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The power of nothing to lose : the Hail Mary effect in politics, war, and business
\"A quarterback like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers gambles with a Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game when he has nothing to lose - the risky throw might turn defeat into victory, or end in a meaningless interception. Rodgers may not realize it, but he has much in common with figures such as George Washington, Rosa Parks, Woodrow Wilson, and Adolph Hitler, all of whom changed the modern world with their risk-loving decisions. In The Power of Nothing to Lose, award-winning economist William Silber explores the phenomenon in politics, war, and business, where situations with a big upside and limited downside trigger gambling behavior like with a Hail Mary. Silber describes in colorful detail how the American Revolution turned on such a gamble. The famous scene of Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas night to attack the enemy may not look like a Hail Mary, but it was. Washington said days before his risky decision, \"If this fails I think the game will be pretty well up.\" Rosa Parks remained seated in the White section of an Alabama bus, defying local segregation laws, an act that sparked the modern civil rights movement in America. It was a life-threatening decision for her, but she said, \"I was not frightened. I just made up my mind that as long as we accepted that kind of treatment it would continue, so I had nothing to lose.\" The risky exploits of George Washington and Rosa Parks made the world a better place, but demagogues have also caused significant harm with Hail Marys. Toward the end of World War II, Adolf Hitler ordered a desperate counterattack, the Battle of the Bulge, to stem the Allied advance into Germany. He said, \"The outcome of the battle would spell either life or death for the German nation.\" Hitler failed to change the war's outcome, but his desperate gamble inflicted great collateral damage, including the worst wartime atrocity on American troops in Europe. Silber shares illuminating insights on these figures and more, from Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump, from asylum seekers to terrorists and rogue traders. Collectively they illustrate that downside protection fosters risky undertakings, that is changes the world in ways we least expect\" -- Book jacket.
Cognitive Aging
For most Americans, staying \"mentally sharp\" as they age is a very high priority. Declines in memory and decision-making abilities may trigger fears of Alzheimer's disease or other neurodegenerative diseases. However, cognitive aging is a natural process that can have both positive and negative effects on cognitive function in older adults - effects that vary widely among individuals. At this point in time, when the older population is rapidly growing in the United States and across the globe, it is important to examine what is known about cognitive aging and to identify and promote actions that individuals, organizations, communities, and society can take to help older adults maintain and improve their cognitive health.
Cognitive Aging assesses the public health dimensions of cognitive aging with an emphasis on definitions and terminology, epidemiology and surveillance, prevention and intervention, education of health professionals, and public awareness and education. This report makes specific recommendations for individuals to reduce the risks of cognitive decline with aging. Aging is inevitable, but there are actions that can be taken by individuals, families, communities, and society that may help to prevent or ameliorate the impact of aging on the brain, understand more about its impact, and help older adults live more fully and independent lives. Cognitive aging is not just an individual or a family or a health care system challenge. It is an issue that affects the fabric of society and requires actions by many and varied stakeholders. Cognitive Aging offers clear steps that individuals, families, communities, health care providers and systems, financial organizations, community groups, public health agencies, and others can take to promote cognitive health and to help older adults live fuller and more independent lives. Ultimately, this report calls for a societal commitment to cognitive aging as a public health issue that requires prompt action across many sectors.
eBook
Global burden of disease and risk factors
This volume is a single up-to-date source on the entire global epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors with a comprehensive statement of methods and a complete presentation of results. It includes refined methods to assess data, ensure epidemiological consistency, and summarize the disease burden. Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors examines the comparative importance of diseases, injuries, and risk factors; it incorporates a range of new data sources to develop consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, severity and duration, and mortality for 136 major diseases and injuries. Drawing from more than 8,500 data sources that include epidemiological studies, disease registers, and notifications systems, Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors incorporates information from more than 10,000 datasets relating to population health and mortality, representing one of the largest syntheses of global information on population health to date.
eBook
Characterizing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa : time for strategic action
Despite a fair amount of progress on understanding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemiology globally, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the only region where knowledge of the epidemic continues to be very limited, and subject to much controversy. It has been more than 25 years since the discovery of HIV, but no scientific study has provided a comprehensive data-driven synthesis of HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) infectious spread in this region. The current report provides the first comprehensive scientific assessment and data-driven epidemiological synthesis of HIV spread in MENA since the beginning of the epidemic. It is based on a literature review and analysis of thousands of widely unrecognized publications, reports, and data sources extracted from scientific literature or collected from sources at the local, national, and regional levels. The recommendations provided here focus on key strategies related to the scope of this report and its emphasis on understanding HIV epidemiology in MENA as a whole. The recommendations are based on identifying the status of the HIV epidemic in MENA, through this synthesis, as a low HIV prevalence setting with rising concentrated epidemics among priority populations. General directions for prevention interventions as warranted by the outcome of this synthesis are also discussed briefly, but are not delineated because they are beyond the scope of this report. This report was not intended to provide intervention recommendations for each MENA country.
eBook
Making the Mexican diabetic
This innovative ethnographic study animates the racial politics that underlie genomic research into type 2 diabetes, one of the most widespread chronic diseases and one that affects ethnic groups disproportionately. Michael J. Montoya follows blood donations from \"Mexican-American\" donors to laboratories that are searching out genetic contributions to diabetes. His analysis lays bare the politics and ethics of the research process, addressing the implicit contradiction of undertaking genetic research that reinscribes race's importance even as it is being demonstrated to have little scientific validity. In placing DNA sampling, processing, data set sharing, and carefully crafted science into a broader social context, Making the Mexican Diabetic underscores the implications of geneticizing disease while illuminating the significance of type 2 diabetes research in American life.
eBook
Social risk analysis for mega construction projects based on structural equation model and Bayesian network: a risk evolution perspective
PurposeMega construction projects (MCPs), which play an important role in the economy, society and environment of a country, have developed rapidly in recent years. However, due to frequent social conflicts caused by the negative social impact of MCPs, social risk control has become a major challenge. Exploring the relationship between social risk factors and social risk from the perspective of risk evolution and identifying key factors contribute to social risk control; but few studies have paid enough attention to this. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze the impact of social risk factors on social risk based on a social risk evolution path.Design/methodology/approachThis study proposed a social risk evolution path for MCPs explaining how social risk occurs and develops with the impact of social risk factors. To further analyze the impact quantitatively, a social risk analysis model combining structural equation model (SEM) with Bayesian network (BN) was developed. SEM was used to verify the relationship in the social risk evolution path. BN was applied to identify key social risk factors and predict the probabilities of social risk, quantitatively. The feasibility of the proposed model was verified by the case of water conservancy projects.FindingsThe results show that negative impact on residents’ living standards, public opinion advantage and emergency management ability were key social risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Then, scenario analysis simulated the risk probability results with the impact of different states of these key factors to obtain management strategies.Originality/valueThis study creatively proposes a social risk evolution path describing the dynamic interaction of the social risk and first applies the hybrid SEM–BN method in the social risk analysis for MCPs to explore effective risk control strategies. This study can facilitate the understanding of social risk from the perspective of risk evolution and provide decision-making support for the government coping with social risk in the implementation of MCPs.
Journal Article