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What do test scores miss?
Teachers affect a variety of student outcomes through their influence on both cognitive and noncognitive skill. I proxy for students’ noncognitive skill using non–test score behaviors. These behaviors include absences, suspensions, course grades, and grade repetition in ninth grade. Teacher effects on test scores and those on behaviors are weakly correlated. Teacher effects on behaviors predict larger impacts on high school completion and other longer-run outcomes than their effects on test scores. Relative to using only test score measures, using effects on both test score and noncognitive measures more than doubles the variance of predictable teacher impacts on longer-run outcomes.
Journal Article
Wee Sing Mother Goose
Over seventy traditional songs and rhymes set to music, from 'Jack and Jill' to 'Humpty Dumpty,' for children of all ages.
Book
Cognitive Aging
For most Americans, staying \"mentally sharp\" as they age is a very high priority. Declines in memory and decision-making abilities may trigger fears of Alzheimer's disease or other neurodegenerative diseases. However, cognitive aging is a natural process that can have both positive and negative effects on cognitive function in older adults - effects that vary widely among individuals. At this point in time, when the older population is rapidly growing in the United States and across the globe, it is important to examine what is known about cognitive aging and to identify and promote actions that individuals, organizations, communities, and society can take to help older adults maintain and improve their cognitive health.
Cognitive Aging assesses the public health dimensions of cognitive aging with an emphasis on definitions and terminology, epidemiology and surveillance, prevention and intervention, education of health professionals, and public awareness and education. This report makes specific recommendations for individuals to reduce the risks of cognitive decline with aging. Aging is inevitable, but there are actions that can be taken by individuals, families, communities, and society that may help to prevent or ameliorate the impact of aging on the brain, understand more about its impact, and help older adults live more fully and independent lives. Cognitive aging is not just an individual or a family or a health care system challenge. It is an issue that affects the fabric of society and requires actions by many and varied stakeholders. Cognitive Aging offers clear steps that individuals, families, communities, health care providers and systems, financial organizations, community groups, public health agencies, and others can take to promote cognitive health and to help older adults live fuller and more independent lives. Ultimately, this report calls for a societal commitment to cognitive aging as a public health issue that requires prompt action across many sectors.
eBook
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if the forecaster maximizes the expected score for an observation drawn from the distributionF if he or she issues the probabilistic forecast F, rather than G ≠ F. It is strictly proper if the maximum is unique. In prediction problems, proper scoring rules encourage the forecaster to make careful assessments and to be honest. In estimation problems, strictly proper scoring rules provide attractive loss and utility functions that can be tailored to the problem at hand. This article reviews and develops the theory of proper scoring rules on general probability spaces, and proposes and discusses examples thereof. Proper scoring rules derive from convex functions and relate to information measures, entropy functions, and Bregman divergences. In the case of categorical variables, we prove a rigorous version of the Savage representation. Examples of scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive densities include the logarithmic, spherical, pseudospherical, and quadratic scores. The continuous ranked probability score applies to probabilistic forecasts that take the form of predictive cumulative distribution functions. It generalizes the absolute error and forms a special case of a new and very general type of score, the energy score. Like many other scoring rules, the energy score admits a kernel representation in terms of negative definite functions, with links to inequalities of Hoeffding type, in both univariate and multivariate settings. Proper scoring rules for quantile and interval forecasts are also discussed. We relate proper scoring rules to Bayes factors and to cross-validation, and propose a novel form of cross-validation known as random-fold cross-validation. A case study on probabilistic weather forecasts in the North American Pacific Northwest illustrates the importance of propriety. We note optimum score approaches to point and quantile estimation, and propose the intuitively appealing interval score as a utility function in interval estimation that addresses width as well as coverage.
Journal Article
Early versus delayed hip arthroplasty for femoral neck fractures in the elderly: a comparative study on multidimensional recovery
The incidence of femoral neck fractures in the elderly is increasing due to global population aging, posing a significant public health challenge. The optimal timing for surgical intervention remains controversial. To determine if early surgical intervention reduces complications and enhances therapeutic efficacy in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures undergoing hip arthroplasty.
