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A real-time model for predicting the quasistationary solar wind speed at the near-Earth orbit is presented. The forecast of the high-speed solar wind stream velocity is obtained with an empirical model linking the areas of coronal holes to the solar wind speed. The forecast of the slow solar wind is based on data on the observed solar wind speed from the previous solar rotation. Over the whole analyzed period from May 2010 to December 2019, the coefficient of correlation between the observed and predicted solar wind speed values is 0.45, and the standard deviation is 88 km/s. The accuracy of forecasting the speed of quasistationary solar wind streams is comparable to the results of foreign models.

A 9 day periodic oscillation in solar wind properties, geomagnetic activity, and upper atmosphere has been reported for the year 2005. To understand the energy transfer processes from the high‐speed solar wind streams into the upper atmosphere, we examined Joule heating and hemispheric power (HP) from the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) outputs for 2005. There are clear 9 day period variations in all AMIE outputs, and the 9 day periodic oscillation in the global integrated Joule heating is presented for the first time. The band‐pass filter centered at 9 day period shows that both Joule heating and HP variations are correlated very well to the neutral density variation. It indicates that the energy transfer process into the upper atmosphere associated with high‐speed solar wind streams is a combination of Joule heating and particle precipitation, while Joule heating plays a dominant role. The sensitivities of Joule heating and HP to the solar wind speed are close to 0.40 and 0.15 GW/(km/s), respectively. Key Points Nine‐day periodic oscillation in global integrated Joule heating has been reported The sensitivities of Joule heating and HP to solar wind speed Correlation of Joule heating and HP variation to the solar wind speed change

We utilize observations from the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) to study the radial evolution of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We analyze electron velocity distribution functions observed by the Solar Wind Electrons, Alphas, and Protons suite to estimate the coronal electron temperature and the local electric potential in the solar wind. From the latter value and the local flow speed, we compute the asymptotic solar wind speed. We group the PSP observations by asymptotic speed, and characterize the radial evolution of the wind speed, electron temperature, and electric potential within each group. In agreement with previous work, we find that the electron temperature (both local and coronal) and the electric potential are anticorrelated with wind speed. This implies that the electron thermal pressure and the associated electric field can provide more net acceleration in the slow wind than in the fast wind. We then utilize the inferred coronal temperature and the extrapolated electric + gravitational potential to show that both electric field driven exospheric models and the equivalent thermally driven hydrodynamic models can explain the entire observed speed of the slowest solar wind streams. On the other hand, neither class of model can explain the observed speed of the faster solar wind streams, which thus require additional acceleration mechanisms.

In a previous study, Huang et al. used the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model, one of the widely used solar wind models in the community, driven by ADAPT-GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind in the last solar cycle and found that the optimal Poynting flux parameter can be estimated from either the open field area or the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field in the open field regions. It was also found that the average energy deposition rate (Poynting flux) in the open field regions is approximately constant. In the current study, we expand the previous work by using GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind for the same Carrington rotations and determine if the results are similar to the ones obtained with ADAPT-GONG magnetograms. Our results indicate that similar correlations can be obtained from the GONG maps. Moreover, we report that ADAPT-GONG magnetograms can consistently provide better comparisons with 1 au solar wind observations than GONG magnetograms, based on the best simulations selected by the minimum of the average curve distance for the solar wind speed and density.

Microstreams are fluctuations in the solar wind speed and density associated with polarity-reversing folds in the magnetic field (also denoted switchbacks). Despite their long heritage, the origin of these microstreams/switchbacks remains poorly understood. For the first time, we investigated periodicities in microstreams during Parker Solar Probe (PSP) Encounter 10 to understand their origin. Our analysis was focused on the inbound corotation interval on 2021 November 19–21, while the spacecraft dove toward a small area within a coronal hole (CH). Solar Dynamics Observatory remote-sensing observations provide rich context for understanding the PSP in situ data. Extreme ultraviolet images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal numerous recurrent jets occurring within the region that was magnetically connected to PSP during intervals that contained microstreams. The periods derived from the fluctuating radial velocities in the microstreams (approximately 3, 5, 10, and 20 minutes) are consistent with the periods measured in the emission intensity of the jetlets at the base of the CH plumes, as well as in larger coronal jets and in the plume fine structures. Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms reveal the presence of myriad embedded bipoles, which are known sources of reconnection-driven jets on all scales. Simultaneous enhancements in the PSP proton flux and ionic (3He, 4He, Fe, O) composition during the microstreams further support the connection with jetlets and jets. In keeping with prior observational and numerical studies of impulsive coronal activity, we conclude that quasiperiodic jets generated by interchange/breakout reconnection at CH bright points and plume bases are the most likely sources of the microstreams/switchbacks observed in the solar wind.

