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2,595 result(s) for "Scenario simulation"
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Using PLUS-InVEST-OPGD model to explore spatiotemporal variation of ecosystem carbon storage and its drivers in Jinsha river basin, China
Land-Use/Land-Cover Change (LUCC) is a key disturbance factor of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems, and the study on the coupling mechanism between LUCC and carbon storage is of great scientific value for implementing a regional carbon-neutral strategy. In this study, the Jinsha River Basin in Yunnan Province, which has outstanding ecological vulnerability, is taken as the research object, and a synergistic analytical framework of “spatial and temporal pattern drivers” is constructed by integrating multi-temporal remote sensing data and multi-model coupling method. Based on the high-precision 30 m land use data from 1990 to 2020, the PLUS-InVEST-OPGD multi-model coupled system was used to simulate and predict the characteristics of spatial and temporal carbon storage differentiation in 2030 under four development scenarios, namely, natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), farmland protection (FP), and economic development (ED), and to analyze the driving mechanism using the Optimal Parameter Geodetic Probe (OPGP). The driving mechanism is analyzed using an optimal parameter geodetector. The main findings were: (1) The land use structure of the watershed in the study area showed a significant ecological-productive dichotomy, with forest land (60.58%), grassland (28.85%) and cultivated land (7.19%) constituting the core carbon sink carriers (the average proportion of which was 96.62% from 1990 to 2020). Still, the area of forest and grassland decreased by a total of 2,757.84 km 2 in the past 30 years, and the expansion of construction land amounted to 2,321.91 km 2 ; (2) the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon storage shows the heterogeneous characteristics of “overall decreasing and local optimization”, in which the carbon loss from forest to grassland conversion is as high as 30% of the total carbon loss, and the expansion of construction land leads to irreversible decay of carbon sinks of about 50%; (3) a multi-scenario simulation shows that the EP scenario minimizes the loss of carbon storage (−2.46 × 10 6 t) by maintaining a 96.82% ecological land share in 2030, reducing the carbon deficit by 7.79 × 10 6 t compared with the ND scenario; (4) the average annual temperature is the largest single factor affecting carbon storage, and its interaction with the population factor has a high q value of 0.84. This study innovatively reveals the nonlinear threshold effect of LUCC-carbon storage response in the Jinsha River Basin of Yunnan Province, and the proposed optimization model of “ecological protection” can provide decision support and corresponding reference for the construction of ecological security barriers in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.
Development and validation of Simulation Scenario Quality Instrument (SSQI)
Background Due to the unmet need for valid instruments that evaluate critical components of simulation scenarios, this research aimed to develop and validate an instrument that measures the quality of healthcare simulation scenarios. Methods A sequential transformative mixed-method research design was used to conduct the study. The development and validation of the instrument involved two phases: the qualitative phase, which included defining the instrument's theoretical background and instrument construction, followed by the quantitative phase, where the instrument was piloted and validated. The qualitative study included 17 healthcare simulation experts, where three focus group was conducted, and the first version of the instrument was constructed based on the focus group analysis and the theoretical framework constructed using the literature review. During the quantitative phase, the instrument’s quantitative piloting included 125 healthcare simulation scenarios; then, the instrument went through construct validity and reliability testing. Results Content experts confirmed the theoretical model and instrument framework. The average item content validity index (I-CVI) scores and the average of the I-CVI scores (S-CVI/Ave) for all items on the scale or the average proportion relevance judged by all experts was 0.87. The conformity factor analysis results showed a good fit for the proposed 10-factor model (CFI (the comparative fit index) = 0.998, Tucker-Lewis index = 0.998, Root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.061. The final instrument included ten domains: 1. Learning objectives, 2. Target group, 3. Culture, 4. Scenario case, 5. Scenario narrative briefing, 6. Scenario complexity, 7. Scenario flow, 8. Fidelity, 9. Debriefing, and 10. Assessment. The SSQI included 44 items that are rated on a 3-point scale (Meets Expectations = (2), Needs Improvement, (1), Inadequate (0)). Conclusion This validated and reliable instrument will be helpful to healthcare educators and simulation experts who want to develop simulation-based training scenarios and ensure the quality of written scenarios.
