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Prior research has examined how companies exploit Twitter in communicating with investors, and whether Twitter activity predicts the stock market as a whole. We test whether opinions of individuals tweeted just prior to a firm's earnings announcement predict its earnings and announcement returns. Using a broad sample from 2009 to 2012, we find that the aggregate opinion from individual tweets successfully predicts a firm's forthcoming quarterly earnings and announcement returns. These results hold for tweets that convey original information, as well as tweets that disseminate existing information, and are stronger for tweets providing information directly related to firm fundamentals and stock trading. Importantly, our results hold even after controlling for concurrent information or opinion from traditional media sources, and are stronger for firms in weaker information environments. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the aggregate opinion from individual tweets when assessing a stock's future prospects and value.

Superior corporate reputations can have strategic value for firms. Of the \"multiple reputations\" associated with each firm, we focus on the perceptions of the general public. The public represents the most widely defined stakeholder group but has attracted the least amount of research interest to date. Drawing on data for German firms, this study demonstrates that superior reputation perceptions issued by the general public increase shareholder value, as measured by future stock returns. This study provides a more nuanced understanding for this novel finding. Applying a conceptualization of reputation that balances both its affective and cognitive components, we find that reputation perceptions that are driven by nonfinancial aspects are more value relevant in the future than reputation perceptions that are driven by previous financial performance.

PurposeThis study investigates the level of stock return synchronicity in African markets with the aim of establishing whether, contrary to conventional wisdom, stock return synchronicity can be low in countries with relatively weak information environments.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a sample of five African countries (Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa) and a total of 616 firms over the period 2005–2015. This study's main measure of synchronicity is the R2 from a regression of stock returns on index returns. The authors also carry out regression analysis to investigate the main firm-level drivers of synchronicity.FindingsOn average, firms in African markets do not exhibit high levels of stock return synchronicity, providing support for the view that stock return synchronicity can be low in markets with relatively weak transparency. The authors, however, observe an increase in the level of synchronicity during the global financial crisis, notably for Ghana and Kenya. In the regression analysis, the main firm-level driver of synchronicity is firm size, while contrary to some previous studies, ownership structure has no impact. The authors also find evidence of the impact of changes in accounting regulation, notably the mandatory adoption of IFRS, on the level stock synchronicity.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the understanding of stock return synchronicity and how price discovery can vary between different information environments. The authors argue that stock returns in African countries may not always fit the stereotypical view that they are synchronous. The level of synchronicity among firms suggests that corporate events may carry some stock price implications.

We examine how the information produced by analysts when they initiate coverage contributes to the mix of firm-specific, industry-, and market-wide information available about the firm. We hypothesize that the first analyst to initiate coverage provides low-cost market and industry information allowing him/her to follow more stocks, whereas subsequent analysts provide firm-specific information to distinguish themselves from existing analysts. We use stock return synchronicity to measure the mix of information available about a firm, with higher synchronicity indicating more industry and market information. Coverage initiations of firms with no prior analyst coverage increase synchronicity, suggesting that analysts produce industry- and market-wide information. In contrast, analysts initiating coverage on firms with existing coverage appear to focus on producing firm-specific information as these initiations lead to reduced synchronicity. Together, our findings indicate that the type of information that analysts produce at initiation depends on the information provided by other analysts.

PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of a change in economic policy uncertainty (ΔEPUt) and the absolute value of a change in geopolitical risk (|ΔGPRt|) on the returns of stocks, bonds and gold in the Chinese market.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses Engle's (2009) dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model and Chiang's (1988) rolling correlation model to generate correlations of asset returns over time and analyzes their responses to (ΔEPUt) and  |ΔGPRt|.FindingsEvidence shows that stock-bond return correlations are negatively correlated to ΔEPUt, whereas stock-gold return correlations are positively related to the |ΔGPRt|, but negatively correlated with ΔEPUt. This study finds evidence that stock returns are adversely related to the risk/uncertainty measured by downside risk,  ΔEPUt and  |ΔGPRt|, whereas the bond return is positively related to a rise in ΔEPUt; the gold return is positively correlated with a heightened |ΔGPRt|.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings are based entirely on the data for China's asset markets; further research may expand this analysis to other emerging markets, depending on the availability of GPR indices.Practical implicationsEvidence suggests that the performance of the Chinese market differs from advanced markets. This study shows that gold is a safe haven and can be viewed as an asset to hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in Chinese financial markets.Social implicationsThis study identify the special role for the gold prices in response to the economic policy uncertainty and the geopolitical risk. Evidence shows that stock and bond return correlation is negatively related to the ΔEPU and support the flight-to-quality hypothesis. However, the stock-gold return correlation is positively related to |ΔGPR|, resulting from the income or wealth effect.Originality/valueThe presence of a dynamic correlations between stock-bond and stock-gold relations in response to  ΔEPUt and  |ΔGPRt| has not previously been tested in the literature. Moreover, this study finds evidence that bond-gold correlations are negatively correlated to both ΔEPUt and  |ΔGPRt|.

Under increased scrutiny from top management and shareholders, marketing managers feel the need to measure and communicate the impact of their actions on shareholder returns. In particular, how do customer value creation (through product innovation) and customer value communication (through marketing investments) affect stock returns? This article examines, conceptually and empirically, how product innovations and marketing investments for such product innovations lift stock returns by improving the outlook on future cash flows. The authors address these questions with a large-scale econometric analysis of product innovation and associated marketing mix in the automobile industry. They find that adding such marketing actions to the established finance benchmark model greatly improves the explained variance in stock returns. In particular, investors react favorably to companies that launch pioneering innovations, that have higher perceived quality, that are backed by substantial advertising support, and that are in large and growing categories. Finally, the authors quantify and compare the stock return benefits of several managerial control variables. The results highlight the stock market benefits of pioneering innovations. Compared with minor updates, pioneering innovations have an impact on stock returns that is seven times greater, and their advertising support is nine times more effective as well. Perceived quality of the new car introduction improves the firm's stock returns, but customer liking does not have a statistically significant effect. Promotional incentives have a negative effect on stock returns, indicating that price promotions may be interpreted as a signal of demand weakness. Managers can combine these return estimates with internal data on project costs to help decide the appropriate mix of product innovation and marketing investment.

We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.

Although previous studies have established a direct link between customer-based metrics and stock returns, research is unclear on the mediated nature of their association. The authors examine the association of customer satisfaction and abnormal stock returns, as mediated by the trading behavior of short sellers. Using quarterly data from 273 firms over 2007–2017, the authors find that short interest—a measure of short seller activity—mediates the impact of customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction on abnormal stock returns. Customer dissatisfaction has a more pronounced effect on short selling compared with customer satisfaction. In addition, customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction are more relevant for firms with low capital intensity and firms that face lower competitive intensity. The results show that a one-unit increase in customer satisfaction is associated with a .56 percentage point increase in abnormal returns, while a one-unit increase in customer dissatisfaction is associated with a 1.34 percentage point decrease in abnormal returns.

This paper presents evidence for a significantly positive link between the dynamic conditional beta and the cross section of daily stock returns. An investment strategy that takes a long position in stocks in the highest conditional beta decile and a short position in stocks in the lowest conditional beta decile produces average returns and alphas in the range of 0.60%–0.80% per month. We provide an investor attention-based explanation of this finding. We show that stocks with high conditional beta have strong attention-grabbing characteristics, leading to a higher fraction of buyer-initiated trades for these stocks. We also find that stocks recently bought perform significantly better than stocks recently sold. Hence, the high beta stocks that investors are more likely to buy have higher expected returns than the low beta stocks that investors are more likely to sell. This paper was accepted by Lauren Cohen, finance .

This article examines the properties of the variance risk premium (VRP). We propose a flexible asset pricing model that captures co-jumps in prices and volatility, and self-exciting jump clustering. We estimate the model on equity returns and variance swap rates at different horizons. The total VRP is negative and has a downward-sloping term structure, while its jump component displays an upward-sloping term structure. The abrupt and persistent response of the short-term jump VRP to extreme events makes this specific premium a proxy for investors' fear of a market crash. Furthermore, the use of the VRP level and slope, and of its components, helps improve the short-run predictability of equity excess returns.