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Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90%of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

Barystatic sea level rise (SLR) caused by the addition of freshwater to the ocean from melting ice can in principle be recorded by a reduction in seawater salinity, but detection of this signal has been hindered by sparse data coverage and the small trends compared to natural variability. Here, we develop an autoregressive machine learning method to estimate salinity changes in the global ocean from 2001 to 2019 that reduces uncertainties in ocean freshening trends by a factor of four compared to previous estimates. We find that the ocean mass rose by 13,000 ± 3,000 Gt from 2001 to 2019, implying a barystatic SLR of 2.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Combined with SLR of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr due to ocean thermal expansion, these results suggest that global mean sea level rose by 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr from 2001 to 2019. These results provide an important validation of remote‐sensing measurements of ocean mass changes, global SLR, and global ice budgets. Plain Language Summary Global sea level rise (SLR) is caused by heating of the ocean, and by the input of freshwater from the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Global freshwater input to the oceans from melting ice during the 21st century has primarily been tracked by satellites that measure changes in the mass of the ocean. Here, we show that trends in global SLR can also be accurately tracked by global observations of ocean salinity changes, as freshwater runoff from melting ice enters the ocean and dilutes ocean salinity. These results show that ocean salinity measurements are critical for monitoring global sea level changes, particularly as polar warming intensifies and the melting of ice sheets accelerates. Key Points A new full‐depth ocean salinity product yields robust global freshening trend of (35 ± 10) × 10−6 yr−1 from 2001 to 2019 Combined with estimates of sea ice loss, this freshening implies that ocean mass rose by 13,000 ± 3,000 Gt from 2001 to 2019 Sea level rise derived from ocean temperature and salinity measurements is 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr, confirming the satellite altimetry trend

19 I. 19 II. 20 III. 20 IV. 21 V. 26 VI. 29 VII. 30 31 References 31 SUMMARY: Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea‐level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under‐appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

Climate change is driving ecological shifts in coastal regions of the world, where low topographic relief makes ecosystems particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, salinization, storm surge, and other effects of global climate change. The consequences of rising water tables and salinity can penetrate well inland, and lead to particularly dramatic changes in freshwater forested wetlands dominated by tree species with low salt tolerance. The resulting loss of coastal forests could have significant implications to the coastal carbon cycle. We quantified the rates of vegetation change including land loss, forest loss, and shrubland expansion in North Carolina’s largest coastal wildlife refuge over 35 yr. Despite its protected status, and in the absence of any active forest management, 32% (31,600 hectares) of the refuge area has changed landcover classification during the study period. A total of 1,151 hectares of land was lost to the sea and ~19,300 hectares of coastal forest habitat was converted to shrubland or marsh habitat. As much as 11% of all forested cover in the refuge transitioned to a unique land cover type—“ghost forest”—characterized by standing dead trees and fallen tree trunks. The formation of this ghost forest transition state peaked prominently between 2011 and 2012, following Hurricane Irene and a 5-yr drought, with 4,500 ± 990 hectares of ghost forest forming during that year alone. This is the first attempt to map and quantify coastal ghost forests using remote sensing. Forest losses were greatest in the eastern portion of the refuge closest to the Croatan and Pamlico Sounds, but also occurred much further inland in low-elevation areas and alongside major canals. These unprecedented rates of deforestation and land cover change due to climate change may become the status quo for coastal regions worldwide, with implications for wetland function, wildlife habitat, and global carbon cycling.

Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystems transform, store, and transport material. Across these interfaces, the dynamic exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and hydrodynamic processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. These dynamics regulate ecosystem functions and Earth’s climate, yet global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks, impeding their predictions of coastal and global responses to change. Here, we assess existing coastal monitoring networks and regional models, existing challenges in these efforts, and recommend a path towards development of global models that more robustly reflect the coastal interface. Coastal systems are hotspots of ecological, geochemical and economic activity, yet their dynamics are not accurately represented in global models. In this Review, Ward and colleagues assess the current state of coastal science and recommend approaches for including the coastal interface in predictive models.

