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Background Data on survival and prognosis factors in incident cohorts are scarce in systemic sclerosis (SStc). To describe survival, standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and prognosis factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc), we analyzed a multicenter French cohort of incident patients and performed a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis. Methods A multicenter, French cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013. Patients were followed-up until July 1, 2016. A systematic review of the literature was carried out in MEDLINE and EMBASE up to July 2017. Meta-analysis was performed using all available data on SMR and hazard ratios of prognosis factors. Results A total of 625 patients (493 females, 446 lcSSc) were included. During the study period, 104 deaths (16.6%) were recorded and 133 patients were lost to follow-up. Overall survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years from diagnosis were 98.0%, 92.5%, 85.9%, and 71.7% respectively in the French cohort. Overall SMR was 5.73 (95% CI 4.68–6.94). Age at diagnosis > 60 years, diffuse cutaneous SSc, scleroderma renal crisis, dyspnea, 6-min walking distance (6MWD), forced vital capacity < 70%, diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide < 70%, pulmonary hypertension (PH), telangiectasia, valvular disease, malignancy, anemia, and CRP > 8 mg/l were associated with a poorer survival after adjustment. Eighteen studies (11,719 patients) were included in the SMR meta-analysis and 36 studies (26,187 patients) in the prognosis factor analysis. Pooled SMR was 3.45 (95%CI 3.03–3.94). Age at disease onset, male sex, African origin, diffuse cutaneous SSc, anti-Scl70 antibodies, cardiac and renal involvement, interstitial lung disease, PH, and malignancy were significantly associated with a worse prognosis. Anti-centromere antibodies were associated with a better survival. Conclusions Overall, our study highlights a high mortality rate in SSc patients and confirms previously described prognosis factors related to skin extension and organ involvement while identifying additional prognosis factors such as autoantibody status, telangiectasia, 6MWD, and valvular disease.

ObjectivesTo determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc).MethodsWe evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression.ResultsOf 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p<0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09).ConclusionsProgressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice.

Objective To determine the potential clinical and pathological significance of altered expression of interleukin 6 (IL-6) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods Serum IL-6 and soluble IL-6 receptor levels were measured in patients with SSc (n=68) and healthy controls (n=15). Associations between serum IL-6 level and C reactive protein, platelet count and key clinical outcomes in SSc were explored. Expression of IL-6 in skin biopsies was also examined and western blot and reverse transcription PCRanalysis were performed using cultured dermal fibroblasts. The effect of IL-6 trans-signalling on production of extracellular matrix proteins was assessed and downstream signalling pathways were examined using pharmacological inhibitors. Results Serum IL-6 level was frequently elevated in patients with SSc, particularly in those with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) with thrombocytosis and elevated acute phase markers. Prominent expression in the skin was observed in dermal fibroblasts, mononuclear cells and endothelial cells in patients with early dcSSc. In vitro experiments supported a potent profibrotic effect of IL-6 trans-signalling via the JAK2/STAT3 and ERK pathways. High IL-6 expression early in dcSSc appears to be associated with more severe skin involvement at 3 years and worse long-term survival than in those without elevated IL-6 levels. Conclusion Our results confirm the overexpression of IL-6 in dcSSc and support the potential of IL-6 as a surrogate marker for clinical outcome in this disease. The data also provide rationale for clinical studies targeting IL-6 trans-signalling as a potential antifibrotic therapy for SSc.

Objective Patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) frequently show spontaneous improvement of skin fibrosis. Our aim was to examine whether an improvement in skin fibrosis predicts lower likelihood of visceral organ progression and better survival. Methods Patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, and valid mRSS at 12±3 months follow up were included. Regression/progression of skin fibrosis was defined as a decrease/increase in mRSS >5 points and ≥25% from baseline to follow up. The outcomes included progression of lung, renal, cardiac and gastrointestinal manifestations using consensus derived definitions and all-cause death. Regressive, stable and progressive patients were compared by univariate, Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox regression analysis. Results Of 1257 included patients, 883 (70.2%) were stable, 282 (22.4%) regressive, and 92 (7.3%) progressive. Regressive patients, adjusted for baseline mRSS, baseline immunosuppression, baseline FVC, and disease duration, showed a significantly lower probability of FVC decline ≥10% than progressive patients ( p =0.00003), lower probability of all-cause mortality during follow up ( p =0.035) compared to progressive patients. .Improvement of skin fibrosis was not associated with progression of other organ manifestations. Conclusion We found that regression of skin fibrosis is associated with a lower probability of lung progression and better survival at follow up. The link between the disease course of skin and lung fibrosis in SSc can help to better stratify patients in clinical practice and enrich for ILD progressive patients in clinical trials. Key messages • Diffuse SSc patients with improvement of skin fibrosis had a lower probability of lung function progression and all-cause mortality than skin progressive patients. • This allows better risk stratification of SSc patients in clinical practice. • It could help to improve the design of clinical trials in SSc and better enrichment of ILD progressive patients.

