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Pigmented microalgae inhabiting snow and ice environments lower the albedo of glacier and ice-sheet surfaces, significantly enhancing surface melt. Our ability to accurately predict their role in glacier and ice-sheet surface mass balance is limited by the current lack of empirical data to constrain their representation in predictive models. Here we present new empirical optical properties for snow and ice algae and incorporate them in a radiative transfer model to investigate their impact on snow and ice surface albedo. We found ice algal cells to be more efficient absorbers than snow algal cells, but their blooms had comparable impact on surface albedo due to the different photic conditions of their habitats. We then used the model to reconstruct the effect of ice algae on bare ice albedo spectra collected at our field site in southern Greenland, where blooms dropped the albedo locally by between 3 and 43%, equivalent to 1–10 L m$^{-2}$ d$^{-1}$ of melted ice. Using the newly parametrized model, future studies could investigate biological albedo reduction and algal quantification from remote hyperspectral and multispectral imagery.

Accurately quantifying all the components of the surface energy balance (SEB) is a prerequisite for the reliable estimation of surface melt and the surface mass balance over ice and snow. This study quantifies the SEB closure by comparing the energy available for surface melt, determined from continuous measurements of radiative fluxes and turbulent heat fluxes, to the surface ablation measured on the Greenland ice sheet between 2003 and 2023. We find that the measured daily energy available for surface melt exceeds the observed surface melt by on average 18 ± 30 W m−2 for snow and 12 ± 54 W m−2 for ice conditions (mean ± SD), which corresponds to 46 and 10% of the average energy available for surface melt, respectively. When the surface is not melting, the daily SEB is on average closed within 5 W m−2. Based on the inter-comparison of different ablation sensors and radiometers installed on different stations, and on the evaluation of modelled turbulent heat fluxes, we conclude that measurement uncertainties prevent a better daily to sub-daily SEB closure. These results highlight the need and challenges in obtaining accurate long-term in situ SEB observations for the proper evaluation of climate models and for the validation of remote sensing products.

A Fast Ice Prediction System (FIPS) was constructed and is the first regional land-fast sea-ice forecasting system for the Antarctic. FIPS had two components: (1) near-real-time information on the ice-covered area from MODIS and SAR imagery that revealed, tidal cracks, ridged and rafted ice regions; (2) a high-resolution 1-D thermodynamic snow and ice model (HIGHTSI) that was extended to perform a 2-D simulation on snow and ice evolution using atmospheric forcing from ECMWF: either using ERA-Interim reanalysis (in hindcast mode) or HERS operational 10-day predictions (in forecast mode). A hindcast experiment for the 2015 season was in good agreement with field observations, with a mean bias of 0.14 ± 0.07 m and a correlation coefficient of 0.98 for modeled ice thickness. The errors are largely caused by a cold bias in the atmospheric forcing. The thick snow cover during the 2015 season led to modeled formation of extensive snow ice and superimposed ice. The first FIPS operational service was performed during the 2017/18 season. The system predicted a realistic ice thickness and onset of snow surface melt as well as the area of internal ice melt. The model results on the snow and ice properties were considered by the captain of R/V Xuelong when optimizing a low-risk route for on-ice transportation through fast ice to the coastal Zhongshan Station.

The surface flooding of Antarctic sea ice in summer covers 50% or more of the sea-ice area in the major summer ice packs, the western Weddell and the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas. Two CRREL ice mass-balance buoys were deployed on the Amundsen Sea pack in late December 2010 from the icebreaker Oden, bridging the summer period (January–February 2011). Temperature records from thermistors embedded vertically in the snow and ice showed progressive increases in the depth of the flooded layer (up to 0.3–0.35 m) on the ice cover during January and February. While the snow depth was relatively unchanged from accumulation (<10 cm), ice thickness decreased by up to a meter from bottom melting during this period. Contemporaneous with the high bottom melting, under-ice water temperatures up to 1°C above the freezing point were found. The high temperature arises from solar heating of the upper mixed layer which can occur when ice concentration in the local area falls and lower albedo ocean water is exposed to radiative heating. The higher proportion of snow ice found in the Amundsen Sea pack ice therefore results from both winter snowfall and summer ice bottom melt found here that can lead to extensive surface flooding.

