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"SOCIAL EXPENDITURES"
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SOCIAL EXPENDITURE MULTIPLIER: ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC EFFECT AND OPTIMAL VALUES
The main aim of the study is to test thehypothesis that social expenditures are not only a sourceof social support and budgeting of the social sphere, butcan be a significant lever of economic development,provided proper planning of their share and volume. Inthis regard, the authors have adapted the open-economymultiplier to assess the economic effect of socialexpenditures. Based on the correlation analysis of therelationship between the share of social expenditures (%of GDP) and the multiplier of social expenditures,conducted on the example of EU countries, two groupsof countries are identified depending on the impact ofsocial expenditure multiplier on GDP: the first oneembraces those countries that are characterized by agrowing economic return from social expenditures; thesecond one is where the return is declining. To determinethe optimal levels of social expenditures, which can beexpected to have a positive economic effect in the formof GDP growth, we have identified critical limits of themultiplier of social expenditures according to theprinciple: the maximum value is seen in the group ofcountries with positive impact; the minimal one isexperienced in countries with inverse dependence of theshare of social expenditures and their multiplier. As aresult, the experience of financing social expenditures inthe EU leads to the conclusion that the optimal share ofsocial expenditures in GDP ranges from 28% to 30% –within these limits multiplier values exceed 1.0, i.e. thereis a positive impact of social expenditures on GDP in theform of the growth of economic results over theresources consumed.
Journal Article
Globalization and Liberalization in Social Policy Expansion: Testing the Compensation and Efficiency Hypotheses in Brazil
This article examines four potential strategies of the Brazilian welfare system in the face of increasing liberalization and globalization since the 1970s. We test whether liberalization and economic globalization hurt the expansion of social expenditure (the efficiency hypothesis or race to the bottom hypothesis) or whether the welfare system expands as a response to the volatility caused by liberalization and globalization (compensation hypothesis). We employ time-series regression analysis to panel data from 1970 to 2015. We controlled for economic (wealth and GDP growth) and political factors (strength of the left and effective competition of parties in the lower house). We identify different strategies followed by the welfare system through the period analyzed. However, two strategies are dominant in the long run: A neoliberal strategy when the impact of globalization is considered (efficiency hypothesis) and an embedded neoliberal strategy when the effect of liberalization is pondered (compensation hypothesis).
Journal Article
An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Public Debt Service Costs on Social Expenditure in South Africa
This study investigates the impact of public debt service costs on social expenditure in South Africa, focusing on three categories of social expenditure, namely, government education expenditure, government health expenditure and government social protection expenditure. It addresses the challenge of financing debt service costs while maintaining social expenditure. The study employed annual time series data from 1994 to 2024 and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effect of public debt service costs on social expenditure. The results reveal that debt service exhibits a negative and statistically significant impact across all three categories of social expenditure under consideration in the long run and short run in South Africa. Moreover, the results reveal that public debt has a negative relationship with all three categories of social expenditure. The exchange rate and revenue were found to have a positive relationship with all three categories of social expenditure under consideration. Urban population was found to have a positive relationship with government education expenditure and social protection expenditure. These findings underscore the need to focus on reducing the fiscal pressure stemming from increasing debt service costs, while upholding social expenditure. It is recommended that policymakers focus on debt stabilisation and reduction, thereby easing the crowding-out of social expenditure.
Journal Article
Welfare Attitudes and Social Expenditure: Do Regimes Shape Public Opinion?
This article examines the link between regime types, social expenditure, and welfare attitudes. By employing data on 19 countries taken from the World Values Survey, the main aim is to see to what degree the institutions of a country affect the attitudes of its citizens. According to Esping-Andersen (The three worlds of welfare capitalism. Polity Press, Cambridge, 1990) welfare regimes can be classified into Liberal, Conservative, and Social Democratic categories. With this as my point of departure, I put forward two research questions: the first concerns the direct influence of regime type on people's attitudes; the second seeks to trace the contours of the regime types by arguing that both social expenditure and welfare attitudes are products of a country's institutional arrangements. These questions are answered through regression modelling and by examining the interplay between welfare attitudes, social expenditure, and welfare regimes. First, we see that there are significant differences in aggregated attitudes between countries belonging to the Liberal and the Conservative regimes, with the former's citizens holding more rightist views than those of the latter. This is explained by the history and organization of welfare benefits of the two variations of Esping-Andersen's classification. Second, by graphing welfare attitudes against social expenditure the outline of the three regime types mentioned above may be seen. Similar correspondence is not found with regards to an Eastern European category. All in all, this study renders some support for the regime argument.
Journal Article
Making Fiscal Space Happen: Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid
Debt relief and the scaling up of aid to low-income countries should allow for greater fiscal space for expenditure programs to create long-term growth and lower poverty rates. But designing a suitable medium-term fiscal framework that fosters a sustainable delivery of better public services and infrastructure while maintaining a credible commitment to fiscal prudence confronts many challenges. This paper discusses what low-income countries can do to shape fiscal policy frameworks that are ambitious in trying to absorb additional aid while still ensuring longer-term sustainability for government expenditure programs and finances. It suggests what approaches can be used to manage the greater fiscal policy risks associated with a scaled-up aid environment, including coordination with monetary policy. The paper also discusses what institutional changes are needed if donors and countries are to facilitate the implementation of a higher level of aid-financed spending programs.
eBook
Reconstruction amid deconstruction: or why we need more of the social in European social models
This article makes two key arguments. First, European social models are being asked to extend social support to meet new needs associated with the ageing society, changes in citizens' aspirations and behaviour and the reduced reliability of support from employers and the family. How nations respond to these new needs varies according to current gaps in provision and to political will, but most states up to the crisis were expanding their range of social interventions, sometimes leading to hybridization of their traditional social models. Second, deconstruction of social models to implement neoliberalism and reconstruction to meet new needs are often two sides of the same process. Reforms to meet new needs may take a neoliberal form, and neoliberal reforms may generate new needs. European social models may have to respond to these pressures for, unlike those of the USA, European citizens still look to the state to ensure their social citizenship rights.
Journal Article
Volunteering and the state
Volunteering participation rates vary greatly across countries even when the potential volunteers' individual characteristics are controlled. We therefore analyze the volunteers' motives against the backdrop of the predominant political and economic environment in different countries, focusing on the state's role in influencing an individual's decision to volunteer. Combining individual-level data from the European and World Values Survey with macroeconomic and political variables for OECD countries, we identify three channels through which governmental activities influence voluntary labor: size of the state (i.e., amount of public social expenditure), political consensus between voters and the government, and government support for democratization.
Journal Article
Fiscal Policy and the Economic Restructuring of Economies in Transition
This paper discusses major fiscal issues faced by the previously centrally planned economies in their transition to market economies. It focuses on three main topics: (a) the extent to which the budget deficit should be a guide to policy; (b) the reforms that must be carried out in tax legislation and tax administration; and (c) the required changes in public expenditure and in the setting up of institutions to manage public spending.
Journal Article