We present simulation results of a gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event detected on 2021 October 9 by multiple spacecraft, including BepiColombo (Bepi) and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). A peculiarity of this event is that the presence of a high-speed stream (HSS) affected the low-energy ion component (≲5 MeV) of the gradual SEP event at both Bepi and ACE, despite the HSS having only a modest solar wind speed increase. Using the EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) magnetohydrodynamic model, we replicate the solar wind during the event and the coronal mass ejection (CME) that generated it. We then combine these results with the energetic particle transport model PARADISE (PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration). We find that the structure of the CME-driven shock was affected by the nonuniform solar wind, especially near the HSS, resulting in a shock wave front with strong variations in its properties such as its compression ratio and obliquity. By scaling the emission of energetic particles from the shock to the solar wind compression at the shock, an excellent match between the PARADISE simulation and in situ measurements of ≲5 MeV ions is obtained. Our modeling shows that the intricate intensity variations observed at both ACE and Bepi were influenced by the nonuniform emission of energetic particles from the deformed shock wave and demonstrates the influence of even modest background solar wind structures on the development of SEP events.

Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist duet to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is difficult. This study investigates the uncertainties in solar wind models arising from these limitations. We simulate magnetic field maps with known uncertainties, including far-side and polar field variations, as well as resolution and sensitivity limitations. These maps serve as input for three solar wind models: the Wang–Sheeley–Arge, the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation, and the European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset. We analyze the discrepancies in solar wind forecasts, particularly the solar wind speed at Earth’s location, by comparing the results of these models to a created ground truth magnetic field map, which is derived from a synthetic solar rotation evolution using the Advective Flux Transport model. The results reveal significant variations within each model with a root mean square error ranging from 59 to 121 km s−1. Further comparison with the thermodynamic Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere model indicates that uncertainties in the different models can lead to even larger variations in solar wind forecasts compared to those within a single model. However, predicting a range of solar wind velocities based on a cloud of points around Earth can help mitigate uncertainties by up to 20%–77%.

In the lower solar coronal regions where the magnetic field is dominant, the Alfvén speed is much higher than the wind speed. In contrast, the near-Earth solar wind is strongly super-Alfvénic, i.e., the wind speed greatly exceeds the Alfvén speed. The transition between these regimes is classically described as the “Alfvén point” but may in fact occur in a distributed Alfvén critical region. NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission has entered this region, as it follows a series of orbits that gradually approach more closely to the Sun. During its 8th and 9th solar encounters, at a distance of ≈16 R ⊙ from the Sun, PSP sampled four extended periods in which the solar wind speed was measured to be smaller than the local Alfvén speed. These are the first in situ detections of sub-Alfvénic solar wind in the inner heliosphere by PSP. Here we explore properties of these samples of sub-Alfvénic solar wind, which may provide important previews of the physical processes operating at lower altitude. Specifically, we characterize the turbulence, anisotropy, intermittency, and directional switchback properties of these sub-Alfvénic winds and contrast these with the neighboring super-Alfvénic periods.

The 2024 May 10 space weather event stands out as the most powerful storm recorded during the current solar cycle. This study employs a numerical framework utilizing a semiempirical coronal model, along with heliospheric upwind extrapolation with time dependence and cone coronal mass ejection (CME) models for the inner heliosphere, to forecast solar wind velocity and the arrival of CMEs associated with this event. The simulations were also carried out using the Space Weather Adaptive Simulation framework and a drag-based model (DBM) for this complex event of multiple CMEs. Predicted arrival times and velocities from these models are compared with actual observations at the Sun–Earth L1 point. These simulations reveal that three CMEs reached Earth nearly simultaneously, resulting in the extreme space weather event, followed by the arrival of a few more eruptions. The simulations accurately predicted arrival times with a discrepancy of approximately 5 hr or less for these CMEs. Further, the ensemble study of the DBM shows the sensitivity of the CME arrival time to the background solar wind speed and drag parameters. All three models have done fairly well in reproducing the arrival time closely to the actual observation of the CMEs responsible for the extreme geomagnetic storm of 2024 May 10. These rare solar storms offered a unique opportunity to thoroughly evaluate and validate our advanced models for predicting their arrival at Earth.

Slow solar wind is typically characterized as having low Alfvénicity, but the occasional occurrence of highly Alfvénic slow solar wind (HASSW) raises questions about its source regions and evolution. In this work, we conduct a statistical analysis of temperature anisotropy and helium abundance in HASSW using data from the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) within 0.25 au, Helios between 0.3 au and 1 au, and Wind near 1 au. Our findings reveal that HASSW is prevalent close to the Sun, with PSP observations displaying a distinct “U-shaped” Alfvénicity distribution with respect to increasing solar wind speed, unlike the monotonic increase trend seen in Helios and Wind data. This highlights a previously unreported population of unusually low-speed HASSW, which is found in both sub-Alfvénic and super-Alfvénic regimes. The observed decreasing overlap in temperature anisotropy between HASSW and fast solar wind (FSW) with increasing heliocentric distance suggests different underlying heating processes. Additionally, HASSW exhibits two distinct helium abundance populations, particularly evident in PSP data, with generally higher helium abundance compared to less Alfvénic slow solar wind. Moreover, the decreasing overlap in temperature anisotropy versus helium abundance distributions between HASSW and FSW with decreasing radial distance implies that not all HASSW originates from the same source region as FSW.