3GPP 5G V2X Error Correction Coding for Various Propagation Environments: A QoS Approach
Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications is an emerging branch of wireless communications and has recently gained a lot of interest not only from academia but also from the automotive and telecommunications industry. An important feature of V2X telecommunication systems is that the communication quality varies quickly in time due to the high mobility of the transceivers and due to the rapid change in the fading characteristics of the communication medium. For this reason, it is vital to maintain tolerable quality of service (QoS) in a V2X communication environment, in terms of communication reliability, power, end-to-end latency, data rate, communication range, throughput and vehicle density. A significant impact on the quality parameters of the system has been the coding scheme used by the V2X telecommunication system. For this purpose, we examine the effect that popular coding schemes have on the QoS of a V2X communication system. More specifically, the impact of fourth-generation long-term evolution (4G-LTE) turbo codes, fifth-generation new radio (5G-NR) polar codes and 5G-NR low-density parity-check codes (LDPC) on the QoS parameters of a V2X communication system is researched. Το this end, we employ stochastic V2X propagation models that simulate every possible V2X channel state and traffic environment, based on the third-generation partnership project (3GPP) Release 16 specifications. These propagation models form the basis of our study, since through them, at a first level, we analyze the frame error rate (FER) performance for different levels of signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for all the aforementioned coding schemes and 128-bit V2X-compatible data frames, and, at a second level, we investigate the impact of these propagation models and coding schemes on the V2X QoS parameters. Our analysis shows that turbo-based coding schemes satisfy all the QoS parameters and achieve overall communication quality comparable to polar and better than LDPC, making them suitable for small-frame 5G V2X services.
Effects of live and video simulation on clinical reasoning performance and reflection
Introduction In recent years, researchers have recognized the need to examine the relative effectiveness of different simulation approaches and the experiences of physicians operating within such environments. The current study experimentally examined the reflective judgments, cognitive processing, and clinical reasoning performance of physicians across live and video simulation environments. Methods Thirty-eight physicians were randomly assigned to a live scenario or video case condition. Both conditions encompassed two components: (a) patient encounter and (b) video reflection activity. Following the condition-specific patient encounter (i.e., live scenario or video), the participants completed a Post Encounter Form (PEF), microanalytic questions, and a mental effort question. Participants were then instructed to re-watch the video (i.e., video condition) or a video recording of their live patient encounter (i.e., live scenario) while thinking aloud about how they came to the diagnosis and management plan. Results Although significant differences did not emerge across all measures, physicians in the live scenario condition exhibited superior performance in clinical reasoning (i.e., PEF) and a distinct profile of reflective judgments and cognitive processing. Generally, the live condition participants focused more attention on aspects of the clinical reasoning process and demonstrated higher level cognitive processing than the video group. Conclusions The current study sheds light on the differential effects of live scenario and video simulation approaches. Physicians who engaged in live scenario simulations outperformed and showed a distinct pattern of cognitive reactions and judgments compared to physicians who practiced their clinical reasoning via video simulation. Additionally, the current study points to the potential advantages of video self-reflection following live scenarios while also shedding some light on the debate regarding whether video-guided reflection, specifically, is advantageous. The utility of context-specific, micro-level assessments that incorporate multiple methods as physicians complete different parts of clinical tasks is also discussed.
The effect of multiple exposures in scenario‐based simulation—A mixed study systematic review
Aims To examine the use and effects of multiple simulations in nursing education. Design A mixed study systematic review. Databases (CINAHL, Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, ERIC, Education source and Science Direct) were searched for studies published until April 2020. Method Researchers analysed the articles. Bias risk was evaluated using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme and Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Results In total, 27 studies were included and four themes identified. Students participated in multiple simulation sessions, over weeks to years, which included 1–4 scenarios in various nursing contexts. Simulations were used to prepare for, or partly replace, students’ clinical practice. Learning was described in terms of knowledge, competence and confidence. Conclusion Multiple scenario‐based simulation is a positive intervention that can be implemented in various courses during every academic year to promote nursing students’ learning. Further longitudinal research is required, including randomized studies, with transparency regarding study design and instruments.
