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The dual-carbon objective aspires to enhance China’s medium- and long-term green power trading and facilitate the low-carbon economic operation of park microgrids from both medium- and long-term and spot market perspectives. First, the integration of medium- and long-term green power trading with spot trading was meticulously analyzed, leading to the formulation of a power purchase strategy for park microgrid operators. Subsequently, a sophisticated Bayesian fuzzy learning method was employed to simulate the interaction between supply and demand, enabling the prediction of the price for bilaterally negotiated green power trading. Finally, a comprehensive multi-objective optimization model was established for the synergistic operation of park microgrid in the medium- and long-term green power and spot markets. This model astutely considers factors such as green power trading, distributed photovoltaic generation, medium- and long-term thermal power decomposition, energy storage systems, and power market dynamics while evaluating both economic and environmental benefits. The Levy-based improved bird-flocking algorithm was utilized to address the multi-faceted problem. Through rigorous computational analysis and simulation of the park’s operational processes, the results demonstrate the potential to optimize user power consumption structures, reduce power purchase costs, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the park.

Building the regional electricity spot market (RESM) in a representative area is an important move to promote the electricity market reform and new power system construction in China. In this paper, the RESM operation model and optimization method are established, which take into account the special power grid operation mechanism and market construction achievements in the provincial electricity spot market. Firstly, the influencing factors, core elements, market structure, and operation model of RESM construction in China are analyzed. Secondly, a bi-level optimization model of the RESM is established. The lower layer is the pre-clearing model of the provincial electricity spot market, which is used to optimize the unit combination strategy, considering unit operation constraints and power grid security constraints in the province. The upper layer is the optimization clearing model of the RESM, which is used to optimize the clearing price and adjust the unit operation strategy and inter-provincial electricity trading strategy, considering the security constraints of regional power grid tie lines. Finally, the RESM composed of power grids in the Yangtze River Delta region of China is simulated as an example. The analysis focuses on the operational state of the power grid after the operation of the RESM, considering its safety benefits, economic benefits, and environmental benefits. The optimization of the RESM can effectively solve the serious regional power grid congestion problem, which is achieved through the superposition and printing of pre-clearing results in various provinces, and the average daily cost of electricity purchasing in the region has been reduced by about CNY 11 million, while the annual cost has been reduced by about CNY 4 billion. In addition, the total carbon emissions have been reduced by 11,000 tons per day and 0.18 kg per kilowatt hour on average, and scenes without power abandonment account for more than 95% of the total scenes.

A high proportion of renewable energy access makes the net load of the power system volatile and uncertain, increasing the demand for the ramping capacity of the power system. Traditional electricity spot markets compensate for the power imbalances caused by an insufficient ramping capacity through traditional flexibility services such as ancillary services and interconnection power. However, conventional flexibility services may lead to frequency deviations in the power system, increased response costs, spikes in electricity prices, and dramatic price volatility in the traditional spot market. To solve the above problems, this paper proposes an FRP and convex electricity spot market joint clearing (FCESMJC) market mechanism. The FCESMJC model can more accurately represent the relationship between electrical power output and the price of electricity and reduces the number of spikes in electricity prices. In addition, a novel FRP pricing method is proposed to compensate FRP market participants for their FRP costs more reasonably. Additionally, the difference in system performance is provided by comparing the energy prices, pricing method, clearing prices, and system costs in the FCESMJC method and the traditional electricity spot market. The FCESMJC system reduces the total system cost by 18.6% compared with the electricity spot market. Numerical experiments are simulated on the IEEE 14-bus test system to validate the superiority of the proposed model.

As the proportion of new energy sources, such as wind power, in the electricity system rapidly increases, their participation in spot market competition has become an inevitable trend. However, the uncertainty of clearing price and wind power output will lead to bidding deviation and bring revenue risks. In response to this, a bidding strategy is proposed for wind farms to participate in the spot market jointly with carbon capture power plants (CCPP) that have flexible regulation capabilities. First, a two-stage decision model is constructed in the day-ahead market and real-time balancing market. Under the joint bidding mode, CCPP can help alleviate wind power output deviations, thereby reducing real-time imbalanced power settlement. On this basis, a tiered carbon trading mechanism is introduced to optimize day-ahead bidding, aiming at maximizing revenue in both the electricity spot market and carbon trading market. Secondly, conditional value at risk (CVaR) is introduced to quantitatively assess the risks posed by uncertainties in the two-stage decision model, and the risk aversion coefficient is used to represent the decision-maker’s risk preference, providing corresponding strategies. The model is transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming model using piecewise linearization and McCormick enveloping. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model and methods is verified through numerical examples.

The electricity spot market plays a significant role in promoting the self-improvement of the overall resource utilization efficiency of the power system and advancing energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper analyzes and compares the potential impacts of spot market operations on system planning, considering the differences between planning methods in traditional and spot market environments through theoretical analysis and model comparison. Furthermore, we conduct research and analysis on grid planning methods under the spot market environment with the goal of maximizing social benefits. Unlike the pricing approach based on historical price data in traditional market simulation processes, a data-driven approach that combines experimental economics and machine learning is proposed, specifically using mixed empirical learning to simulate unit bidding strategies in market transactions. A simulation model for electricity spot market trading is constructed to analyze the performance of the planning results in the spot market environment. The case study results indicate that the proposed planning methods can enable the grid to operate well in the spot market environment, maintain relatively stable nodal prices, and ensure the integration of a high proportion of clean energy.