Autologous haemopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) benefits patients with systemic sclerosis but has been associated with significant treatment-related mortality and failure to improve diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (DLCO). We aimed to assess efficacy of HSCT and use of rigorous cardiac screening in this group. We assessed patients with diffuse systemic sclerosis or limited systemic sclerosis and interstitial lung disease who were treated with HSCT as part of a study or on a compassionate basis at Northwestern University (Chicago, IL, USA) or the University of São Paulo (Ribeirão Preto, Brazil). Unselected peripheral blood stem cells were harvested with cyclophosphamide (2 g/m2) and filgrastim. The transplant regimen was a non-myeloablative regimen of cyclophosphamide (200 mg/kg) and rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin (rATG; 4·5–6·5 mg/kg). We followed patients up to 5 years for overall survival, relapse-free survival, modified Rodnan skin score, and pulmonary function tests. Five (6%) of 90 patients died from treatment-related causes. Despite standard guidelines that recommend echocardiogram for screening before transplantation, four treatment-related deaths occurred because of cardiovascular complications (one constrictive pericarditis, two right heart failures without underlying infection, and one heart failure during mobilisation), and one death was secondary to sepsis without documented underlying heart disease. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed survival was 78% at 5 years (after eight relapse-related deaths) and relapse-free survival was 70% at 5 years. Compared with baseline, we noted improvements after HSCT in modified Rodnan skin scores at 1 year (58 patients; p<0·0001), 2 years (42 patients; p<0·0001), and 3 years (27 patients; p<0·0001) and forced vital capacity at 1 year (58 patients; p=0·009), 2 years (40 patients; p=0·02), and 3 years (28 patients; p=0·004), but total lung capacity and DLCO were not improved significantly after HSCT. Overall mean DLCO was significantly improved in patients with normal baseline echocardiograms (p=0·005) or electrocardiographs (p=0·05). Autologous HSCT with a non-myeloablative regimen of cyclophosphamide and rATG with a non-selected autograft results in sustained improvement in skin thickness and forced vital capacity. DLCO is affected by baseline cardiac function. Guidelines for cardiac screening of patients with systemic sclerosis to assess treatment-related risk from pulmonary artery hypertension, primary cardiac involvement, or pericardial disease should be reconsidered and updated. None.

We retrospectively evaluated the efficacy of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) in 18 patients with rapidly progressive diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (rp-dcSSc), and compared their disease outcomes with those of 36 demographically- and clinically-matched patients treated with conventional therapies. Cutaneous involvement, by performing modified Rodnan skin score (mRss), lung diffusion capacity, by measuring diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), and disease activity, by applying the European Scleroderma Study Group (ESSG) scoring system, were the outcome variables measured at the baseline time and then every 12 months for the following 60 months in both the AHSCT-treated patients and the control group. In the AHSCT group, treatment-related mortality was 5.6%. In this group, both mRss and ESSG scores showed a significant reduction 1 year after AHSCT ( P <0.002); and these results were maintained until the end of follow-up. Conversely, DLCO values remained stable during the whole period of follow-up. Survival rate of AHSCT group was much higher than that observed in the whole control group ( P =0.0005). The probability that the ESSG score and mRss would remain at a high level, and DLCO could decrease, was significantly higher in the control group as a whole and in the subgroup of control patients treated with cyclophosphamide than in the AHSCT group. This study confirms that the AHSCT is effective in prolonging survival, as well as in inducing a rapid reduction of skin involvement and disease activity, and preserving lung function in patients with rp-dcSSc.

Objective: Survival analysis of a series of 366 consecutive patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods: Clinical and laboratory data were evaluated from 1983 until 2005 using a standard protocol. The female/male ratio was 315/51. The mean (SD) age of the patients was 56.8 (12.2) years. The duration of disease was 12 (5–19) years with a median follow-up of 6 (3–12) years. Results: Kaplan–Meier univariate analysis showed that renal, cardiac involvement, pigmentation disturbances, malabsorption, a forced vital capacity <50%, diffuse scleroderma, presence of early malignancy, anaemia, and increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were signs of unfavourable prognosis, whereas anti-centromere antibodies were indicators of a good survival. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model the presence of diffuse scleroderma, renal involvement, coexistence of a malignant disease, and increased ESR were poor independent prognostic signs. Elderly age at the onset of disease also caused an unfavourable outcome. A total of 86 SSc-related deaths were recorded during the follow-up. Of them, 65% were attributed to cardiorespiratory manifestation of disease. Tumour associated early death was found in 12 cases (14%). Conclusions: In addition to the well-known factors influencing the outcome (diffuse subset, internal organ involvements, and inflammatory signs), the coexistence of scleroderma with a malignancy also causes a poor outcome.

[...]the authors make the point that HSCT should be considered as first-line treatment for selected patients with systemic sclerosis, but they do not explain which patients, nor corroborate this with evidence.

Because non-invasive techniques such as MRI are unable to exclude pulmonary vascular disease with confidence,10 right heart catheterisation with a fluid challenge will improve screening for pulmonary hypertension and cardiac dysfunction.