This paper presents a sea ice prognostic model involving a one‐dimensional thermodynamic diffusion model, nudging satellite‐derived snow/ice temperatures, and two‐dimensional Lagrangian ice tracking. The aim of the model is to produce the evolvement of the physical properties of the snow and ice over the Arctic Ocean during the winter season. While the one‐dimensional column process solves the solution at a specific time and location, the evolvement of physical properties of the same ice target can be continuously simulated along the trajectory of ice movement determined by the Lagrangian tracking method. The main inputs were reanalysis‐based atmospheric forcings, thermal conditions constrained through nudging of snow skin temperature and snow‐ice interface temperature, and satellite‐derived ice motion vectors. The simulation results showed that the model can successfully reproduce well‐known regional features and geographical distributions of snow depth and ice thickness. The model‐simulated variables (i.e., snow depth, total freeboard, ice freeboard, ice thickness, and temperature) showed high correlations with the in situ or satellite measurements. In particular, the simulated temperatures were in excellent agreement with drifting buoy measurements. Since the nudging of the satellite‐derived temperature data into the model improved the thermal structure considerably, these data appear to be a key element for the successful simulation of other variables as well. Plain Language Summary The forecast skill in the polar region is still much lower than for other regions in the globe. One of the main reasons is the poor surface characterization including the surface emissivity, which determines the degree of radiation emission at the surface. Aiming at providing necessary emissivity data over the Arctic Ocean, we developed a one‐dimensional thermodynamic vertical heat transfer model for simulating physical states of snow and ice (e.g., their distributions and depths, thermal states, grain sizes) during the winter. The comparison against in situ observations and satellite measurements indicates that the model can simulate well‐known regional characteristics and geographic distributions of the snow and ice, which can be utilized for improving the surface characterization of the snow and sea ice over the Arctic during the winter. Key Points A prognostic model to simulate physical states of multilayered snow/sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during winter was implemented Satellite‐derived temperatures were nudged into the model to constrain the thermal structure of the snow‐ice column layer Snow depth and ice thickness and their thermal structures were well simulated, compared to in situ observations and satellite estimates

We offer a view of the Antarctic sea ice cover from lidar (ICESat-2) and radar (CryoSat-2) altimetry, with retrievals of freeboard, snow depth, and ice thickness that span an 8-month winter between 1 April and 16 November 2019. Snow depths are from freeboard differences. The multiyear ice observed in the West Weddell sector is the thickest, with a mean sector thickness > 2 m. The thinnest ice is found near polynyas (Ross Sea and Ronne Ice Shelf) where new ice areas are exported seaward and entrained in the surrounding ice cover. For all months, the results suggest that ∼ 65 %–70 % of the total freeboard is comprised of snow. The remarkable mechanical convergence in coastal Amundsen Sea, associated with onshore winds, was captured by ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2. We observe a corresponding correlated increase in freeboards, snow depth, and ice thickness. While the spatial patterns in the freeboard, snow depth, and thickness composites are as expected, the observed seasonality in these variables is rather weak. This most likely results from competing processes (snowfall, snow redistribution, snow and ice formation, ice deformation, and basal growth and melt) that contribute to uncorrelated changes in the total and radar freeboards. Evidence points to biases in CryoSat-2 estimates of ice freeboard of at least a few centimeters from high salinity snow (> 10) in the basal layer resulting in lower or higher snow depth and ice thickness retrievals, although the extent of these areas cannot be established in the current data set. Adjusting CryoSat-2 freeboards by 3–6 cm gives a circumpolar ice volume of 17 900–15 600 km3 in October, for an average thickness of ∼ 1.29–1.13 m. Validation of Antarctic sea ice parameters remains a challenge, as there are no seasonally and regionally diverse data sets that could be used to assess these large-scale satellite retrievals.

