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The UltraViolet and infrared Sensors at high Quantum efficiency onboard a small SATellite (UVSQ-SAT) mission aims to demonstrate pioneering technologies for broadband measurement of the Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the Herzberg continuum (200–242 nm) using high quantum efficiency ultraviolet and infrared sensors. This research and innovation mission has been initiated by the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) with the support of the International Satellite Program in Research and Education (INSPIRE). The motivation of the UVSQ-SAT mission is to experiment miniaturized remote sensing sensors that could be used in the multi-point observation of Essential Climate Variables (ECV) by a small satellite constellation. UVSQ-SAT represents the first step in this ambitious satellite constellation project which is currently under development under the responsibility of the Laboratory Atmospheres, Environments, Space Observations (LATMOS), with the UVSQ-SAT CubeSat launch planned for 2020/2021. The UVSQ-SAT scientific payload consists of twelve miniaturized thermopile-based radiation sensors for monitoring incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation, four photodiodes that benefit from the intrinsic advantages of Ga 2 O 3 alloy-based sensors made by pulsed laser deposition for measuring solar UV spectral irradiance, and a new three-axis accelerometer/gyroscope/compass for satellite attitude estimation. We present here the scientific objectives of the UVSQ-SAT mission along the concepts and properties of the CubeSat platform and its payload. We also present the results of a numerical simulation study on the spatial reconstruction of the Earth’s radiation budget, on a geographical grid of 1 ° × 1 ° degree latitude-longitude, that could be achieved with UVSQ-SAT for different observation periods.

This letter presents a summary of a phenomenological study of the response of the polar stratosphere to strong solar energetic particle (SEP) events corresponding to ground level enhancements (GLEs) of cosmic rays. This work is focused on evaluation of the possible influence of the atmospheric ionization caused by SEPs upon formation of aerosol particles in the stratosphere over polar regions. Following case studies of two major SEP/GLE events, in January 2005 and September 1989, and their possible effects on polar stratospheric aerosols, we present here the results of an analysis of variations of the daily profiles of the stratospheric aerosol parameters (aerosol extinction for different wavelengths, as well as Ångstrom exponent) for both polar hemispheres during SEP/GLE events of July 2000, April 2001 and October 2003, which form already five clear cases corresponding to extreme and strong SEP/GLE events. The obtained results suggest that an enhancement of ionization rate by a factor of about two in the polar region with night/cold/winter conditions can lead to the formation/growing of aerosol particles in the altitude range of 10-25 km. We also present a summary of the investigated effects based on the phenomenological study of the atmospheric application of extreme SEP events.

We present a review of the different aspects associated with the interaction of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the corona and inner heliosphere, focusing on the initiation of series of CMEs, their interaction in the heliosphere, the particle acceleration associated with successive CMEs, and the effect of compound events on Earth’s magnetosphere. The two main mechanisms resulting in the eruption of series of CMEs are sympathetic eruptions, when one eruption triggers another, and homologous eruptions, when a series of similar eruptions originates from one active region. CME – CME interaction may also be associated with two unrelated eruptions. The interaction of successive CMEs has been observed remotely in coronagraphs (with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment – LASCO – since the early 2000s) and heliospheric imagers (since the late 2000s), and inferred from in situ measurements, starting with early measurements in the 1970s. The interaction of two or more CMEs is associated with complex phenomena, including magnetic reconnection, momentum exchange, the propagation of a fast magnetosonic shock through a magnetic ejecta, and changes in the CME expansion. The presence of a preceding CME a few hours before a fast eruption has been found to be connected with higher fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while CME – CME interaction occurring in the corona is often associated with unusual radio bursts, indicating electron acceleration. Higher suprathermal population, enhanced turbulence and wave activity, stronger shocks, and shock – shock or shock – CME interaction have been proposed as potential physical mechanisms to explain the observed associated SEP events. When measured in situ , CME – CME interaction may be associated with relatively well organized multiple-magnetic cloud events, instances of shocks propagating through a previous magnetic ejecta or more complex ejecta, when the characteristics of the individual eruptions cannot be easily distinguished. CME – CME interaction is associated with some of the most intense recorded geomagnetic storms. The compression of a CME by another and the propagation of a shock inside a magnetic ejecta can lead to extreme values of the southward magnetic field component, sometimes associated with high values of the dynamic pressure. This can result in intense geomagnetic storms, but can also trigger substorms and large earthward motions of the magnetopause, potentially associated with changes in the outer radiation belts. Future in situ measurements in the inner heliosphere by Solar Probe+ and Solar Orbiter may shed light on the evolution of CMEs as they interact, by providing opportunities for conjunction and evolutionary studies.

Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity can only be obtained using a method based upon indirect proxies, such as the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give an historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that this method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene. A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of strong solar energetic-particle (SEP) events in the past, that suggest that the present-day average SEP flux is broadly consistent with estimates on longer timescales, and that the occurrence of extra-strong events is unlikely. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the statistics of grand minima and maxima occurrence, are summarized and their possible implications, especially for solar/stellar dynamo theory, are discussed.

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are an important component of Space Weather, including radiation hazard to humans and electronic equipment, and the ionisation of the Earth’s atmosphere. We review the key observations of SEPs, our current understanding of their acceleration and transport, and discuss how this knowledge is incorporated within Space Weather forecasting tools. Mechanisms for acceleration during solar flares and at shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are discussed, as well as the timing relationships between signatures of solar eruptive events and the detection of SEPs in interplanetary space. Evidence on how the parameters of SEP events are related to those of the parent solar activity is reviewed and transport effects influencing SEP propagation to near-Earth locations are examined. Finally, the approaches to forecasting Space Weather SEP effects are discussed. We conclude that both flare and CME shock acceleration contribute to Space Weather relevant SEP populations and need to be considered within forecasting tools.

Here we review present knowledge of the long-term behaviour of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the dedicated indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis on sunspot numbers. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity is historically obtained using a method based on indirect proxies, such as cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give a historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state of the art. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that the method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene (the past ∼ 12 millennia). A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of extremely rare solar eruptive events in the past, based on both cosmogenic-proxy data in terrestrial and lunar natural archives, as well as statistics of sun-like stars. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the statistics of grand minima and maxima occurrence, are summarized and their possible implications, especially for solar/stellar dynamo theory, are discussed.

Solar eruptive phenomena embrace a variety of eruptions, including flares, solar energetic particles, and radio bursts. Since the vast majority of these are associated with the eruption, development, and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we focus on CME observations in this review. CMEs are a key aspect of coronal and interplanetary dynamics. They inject large quantities of mass and magnetic flux into the heliosphere, causing major transient disturbances. CMEs can drive interplanetary shocks, a key source of solar energetic particles and are known to be the major contributor to severe space weather at the Earth. Studies over the past decade using the data sets from (among others) the SOHO, TRACE, Wind, ACE, STEREO, and SDO spacecraft, along with ground-based instruments, have improved our knowledge of the origins and development of CMEs at the Sun and how they contribute to space weather at Earth. SOHO, launched in 1995, has provided us with almost continuous coverage of the solar corona over more than a complete solar cycle, and the heliospheric imagers SMEI (2003–2011) and the HIs (operating since early 2007) have provided us with the capability to image and track CMEs continually across the inner heliosphere. We review some key coronal properties of CMEs, their source regions and their propagation through the solar wind. The LASCO coronagraphs routinely observe CMEs launched along the Sun-Earth line as halo-like brightenings. STEREO also permits observing Earth-directed CMEs from three different viewpoints of increasing azimuthal separation, thereby enabling the estimation of their three-dimensional properties. These are important not only for space weather prediction purposes, but also for understanding the development and internal structure of CMEs since we view their source regions on the solar disk and can measure their in-situ characteristics along their axes. Included in our discussion of the recent developments in CME-related phenomena are the latest developments from the STEREO and LASCO coronagraphs and the SMEI and HI heliospheric imagers.