We examine how different characteristics of product demand and market impact the relative sales volume in the forward and spot markets for a commodity whose aggregate demand is uncertain. In a setting where either the forward contracts are binding quantity commitments between buyers and suppliers or the forward production takes place before the uncertainty in demand is resolved, we find that a combination of factors that include market concentration, demand risk, and price elasticity of demand will determine whether a commodity will be sold mainly through forward contracts or in the spot market. Previous findings in the literature show that when participants are risk neutral, the ratio of forward sales to spot sales is a function of market concentration alone; also, the lower the concentration, the higher this ratio. These findings hold under the assumption that demand is either deterministic or, if demand is uncertain, all production takes place after uncertainty is fully resolved and production plans can be altered instantaneously and costlessly. In our setting, however, we find that even a low level of demand risk can reverse the nature of supply in a highly competitive (low concentration) market, by shifting it from predominantly forward-driven to predominantly spot-driven supply. In markets with high concentration, the price elasticity of demand will determine whether the supply will be predominantly spot-driven or forward-driven. Our analysis suggests various new hypotheses on the structure of supply in commodity markets. This paper was accepted by Martin Lariviere, operations management.

The development of renewable energy in China has made remarkable achievements, but the problem of renewable energy consumption has become increasingly prominent. This paper establishes a power market trading system for renewable energy, with the aim of promoting large-scale renewable energy consumption and increasing the enthusiasm of renewable energy producers and users to participate in market transactions. First, according to the power generation cost, the backup cost of renewable energy power plants and the possible quotation strategies of other renewable energy producers, a quotation model of renewable energy producers is established. In the clearing of the spot market by renewable energy producers, the independent market operator conducts the first-stage clearing of the electricity market with the goal of maximizing social welfare. After the announcement of the clearing results, the renewable energy producers that did not win the bid will revise their quotations and carry out the second stage clearing to realize the consumption of renewable energy. In this paper, the particle swarm algorithm combined with the CPLEX solver is used to solve the problem, and finally, different scenarios are analyzed through example analysis. The results show that, compared with the conventional power market trading mechanism, the energy abandonment rate of the power market trading mechanism for renewable energy proposed in this paper drops from 8.2% to 2.1%, and the profit margin of renewable energy producers increase by 6.6%. It is demonstrated that the proposed electricity market mechanism can effectively promote the consumption of renewable energy and increase the income of renewable energy producers.

In this paper, taking rebar steel as an example, we study the causes and influencing factors of spot price differences in rebar steel in different regions, and put forward a prediction model of rebar steel regional price differences based on the spot price of rebar from 2013 to 2022, supply and demand, cost, macroeconomics, industrial economic indicators, and policy data. Through correlation analysis, we consider all influencing factors step by step, select indicators with high correlation to add to the model, and select the optimal combination of influencing factors by comparing the results of five groups of experiments. Using the long short-term memory network, we predict the weekly spot price differences of rebar in different regions. Based on the historical-price time series, the optimal time window setting is given as the final price difference prediction model. The experimental results show that the prediction model of rebar spot price differences can support a 72.3% effective trading rate by combining the influencing factors with the LSTM model. This study has a guiding role for spot trading and can help spot enterprises, determine arbitrage trading strategies based on the prediction results, obtain sustainable returns under low risk, and realize the maximization of cross-regional arbitrage.

This study establishes a combination method-based prediction model for the CSI 300 stock index price embedded with options market information. Firstly, utilizing options and spot market information, a BP neural network is employed to predict the CSI 300 stock index price. Secondly, a logical framework based on a combination method is constructed to further optimize the CSI 300 stock index price prediction through decomposition–clustering, error adjustment, and weighted integration approaches. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Compared to price predictions based solely on spot market information, the introduction of options market information significantly enhances the forecasting performance for the CSI 300 index price. (2) From the perspective of options moneyness classification, after incorporating options information, different types of options contracts exhibit varying impacts on the CSI 300 index price prediction. Prior to optimization, predictions incorporating in-the-money call options with maximum trading volume yield the optimal performance based on the MSE metric. (3) Under the logical framework of the combination method, the prediction effect for the CSI 300 stock index price is gradually improved after introducing the decomposition–clustering method, the error adjustment method, and the price-weighted integration method, which shows that it is appropriate to use the combination method to optimize the price prediction. Overall, this study proposes a combination method for price forecasting incorporating options market information across diverse contract types. It allows for weighted integration of prediction results derived from various options information, offering a novel research angle for spot market price prediction. The study also underscores the importance of implicit information mining and multi-market information fusion for price prediction, which is expected to become a key research focus in this field.

With the rapid expansion of variable renewable energy, coal-fired units are increasingly operated at low load, where non-convex cost characteristics pose challenges for spot market clearing. This study reviews and improves existing low-load generation cost models, introducing three key enhancements: (1) integrating piecewise linearization with the marginal cost approach to reduce computational burden; (2) removing redundant binary variables and incorporating previously omitted cost components to improve clearing efficiency; and (3) developing a fuel cost model that combines quasi-fixed and marginal costs for low-load generation with firing and combustion support (FCS), enabling the joint optimization of low-load and normal operations. Applied to 6-bus and provincial systems, the proposed approach achieves speed-ups of 11.3× and 6.3× over the benchmark model (Model I) while maintaining accuracy, demonstrating both its efficiency and practical applicability.