To compare the effects of surgery performed ≤48 h (early) versus >48 h (late) after injury on 30-day complications and 1-year integrated somatic-psychosocial recovery.
A retrospective cohort study enrolled 168 consecutive patients aged ≥65 years with Garden-IV femoral neck fracture who underwent hip arthroplasty between January 2023 and December 2024. 77 patients were operated on within 48 h and 91 after 48 h. The primary endpoint was the 30-day composite complication rate; secondary endpoints included length of stay (LOS), haemoglobin drop, inflammatory biomarkers, Harris Hip Score (HHS), Forgotten Joint Score (FJS), 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) scale.
Early surgery reduced the 30-day composite complication rate to 29.9% versus 60.4% in the late group (χ
= 15.670,
< 0.001, ARR = 30.5, 95%CI:(16.2 to 44.9%)), driven by lower incidences of hypoalbuminaemia (3.9% vs. 24.2%, χ
= 13.542,
< 0.001, ARR = 20.3, 95%CI:(10.5 to 30.1%)) and joint pain (1.3% vs. 11.0%, χ
= 6.401,
= 0.012, ARR = 9.7, 95%CI:(2.8 to 16.6%)). LOS was shortened by 4.6 days (t = -9.969,
< 0.001) and post-operative haemoglobin decline (115.43 ± 15.03 vs. 98.04 ± 18.48 g/L,
= 6.609,
< 0.001). At 1 month, the early group achieved 10.9 points higher HHS (79.12 ± 4.37 vs. 68.24 ± 8.06,
= 11.090,
< 0.001) and 13.3 points higher FJS (68.74 ± 7.10 vs. 55.46 ± 9.56,
= 10.308,
< 0.001); the advantage persisted at 3 months but disappeared at 6 months. GDS-15 scores were 2.2, 2.7 and 2.0 points lower at 1, 3 and 6 months (1 month: 5.40 ± 3.77 vs. 7.62 ± 2.49,
= -4.546,
< 0.001; 3 months: 2.99 ± 2.57 vs. 5.64 ± 1.74,
= -7.682,
< 0.001; 6 months: 1.95 ± 1.44 vs. 3.97 ± 2.21,
= -7.114,
< 0.001). Lawton-Brody IADL Scores (1 month: 26.29 ± 11.39 vs. 34.37 ± 3.75,
= -5.962,
< 0.001; 3 months: 23.27 ± 9.86 vs. 32.47 ± 4.17,
= -7.630,
< 0.001; 6 months: 20.84 ± 6.37 vs. 29.27 ± 8.06,
= -77.571,
< 0.001). No differences were observed in intra-operative blood loss, operative time, 90-day readmission or 1-year mortality.
Hip arthroplasty performed within 48 h after femoral neck fracture in the elderly significantly decreases early complications, shortens hospitalisation, accelerates functional recovery and sustains better mood and daily activity without increasing intra-operative risk or late mortality.
Journal Article
How Much Does Education Improve Intelligence? A Meta-Analysis
Intelligence test scores and educational duration are positively correlated. This correlation could be interpreted in two ways: Students with greater propensity for intelligence go on to complete more education, or a longer education increases intelligence. We meta-analyzed three categories of quasiexperimental studies of educational effects on intelligence: those estimating education-intelligence associations after controlling for earlier intelligence, those using compulsory schooling policy changes as instrumental variables, and those using regression-discontinuity designs on school-entry age cutoffs. Across 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets involving over 600,000 participants, we found consistent evidence for beneficial effects of education on cognitive abilities of approximately 1 to 5 IQ points for an additional year of education. Moderator analyses indicated that the effects persisted across the life span and were present on all broad categories of cognitive ability studied. Education appears to be the most consistent, robust, and durable method yet to be identified for raising intelligence.
Journal Article