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Measuring the global shadow economy : the prevalence of informal work and labour
\"This book brings together two leading researchers in the field to provide a comprehensive overview of the shadow economy from a global perspective. Reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of different ways of measuring the informal sector, the authors evaluate its size and key determinants across the world. Williams and Schneider clearly establish the persistence and prevalence of the shadow economy, analysing the narrowness of existing policy approaches and explaining how these fail to address the key factors for its existence and may even exacerbate the problem. Proposing an alternative way forward, the authors argue that little headway will ever be made in reducing the shadow economy until there are changes not only to the character of formal institutions but also informal institutions (the values, beliefs and norms of citizens) through the introduction of macro-level structural changes. This timely, cutting-edge review of the global shadow economy and how it can be measured and tackled is an invaluable resource for postgraduate students, researchers and policy-makers, particularly those with a interest in tax evasion and informal labour.\"--Page 4 of cover.
Book
Modelling the shadow economy of South Africa: Using the currency demand and MIMIC approach
This paper estimates the size and development of the South African shadow economy (SE) using two indirect approaches namely, the Multivariate Indicator Multivariate Causes (MIMIC) model and the Currency Demand Approach (CDA). The study uses time series from 2000 to 2019 (using quarterly data) to estimate the SE of South Africa for the period 2004 to 2018. The average estimated size of the SE from the CDA and MIMIC model are 22.47% and 25.45% respectively. Overall, the MIMIC and CDA models are both showing a slight decreasing trend for the same period. The study recommends further analysis to be conducted on economic segments in order to explore the SE activity distribution between different economic sectors; resulting in an easier way to identify, locate and monitor unrecorded businesses and also increase revenue collections and minimise non-compliance for different sectors.
Journal Article
Organized crime in the fisheries sector threatens a sustainable ocean economy
The threat of criminal activity in the fisheries sector has concerned the international community for a number of years. In more recent times, the presence of organized crime in fisheries has come to the fore. In 2008, the United Nations General Assembly asked all states to contribute to increasing our understanding the connection between illegal fishing and transnational organized crime at sea. Policy-makers, researchers and members of civil society are increasing their knowledge of the dynamics and destructiveness of the blue shadow economy and the role of organized crime within this economy. Anecdotal, scientific and example-based evidence of the various manifestations of organized crime in fisheries, its widespread adverse impacts on economies, societies and the environment globally and its potential security consequences is now publicly available. Here we present the current state of knowledge on organized crime in the fisheries sector. We show how the many facets of organized crime in this sector, including fraud, drug trafficking and forced labour, hinder progress towards the development of a sustainable ocean economy. With reference to worldwide promising practices, we highlight practical opportunities for action to address the problem. We emphasize the need for a shared understanding of the challenge and for the implementation of intelligence-led, skills-based cooperative law enforcement action at a global level and a community-based approach for targeting organized crime in the supply chain of organized criminal networks at a local level, facilitated by legislative frameworks and increased transparency.
The authors review how the presence of organized crime in the fisheries sector hinders progress towards the development of a sustainable ocean economy and highlight practical opportunities to address this problem at both the local and the global level.
Journal Article
Identifying and Profiling Key Sellers in Cyber Carding Community: AZSecure Text Mining System
The past few years have witnessed millions of credit/debit cards flowing through the underground economy and ultimately causing significant financial loss. Examining key underground economy sellers has both practical and academic significance for cybercrime forensics and criminology research. Drawing on social media analytics, we have developed the AZSecure text mining system for identifying and profiling key sellers. The system identifies sellers using sentiment analysis of customer reviews and profiles sellers using topic modeling of advertisements. We evaluated the AZSecure system on eight international underground economy forums. The system significantly outperformed all benchmark machine-learning methods on identifying advertisement threads, classifying customer review sentiments, and profiling seller characteristics, with an average F-measure of about 80 percent to 90 percent. In our case study, we identified the famous carder, Rescator, who was affiliated with the Target breach, and captured important seller characteristics in terms of product type, payment options, and contact channels. Our research leverages social media analytics to probe into the underground economy in order to help law enforcement target key sellers and prevent future fraud. It also contributes to our understanding of the use of information technology in detecting deception in online systems.
Journal Article
GLOBAL EMISSIONS: A NEW CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SHADOW ECONOMY
Based on the STIRPAT model and the EKC hypothesis, this study provides new evidences on the economic determinants of global emissions. The system-GMM estimations are used for the sample of 106 economies in the period of 1995-2012 to investigate the influences of income level, urbanization, industrialization, energy intensity, public expenditure, trade openness, FDI inflow, and especially shadow economy on total greenhouse emissions, CO2 emissions, CH4 emissions, and N2O emissions, respectively. This study contributes to the literature in three folds. First, the industrialization energy intensity are the main drivers for all emissions (excluding N2O). While, urbanization has positive effects on emissions excluding the case of CH4. Other drivers including public spending and economic integration (proxied by trade openness and FDI inflow) are also tested with interesting findings. Second, a higher level of shadow economy increases all emissions excluding CO2. Third, the determinants of emissions vary depending on the countries’ income level. The study is supported by a battery of robustness checks and by various estimations in the short and long-run to identify the importance of emissions’ drivers.
Journal Article
Casting a Wider Tax Net
The majority of firms in developing countries are informal, yet even among registered firms, tax filing rates are low. We argue that non-filing of taxes among registered firms constitutes an important intermediate form of informality, which can be tackled cost-effectively. Using a randomized experiment in Costa Rica, we show that credible enforcement emails increased the tax payment rate (amount) by 3.4 p.p. (US$15) among previously non-filing firms. Emails that highlight third-party reports of a firm’s transactions further increased compliance. The effect persisted over two years, and treated firms became more likely to report transactions with other firms, facilitating future tax enforcement.
Journal Article
The role of shadow economies in ecological footprint quality: empirical evidence from Turkey
The purpose of this research study is to investigate the role of shadow economies in the levels of ecological footprint for the case of Turkey. Annual data set ranging from 1961 to 2014 was used with this respect. The results of this study verify the long-term and positively elastic impact of shadow economic activities on the level of ecological footprint in Turkey; that is, 1 % change in shadow economic activities results in a 1.008% change in ecological footprint in the same direction. This study, therefore, reaches a significant conclusion that in Turkey, shadow economies are long-term and essential drivers of environmental pollution.
Journal Article
Costs and Benefits to Phasing out Paper Currency
This paper explores the costs and benefits to phasing out paper currency, beginning with large-denomination notes, later extending to all but small coins and bills, and eventually those as well. It is hardly a simple issue; paper currency is deeply ingrained in the public's image of government and country, and any attempt to change long-standing monetary conventions raises a host of complex issues. The symbolic value of the euro, for example, as a flag for nascent European institutions, is hard to overstate. Nevertheless, it is important to ask whether currency in paper form has outlived its usefulness. Today, credit and debit cards are increasingly being used for even small transactions. And although today's cryptocurrencies fall far short of being true currencies -- for one thing their prices are simply too volatile -- the underlying technologies may ultimately strengthen the menu of electronic payments options.
Journal Article