1. Coastal wetlands store more carbon than most ecosystems globally. As sea level rises, changes in flooding and salinity will potentially impact ecological functions, such as organic matter decomposition, that influence carbon storage. However, little is known about the mechanisms that control organic matter loss in coastal wetlands at the landscape scale. As sea level rises, how will the shift from fresh to salt-tolerant plant communities impact organic matter decomposition? Do longterm, plant-mediated, effects of sea-level rise differ from direct effects of elevated salinity and flooding? 2. We identified internal and external factors that regulated indirect and direct pathways of sea-level rise impacts, respectively, along a landscape-scale salinity gradient that incorporated changes in wetland type (fresh, oligohaline, mesohaline and polyhaline marshes). We found that indirect and direct impacts of sea-level rise had opposing effects on organic matter decomposition. 3. Salinity had an indirect effect on litter decomposition that was mediated through litter quality. Despite significant variation in environmental conditions along the landscape gradient, the best predictors of above- and below-ground litter decomposition were internal drivers, initial litter nitrogen content and initial litter lignin content respectively. Litter decay constants were greatest in the oligohaline marsh and declined with increasing salinity, and the fraction of litter remaining (asymptote) was greatest in the mesohaline marsh. In contrast, direct effects of salinity and flooding were positive. External drivers, salinity and flooding, stimulated cellulytic activity, which was highest in the polyhaline marsh. 4. Synthesis. Our results indicate that as sea level rises, initial direct effects of salinity will stimulate decay of labile carbon, but over time as plant communities shift from fresh to polyhaline marsh, litter decay will decline, yielding greater potential for long-term carbon storage. These findings highlight the importance of quantifying carbon loss at multiple temporal scales, not only in coastal wetlands but also in other ecosystems where plant-mediated responses to climate change will have significant impacts on carbon cycling.

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate-change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: (1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, (2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and (3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to drought and sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here, we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition.

Mangrove forests are among the world’s most productive and carbon-rich ecosystems. Despite growing understanding of factors controlling mangrove forest soil carbon stocks, there is a need to advance understanding of the speed of peat development beneath maturing mangrove forests, especially in created and restored mangrove forests that are intended to compensate for ecosystem functions lost during mangrove forest conversion to other land uses. To better quantify the rate of soil organic matter development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests, we measured ecosystem changes across a 25-yr chronosequence.We compared ecosystem properties in created, maturing mangrove forests to adjacent natural mangrove forests.We also quantified site-specific changes that occurred between 2010 and 2016. Soil organic matter accumulated rapidly beneath maturing mangrove forests as sandy soils transitioned to organic-rich soils (peat). Within 25 yr, a 20-cm deep peat layer developed. The time required for created mangrove forests to reach equivalency with natural mangrove forests was estimated as (1) <15 yr for herbaceous and juvenile vegetation, (2) ~55 yr for adult trees, (3) ~25 yr for the upper soil layer (0–10 cm), and (4) ~45–80 yr for the lower soil layer (10–30 cm). For soil elevation change, the created mangrove forests were equivalent to or surpassed natural mangrove forests within the first 5 yr. A comparison to chronosequence studies from other ecosystems indicates that the rate of soil organic matter accumulation beneath maturing mangrove forests may be among the fastest globally. In most peatland ecosystems, soil organic matter formation occurs slowly (over centuries, millennia); however, these results show that mangrove peat formation can occur within decades. Peat development, primarily due to subsurface root accumulation, enables mangrove forests to sequester carbon, adjust their elevation relative to sea level, and adapt to changing conditions at the dynamic land–ocean interface. In the face of climate change and rising sea levels, coastal managers are increasingly concerned with the longevity and functionality of coastal restoration efforts. Our results advance understanding of the pace of ecosystem development in created, maturing mangrove forests, which can improve predictions of mangrove forest responses to global change and ecosystem restoration.

Coastal communities rely on levees and seawalls as critical protection against sea-level rise; in the United States alone, $300 billion in shoreline armoring costs are forecast by 2100. However, despite the local flood risk reduction benefits, these structures can exacerbate flooding and associated damages along other parts of the shoreline—particularly in coastal bays and estuaries, where nearly 500 million people globally are at risk from sealevel rise. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the economic impact of this dynamic, however, are poorly understood. Here we combine hydrodynamic and economic models to assess the extent of both local and regional flooding and damages expected from a range of shoreline protection and sea-level rise scenarios in San Francisco Bay, California. We find that protection of individual shoreline segments (5 to 75 km) can increase flooding in other areas by as much as 36 million m³ and damages by $723 million for a single flood event and in some cases can even cause regional flood damages that exceed the local damages prevented from protection. We also demonstrate that strategic flooding of certain shoreline segments, such as those with gradually sloping baylands and space for water storage, can help alleviate flooding and damages along other stretches of the coastline. By matching the scale of the economic assessment to the scale of the threat, we reveal the previously uncounted costs associated with uncoordinated adaptation actions and demonstrate that a regional planning perspective is essential for reducing shared risk and wisely spending adaptation resources in coastal bays.