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The power of nothing to lose : the Hail Mary effect in politics, war, and business
\"A quarterback like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers gambles with a Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game when he has nothing to lose - the risky throw might turn defeat into victory, or end in a meaningless interception. Rodgers may not realize it, but he has much in common with figures such as George Washington, Rosa Parks, Woodrow Wilson, and Adolph Hitler, all of whom changed the modern world with their risk-loving decisions. In The Power of Nothing to Lose, award-winning economist William Silber explores the phenomenon in politics, war, and business, where situations with a big upside and limited downside trigger gambling behavior like with a Hail Mary. Silber describes in colorful detail how the American Revolution turned on such a gamble. The famous scene of Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas night to attack the enemy may not look like a Hail Mary, but it was. Washington said days before his risky decision, \"If this fails I think the game will be pretty well up.\" Rosa Parks remained seated in the White section of an Alabama bus, defying local segregation laws, an act that sparked the modern civil rights movement in America. It was a life-threatening decision for her, but she said, \"I was not frightened. I just made up my mind that as long as we accepted that kind of treatment it would continue, so I had nothing to lose.\" The risky exploits of George Washington and Rosa Parks made the world a better place, but demagogues have also caused significant harm with Hail Marys. Toward the end of World War II, Adolf Hitler ordered a desperate counterattack, the Battle of the Bulge, to stem the Allied advance into Germany. He said, \"The outcome of the battle would spell either life or death for the German nation.\" Hitler failed to change the war's outcome, but his desperate gamble inflicted great collateral damage, including the worst wartime atrocity on American troops in Europe. Silber shares illuminating insights on these figures and more, from Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump, from asylum seekers to terrorists and rogue traders. Collectively they illustrate that downside protection fosters risky undertakings, that is changes the world in ways we least expect\" -- Book jacket.
Making the Mexican diabetic
This innovative ethnographic study animates the racial politics that underlie genomic research into type 2 diabetes, one of the most widespread chronic diseases and one that affects ethnic groups disproportionately. Michael J. Montoya follows blood donations from \"Mexican-American\" donors to laboratories that are searching out genetic contributions to diabetes. His analysis lays bare the politics and ethics of the research process, addressing the implicit contradiction of undertaking genetic research that reinscribes race's importance even as it is being demonstrated to have little scientific validity. In placing DNA sampling, processing, data set sharing, and carefully crafted science into a broader social context, Making the Mexican Diabetic underscores the implications of geneticizing disease while illuminating the significance of type 2 diabetes research in American life.
eBook
Global burden of disease and risk factors
This volume is a single up-to-date source on the entire global epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors with a comprehensive statement of methods and a complete presentation of results. It includes refined methods to assess data, ensure epidemiological consistency, and summarize the disease burden. Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors examines the comparative importance of diseases, injuries, and risk factors; it incorporates a range of new data sources to develop consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, severity and duration, and mortality for 136 major diseases and injuries. Drawing from more than 8,500 data sources that include epidemiological studies, disease registers, and notifications systems, Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors incorporates information from more than 10,000 datasets relating to population health and mortality, representing one of the largest syntheses of global information on population health to date.
eBook
Social risk analysis for mega construction projects based on structural equation model and Bayesian network: a risk evolution perspective
PurposeMega construction projects (MCPs), which play an important role in the economy, society and environment of a country, have developed rapidly in recent years. However, due to frequent social conflicts caused by the negative social impact of MCPs, social risk control has become a major challenge. Exploring the relationship between social risk factors and social risk from the perspective of risk evolution and identifying key factors contribute to social risk control; but few studies have paid enough attention to this. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze the impact of social risk factors on social risk based on a social risk evolution path.Design/methodology/approachThis study proposed a social risk evolution path for MCPs explaining how social risk occurs and develops with the impact of social risk factors. To further analyze the impact quantitatively, a social risk analysis model combining structural equation model (SEM) with Bayesian network (BN) was developed. SEM was used to verify the relationship in the social risk evolution path. BN was applied to identify key social risk factors and predict the probabilities of social risk, quantitatively. The feasibility of the proposed model was verified by the case of water conservancy projects.FindingsThe results show that negative impact on residents’ living standards, public opinion advantage and emergency management ability were key social risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Then, scenario analysis simulated the risk probability results with the impact of different states of these key factors to obtain management strategies.Originality/valueThis study creatively proposes a social risk evolution path describing the dynamic interaction of the social risk and first applies the hybrid SEM–BN method in the social risk analysis for MCPs to explore effective risk control strategies. This study can facilitate the understanding of social risk from the perspective of risk evolution and provide decision-making support for the government coping with social risk in the implementation of MCPs.
Journal Article
Validation of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire Version III and Establishment of Benchmarks for Psychosocial Risk Management in Sweden
This study presents the Swedish standard version of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire, COPSOQ III, and investigates its reliability and validity at individual and workplace levels with the aim of establishing benchmarks for the psychosocial work environment. Cross-sectional data from (1) a random sample of employees in Sweden aged 25–65 years (N = 2847) and (2) a convenience sample of non-managerial employees at 51 workplaces (N = 1818) were analysed. Internal consistency reliability was evaluated as well as the effects of sex, work sector and blue/white-collar work. Population benchmarks and mean scores for major occupational groups were computed based on weighted data. ICC(1) and ICC(2) estimates were computed to evaluate aggregation to the workplace level and Pearson inter-correlations to evaluate construct validity at individual and aggregated levels. The reliability and scale characteristics were satisfactory, with few exceptions, at both individual and workplace levels. The strength and direction of correlations supported the construct validity of the dimensions and the amount of variance explained by workplace justified aggregation to the workplace level. The present study thus supports the use of COPSOQ III for measurement at the workplace level and presents benchmarks for risk management as well as for research purposes.
Journal Article
Maternal perinatal mental health and associated factors during the first postpartum year from a longitudinal birth cohort study in Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan
During the perinatal period, women in low- and middle-income countries experience high rates of common mental disorders (CMDs). We aimed to estimate CMD prevalence at 6 and 12 months postpartum in Rahim Yar Khan (RYK), Pakistan, and identify factors associated with postpartum mental health. We conducted secondary analysis of a longitudinal birth cohort study, which was nested within the control arm of a community-based, cluster-randomized trial that enrolled pregnant women in their third trimester (n = 2,122). Mental health was assessed using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire. Factors associated with postpartum mental health were explored using mixed-effects linear regression, and associations between preconception, antenatal and postpartum CMDs were assessed using robust Poisson regression. The prevalence of CMDs was 16% and 17% at 6 and 12 months postpartum, respectively. Women who reported that their husbands were unhappy had poorer postpartum mental health, whereas high social support was associated with improved postpartum mental health. History of antenatal CMDs was associated with increased risk of CMDs at 6 and 12 months postpartum (adjusted risk ratio = 2.60 and 1.90, 95% confidence interval: 1.69–4.01 and 1.40–2.58, respectively). Mothers with identified risk factors may benefit from targeted mental health support during the perinatal period.
Journal Article