Dynamic Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change and Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Carbon Storage under Climate Change Scenarios in Guangdong Province, China
Exploring the spatial distribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon storage under future climate change scenarios can provide the scientific basis for optimizing land resource redistribution and formulating policies for sustainable socioeconomic development. We proposed a framework that integrates the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in LUCC and ecosystem carbon storage in Guangdong based on shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The future simulation results showed that the distribution patterns of LUCC were similar under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, but the artificial surface expanded more rapidly, and the increase in forest land slowed down under the SPP245 scenario. Conversely, under the SSP585 scenario, the sharply expanded artificial surface resulted in a continuous decrease in forest land. Under the three scenarios, population, elevation, temperature, and distance to water were the highest contributing driving factors for the growth of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and artificial surface, respectively. By 2060, the carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems increased from 240.89 Tg in 2020 to 247.16 Tg and 243.54 Tg under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, respectively, of which forest ecosystem carbon storage increased by 17.65 Tg and 15.34 Tg, respectively; while it decreased to 226.54 Tg under the SSP585 scenario, and the decreased carbon storage due to forest destruction accounted for 81.05% of the total decreased carbon storage. Overall, an important recommendation from this study is that ecosystem carbon storage can be increased by controlling population and economic growth, and balancing urban expansion and ecological conservation, as well as increasing forest land area.
Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging
In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district) Ha-Erbin (China). Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s), and those areas would become impassable for residents.
Agricultural Water Resource Management in the Socio-Hydrology: A Framework for Using System Dynamics Simulation
Population growth, coupled with climate and social shifts, has resulted in a global phenomenon of water scarcity. Yet, the effect of social factors on water resources has been poorly studied. Hence, this study aimed to identify the key parameters in social systems that significantly impact hydrological system change and presents the best scenario for water management. The system dynamic (SD) approach was employed in this research to construct a combined framework of policies based on scenarios, which aimed to ensure social sustainability and coupled human-water systems. For this purpose, the SD model was simulated on the Gavshan Basin in the west of Iran for the long-term period 2020-2050. The results indicate that the water resources in the Gavshan Basin cannot meet the growth of the population. Meanwhile, about 20% of the water stored in the Gavshan Dam is not effectively used and flows out of the irrigation network as wastewater. The result of the sensitivity analysis showed that in scenarios 3 and 4, the policy of wastewater reuse in the agricultural sector significantly increases available water resources, has a major impact on water supply, and increases crop yields. These findings can be applied by policy-makers. Instead of making efforts only to change hydrological systems, policies need to first focus on socio-hydrology systems sustainability. It is suggested that national organizations' support should be implemented to prevent the adverse consequences of wastewater reuse in agriculture and reduce treated wastewater risks.
Tracking spawning objects
Many multi-object tracking scenarios are complicated by the fact that an object of interest may spawn additional objects which, for some period of time, follow roughly the same trajectory as the original object and then fall away. The challenge is then to discriminate the original object from the spawned ancillaries in a timely fashion. This study proposes a solution to this problem based on the increasingly well-known multi-object track-before-detect algorithm called the cardinalised probability hypothesis density (CPHD) filter. Precisely, the authors assume zero false alarms (ZFA) in the CPHD filter, and apply the proposed scheme to linear and non-linear simulation scenarios based on widely used object-trajectory and sensor models. The authors have also demonstrated that a Gaussian mixture implementation of the ZFA-CPHD filter (i) establishes stable estimates of object number, (ii) rapidly eliminates the ancillary objects and (iii) detects and accurately estimates the trajectory of the original object of interest.
Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in Changchun City Based on FLUS and InVEST Model
Land use change is an important reason for changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, analyzing the impact of land use change on carbon storage is important for exploring the sustainable development of cities and improving the value of ecosystem services. Taking Changchun City in the northeast of China as the research area, this paper simulates land use patterns under three scenarios up to 2030 using the FLUS model and assesses carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 using the InVEST model. It estimates the impact of land use change on carbon storage under several scenarios in Changchun. The results show that cultivated land plays an important role in carbon storage in Changchun. The transfer of cultivated land to construction land has been the main land use type conversion over the past decade, which has led to most of the carbon storage loss. In the natural growth scenario, the carbon storage would decline further. In the cultivated land protection scenario, meanwhile, this situation would be greatly improved. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be increased due to the protection of ecological land. In the future, we should protect existing resources while simultaneously comprehensively improving the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the land.