Changes in forest disturbance are likely to be greatest in coniferous forests and the boreal biome, according to a review of global climate change effects on biotic and abiotic forest disturbance agents and their interactions. Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

The decline of the Arctic cryosphere during recent decades has lowered the region’s surface albedo, reducing its ability to reflect solar radiation back to space. It is not clear what role the Antarctic cryosphere plays in this regard, but new remote-sensing-based techniques and datasets have recently opened the possibility to investigate its role. Here, we leverage these to show that the surface albedo reductions from sustained post-2000 losses in Arctic snow and ice cover equate to increasingly positive snow and ice albedo feedback relative to a 1982–1991 baseline period, with a decadal trend of +0.08 ± 0.04 W m–2 decade–1 between 1992 and 2015. During the same period, the expansion of the Antarctic sea-ice pack generated a negative feedback, with a decadal trend of −0.06 ± 0.02 W m–2 decade–1. However, substantial Antarctic sea-ice losses during 2016–2018 completely reversed the trend, increasing the three-year mean combined Arctic and Antarctic snow and ice albedo feedback to +0.26 ± 0.15 W m–2. This reversal highlights the importance of Antarctic sea-ice loss to the global snow and ice albedo feedback. The 1992–2018 mean feedback is equivalent to approximately 10% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the same period; the share may rise markedly should 2016–2018 snow and ice conditions become common, although increasing long-wave emissions will probably mediate the impact on the total radiative-energy budget.

Changes in climate are amplified in the Arctic region. An analysis of the CMIP5 state-of-the-art climate models reveals that temperature feedbacks are the dominant factor in this amplification, whereas the change in reflectivity of the Earth’s surface as sea ice and snow melt makes only a secondary contribution. Climate change is amplified in the Arctic region. Arctic amplification has been found in past warm 1 and glacial 2 periods, as well as in historical observations 3 , 4 and climate model experiments 5 , 6 . Feedback effects associated with temperature, water vapour and clouds have been suggested to contribute to amplified warming in the Arctic, but the surface albedo feedback—the increase in surface absorption of solar radiation when snow and ice retreat—is often cited as the main contributor 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 . However, Arctic amplification is also found in models without changes in snow and ice cover 11 , 12 . Here we analyse climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive to quantify the contributions of the various feedbacks. We find that in the simulations, the largest contribution to Arctic amplification comes from a temperature feedbacks: as the surface warms, more energy is radiated back to space in low latitudes, compared with the Arctic. This effect can be attributed to both the different vertical structure of the warming in high and low latitudes, and a smaller increase in emitted blackbody radiation per unit warming at colder temperatures. We find that the surface albedo feedback is the second main contributor to Arctic amplification and that other contributions are substantially smaller or even opposeArctic amplification.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, often referred to as the Third Pole, is the world's highest plateau and exerts a considerable influence on regional and global climate. The state of the snowpack over the TP is a major research focus due to its great impact on the headwaters of a dozen major Asian rivers. While many studies have attempted to validate atmospheric reanalyses over the TP area in terms of temperature or precipitation, there have been – remarkably – no studies aimed at systematically comparing the snow depth or snow cover in global reanalyses with satellite and in situ data. Yet, snow in reanalyses provides critical surface information for forecast systems from the medium to sub-seasonal timescales. Here, snow depth and snow cover from four recent global reanalysis products, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), are inter-compared over the TP region. The reanalyses are evaluated against a set of 33 in situ station observations, as well as against the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow cover and a satellite microwave snow depth dataset. The high temporal correlation coefficient (0.78) between the IMS snow cover and the in situ observations provides confidence in the station data despite the relative paucity of in situ measurement sites and the harsh operating conditions. While several reanalyses show a systematic overestimation of the snow depth or snow cover, the reanalyses that assimilate local in situ observations or IMS snow cover are better capable of representing the shallow, transient snowpack over the TP region. The latter point is clearly demonstrated by examining the family of reanalyses from the ECMWF, of which only the older ERA-Interim assimilated IMS snow cover at high altitudes, while ERA5 did not consider IMS snow cover for high altitudes. We further tested the sensitivity of the ERA5-Land model in offline experiments, assessing the impact of blown snow sublimation, snow cover to snow depth conversion and, more importantly, excessive snowfall. These results suggest that excessive snowfall might be the primary factor for the large overestimation of snow depth and cover in ERA5 reanalysis. Pending a solution for this common model precipitation bias over the Himalayas and the TP, future snow reanalyses that optimally combine the use of satellite snow cover and in situ snow depth observations in the assimilation and analysis cycles have the potential to improve medium-range to sub-seasonal forecasts for water resources applications.