The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness are crucial for protecting infrastructure in space and ensuring the resilience of technological systems on Earth. Here we present GeoCME, a deep-learning framework designed to predict, deterministically or probabilistically, whether a CME event that arrives at Earth will cause a geomagnetic storm. A geomagnetic storm is defined as a disturbance of the Earth’s magnetosphere during which the minimum Dst index value is less than −50 nT. GeoCME is trained on observations from the instruments including LASCO C2, EIT, and MDI on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), focusing on a dataset that includes 136 halo/partial halo CMEs in Solar Cycle 23. Using ensemble and transfer learning techniques, GeoCME is capable of extracting features hidden in the SOHO observations and making predictions based on the learned features. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of GeoCME, achieving a Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 0.807 and a true skill statistics score of 0.714 when the tool is used as a deterministic prediction model. When the tool is used as a probabilistic forecasting model, it achieves a Brier score of 0.094 and a Brier skill score of 0.493. These results are promising, showing that the proposed GeoCME can help enhance our understanding of CME-triggered solar-terrestrial interactions.

In most of the solar cycles, activity in the northern and southern hemispheres peaks at different times. One hemisphere peaks well before the other, and at least one of the hemispheric maxima frequently does not coincide with the whole sphere maximum. Prediction of the maximum of a hemisphere and the corresponding north–south asymmetry of a solar cycle may help to understand the mechanisms of the solar cycle, the solar-terrestrial relationship, and solar-activity influences on space weather. Here we analysed the sunspot-group data from the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874 – 1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977 – 2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in the whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12 – 24 and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12 – 24 (note that solar-cycle variation of a parameter is expressed as a cycle of that parameter). The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of sunspot, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12 – 24, and to the values of the corresponding north–south asymmetry, suggest the existence of a ≈132-year periodicity in the activity of the northern hemisphere, a 54 – 66-year periodicity in the activity of the southern hemisphere, and a 50 – 66 year periodicity in the north–south asymmetry in activity at all the aforementioned epochs. By extrapolating the best-fit cosine curves we predicted the amplitudes and the corresponding north–south asymmetry of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles. We find that on average Solar Cycle 25 in sunspot-group area would be to some extent smaller than Solar Cycle 24 in sunspot-group area. However, by inputting the predicted amplitudes of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles relationship between sunspot-group area and sunspot number we find that the amplitude ( 130 ± 12 ) of Sunspot Cycle 25 would be slightly larger than that of reasonably small Sunspot Cycle 24. Still it confirms that the beginning of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle would take place around Solar Cycle 25. We also find that except at the maximum of NSGA Cycle 25 where the strength of activity in the northern hemisphere would be dominant, the strength of activity in the southern hemisphere would be dominant at the maximum epochs of the 25th sunspot, WSGA, and SSGA cycles.

An extreme geomagnetic storm has the potential to affect various technologies and activities in space and on the ground, e.g., power grids, oil and gas industries, communications, ground transportation, satellite infrastructure, global navigation satellite systems, aviation, etc. Therefore, it is considered a major source of risk by various governmental agencies and corporations at the international level. All notable space weather events (superstorms) are caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). But not every ICME leads to an extreme storm. Moreover, how does an extreme storm form? Or which explicit characteristic of ICME actually is responsible for inducing a superstorm? Here, we re-investigate the ICME characteristics that contribute to the most intense storm of the current century that occurred on 20 November 2003. Interestingly, the studied ICME magnetic cloud shows characteristics of extremely flattened (pancaked) structure i.e. quasi-planar magnetic structure (PMS). The pancaked ICME shows less adiabatic expansion than usual in the compressed direction, which leads to strong magnetic field strength, high plasma density, high solar wind speed, high dynamic pressure, and a high eastward interplanetary electric field. Here, we propose that the ICME that transformed into a quasi-PMS has the aforementioned enhanced features with strong southward magnetic field component that contributes to efficiently transferring plasma and energy into the Earth’s magnetosphere to cause the observed superstorm.