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"SINASC"
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National and regional Temporal trends and forecasting of preterm birth in brazil: evidence from National birth data (2014–2023) with projections to 2030
by
Xavier, Sancho Pedro
,
Cerqueira-Silva, Thiago
,
Nhancololo, Alex Monito
in
Adult
,
Brazil - epidemiology
,
Female
2025
Background
Preterm birth (PTB) remains one of the leading causes of neonatal morbidity and mortality globally. In Brazil, regional disparities and socioeconomic inequalities significantly affect maternal and perinatal outcomes. This study aims to describe national and regional trends in preterm birth in Brazil from 2014 to 2023, examine sociodemographic disparities, and forecast future rates through 2030 using time-series analysis.
Methods
We conducted a population-based ecological analysis using data from the Brazilian Live Birth Information System (SINASC) from 2014 to 2023. PTB was defined as delivery before 37 completed weeks of gestation. Descriptive statistics were employed to explore maternal, obstetric, and neonatal characteristics. Temporal trends were assessed using Prais-Winsten regression to estimate Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) at a significance level of 5%. A national monthly time series was constructed using Forecasting models, including Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH).
Results
The analysis included over 25.5 million live births. The national prevalence of PTB increased from 11.3% in 2014 to 11.9% in 2023, with an AAPC of 0.28% (95% CI: 0.43 to 1.00;
p
< 0.001). Higher rates were consistently observed among those without a formal education (15.1%). Regional disparities were evident, with the highest rates among mothers aged ≥ 35 years (13.6%) and those aged < 20 years (12.8%), as well as among those in the North (12.2%) and Northeast (11.5%) regions. SARIMA modelling indicated a continued upward trajectory through 2030. In contrast, more educated women (≥ 12 years) are expected to maintain lower and stable rates (< 13%).
Conclusions
PTB rates in Brazil have shown a rising trend over the past decade, with marked regional and social inequalities. Forecasts indicate that these disparities may increase by 2030 unless effective, evidence-based, and context-specific interventions are implemented. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted public health policies and prenatal care strategies aimed at reducing preventable PTB and promoting maternal and neonatal equity across the country.
Journal Article
Mapping congenital anomalies incidence in the Brazilian health system from 2010 to 2023
by
Cavalcanti Brandão, Lucas André
,
de Moura, Ronald Rodrigues
,
Lima Conceição, Michelle
in
Apgar score
,
Birth defects
,
Brazil
2026
Objective
To conduct an epidemiological study based on notifications of births with congenital anomalies recorded in the Brazilian Live Birth Information System (SINASC).
Methods
We performed an observational study using SINASC data from 2010 to 2023. Annual birth rates, means, and time trends were analyzed. Congenital anomalies were classified according to the ICD-10 and a national priority list. Fisher’s Exact Test, with Bonferroni correction, was used to evaluate statistical associations between maternal-fetal characteristics and the presence of anomalies.
Results
A significant geographic disparity was observed, with São Paulo showing the highest mean annual incidence (1604.75 ± 241.63) and Maranhão the lowest (560.23 ± 163.19). Among priority anomalies, limb defects were the most frequent (60.41 ± 5.97 per 100,000 live births). Inferential analysis confirmed strong and consistent associations between congenital anomalies and key markers of neonatal compromise (5-minute Apgar score < 7, low birth weight and preterm birth), as well as advanced maternal age. Higher odds of registered anomalies in the Southeast region likely reflect differences in surveillance quality rather than true prevalence.
Conclusion
The findings indicate an increasing trend and a geographic heterogeneity in the incidence of congenital anomalies in Brazil. This finding reinforces the need to strengthen surveillance and prevention strategies, with a focus on the high-risk places identified in this study.
Journal Article
Naciuk stuns herself with 2 national titles
by
Rashford, Dave
in
Sinasc, Gail
1992
The 37-year-old Burlington woman suffered a serious neck injury while working at the McDonalds located on Dorval Avenue in Oakville. Naciuk stretched muscles in her neck while cleaning and was bedridden for four months as she recuperated. The 5-foot-5, 155-pound local player disposed of Ontario's Gina Lepp in the singles final, 11-1, 4-11, 11-3, 11-5. Naciuk defeated Wendy Wallace, from New Brunswick, 11-7, 11-2, 11-2 to reach the championship. She opened the tournament with 11-1, 11-2, 11-4 shellacking of Saskatchewan's Helen Bencze. Naciuk teamed up with [Gail Sinasc] to defeat Saskatchewan's Ruth Nicholson and Cathy Soire 11-2, 11-4, 11-1. Naciuk and Sinasc did not lose a game at the championships.
Newspaper Article