systems and health management in the operational phase, and difficulties in securing relocation sites for evacuees during the withdrawal phase. Challenges in maintaining nutritional balance and managing infectious diseases were observed throughout the shelter’s operation. Implementing flexible staffing strategies may serve as a practical means to support sustained welfare shelter management.ConclusionsThis case study highlights the importance of pre-disaster planning, broad regional collaboration, and adaptability and continuity in welfare shelter management. The study offers valuable lessons for improving welfare shelter operations and emphasizes the need for comprehensive disaster preparedness strategies including long-term care and relocation planning for vulnerable populations.
Journal Article
Confidence Games
For ten boom-powered years at the turn of the twenty-first century, some of America's most prominent law and accounting firms created and marketed products that enabled the very rich -- including newly minted dot-com millionaires -- to avoid paying their fair share of taxes by claiming benefits not recognized by law. These abusive domestic tax shelters bore such exotic names as BOSS, BLIPS, and COBRA and were developed by such prestigious firms as KPMG and Ernst & Young. They brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in fees from clients and bilked the U.S. Treasury of billions in revenues before the IRS and Justice Department stepped in with civil penalties and criminal prosecutions. InConfidence Games, Tanina Rostain and Milton Regan describe the rise and fall of the tax shelter industry during this period, offering a riveting account of the most serious episode of professional misconduct in the history of the American bar. Rostain and Regan describe a beleaguered IRS preoccupied by attacks from antitax and antigovernment politicians; heightened competition for professional services; the relaxation of tax practitioner norms against aggressive advice; and the creation of complex financial instruments that made abusive shelters harder to detect. By 2004, the tax shelter boom was over, leaving failed firms, disgraced professionals, and prison sentences in its wake. Rostain and Regan's cautionary tale remains highly relevant today, as lawyers and accountants continue to face intense competitive pressure and regulators still struggle to keep pace with accelerating financial risk and innovation.
eBook
Impacts of shelter management on canine rabies immune status
•Quality of shelter management affects rabies vaccine success rate.•Poor management leads to vaccine failure rate of almost 50 %.•Keeping of individual health record and health check before vaccination is critical for vaccination success.
Rabies vaccination is mandatory in dogs in Thailand. In this study, shelter management quality and rabies immune status were evaluated by questionnaire and rabies virus neutralising antibody (RVNA) measurement. The questionnaire was designed to assess all relevant factors of shelter management, which could impact the rabies vaccine antibody response. Thirteen participating shelters were classified into 4 groups, namely group A (best), B (good), C (fair), and D (require improvement). Sera were collected from randomly selected dogs (n = 113) within 4 weeks after rabies re-vaccination from a representative shelter of group B, C and D. Sample from group A was not included in the study due to time limitation. Both the number of dogs with acceptable response (RVNA ≥ 0.5 IU/ml) and the RVNA titres were significantly higher in group B than group C and D. Our results indicate that the quality of shelter management could affect rabies immune status.
Journal Article
Homes, Houses, and Shelters 1
Palma talks about a house and a pool made of cardboard. Besides cardboard and blue tempera paint, the duct tape did wonders while building the houses. The boy making this one was amazed to discover that some pieces of riveted cardboard functioned perfectly for stairs. He was in the zone, adding stairs in all directions, so when the house was done, he looked dizzy trying to find solid ground for the construction. He soon realized that in one position, the house was simply a house with some stairs, but in another one, the stairs flipped their position and took one to a big blue container.
Journal Article
Feline Panleukopenia Outbreaks and Risk Factors in Cats in Animal Shelters
(1) Background: This study aimed to determine the risk factors for outbreaks of feline panleukopenia in shelters. (2) Methods: Four shelters (A−D) with 150 cats were included. Fecal samples were analyzed by parvovirus real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), including culture and sequencing of qPCR-positive samples. Information on cats, husbandry, hygiene, and infection management was evaluated to determine risk factors for feline panleukopenia and parvovirus shedding by logistic regression. (3) Results: Feline panleukopenia occurred in 28.0% (42/150) of cats (0 in shelter D). Shedding was found in 48.7% (73/150) (A: 21/73; B: 29/73; C: 7/73; D: 16/73). Of 73 qPCR-positive fecal samples, 65.8% (48/73) were culture-positive; sequencing revealed feline panleukopenia virus (FPV) isolates in 34/48 samples and vaccine virus isolate in 14/48; canine parvovirus was not detected. Presence of feline panleukopenia was significantly more likely in cats from shelter A (p < 0.05), unvaccinated cats (p < 0.001), and young cats (4 weeks to 2 years; p = 0.008). Parvovirus shedding was significantly more common in young cats (p < 0.001), cats with feline panleukopenia (p = 0.033), and group-housed cats (p = 0.025). (4) Conclusions: Vaccination is the most important measure to reduce the risk of feline panleukopenia in shelters. Risk of parvovirus shedding is especially high in young, group-housed cats.
Journal Article
Comparison of Two Evacuation Shelter Operating Policies and the Role of Public Health Nurses after the Great East Japan Earthquake: A Qualitative Study
This study describes shelter operations by public health nurses (PHNs) in Kesennuma City, located near the epicenter of the Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011. The data were semi-structured interviews with 10 PHNs, 2 nutritionists, and 2 general administrators conducted from July 2013 to January 2014. All transcripts were analyzed using the constructivist grounded theory approach. We identified two operating methods for shelters: shelters stationed by PHNs in the Old City, and shelters patrolled by PHNs in the merged district. These methods were compared using four themes. In emergency situations, “operational periods,” a predetermined short term for a leader to perform his/her duties responsibly, could be adopted for relatively small organizations on the frontline. PHNs must not only attempt to operate shelters on their own but also encourage residents to manage the shelters as well. Moreover, human resource allocation should be managed independently of personal factors, as strong relationships between shelter residents would sometimes disturb the flexibility of the response. Even when a situation requires PHNs to stay in shelters, frequent collecting of information and updating the plan according to response progress will help to maintain effective shelter operations.
Journal Article
Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate
State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April 2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. An event study design allowed each policy's impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of COVID-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.
Journal Article
The early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on business sales
COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the Current Population Survey, for example, indicate that the number of active business owners dropped by 22% from February to April 2020. We provide the first analysis of losses in sales among the universe of businesses in California using administrative data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. Losses in taxable sales average 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, which lost 91%, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Placing business types into different categories based on whether they were considered essential or nonessential (and thus subject to early lockdowns) and whether they have a moderate or high level of person-to-person contact, we find interesting correlations between sales losses and COVID-19 cases per capita across counties in California. The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions as safety measures for public health and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role.Plain English SummaryBusiness sales dropped by 17% on average due to the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020 in California. Accommodations lost 91% of sales, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Sales fell more steeply in counties with more COVID-19 cases. We examine how much businesses lost in sales using administrative sales tax data. The average losses of 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 occurred even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, drinking places, and arts, entertainment, and recreation. Distinguishing between essential and nonessential businesses, which were subject to early lockdowns, and by the level of person-to-person contact, we find that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions for public health safety and voluntary responses to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role. The results suggest that small businesses may need more support from governments and consumers to mitigate the strong shift to online vendors, and that the pandemic must be brought under control as a prerequisite to a full recovery.
Journal Article