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In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

Tree crop diversification becomes a common component of farmers strategies to diversify their sources of income, to deal with price fluctuation and also to adapt to a changing environment. This study examined farmers activity in tree-crop diversification and factors that encourage rural households in tree planting. A combination of household interviews and participatory field surveys was conducted to collect primary data. Data was analyzed descriptively and quantitatively. The results show that farmers mainly engaged in planting trees with agroforestry system, even there were also some people who develop trees with monocultures system. The tree species most developed in the research area are Magnolia champaca, Azadirachta excelsa, and Anthocephalus cadamba. The diversification decisions of communities depends on age, education level, the number of family members, expenses, and assets. Farmers who have wider landholdings and relatively have high incomes will be more interested in doing tree crop diversification on their land. Of the households surveyed, the respondents have the main job as a farmer in which the average age was 50 years old and the majority had education level up to elementary school and junior high school. The average expense of the respondents was 1.437 million rupiah per month in which the average of land holding is 2.68 hectares. In southern Sumatra, farmers try to mix some tree-crop in their land in order to increase their income, to get cash income in different time (maintaining food security), and reduce some risks because the changes of environment, market and policy. Therefore, this practice can provide economic resilience for farm households.

Predictions of earthquakes worldwide by the M8-MSc algorithm, which defines locations of Times of Increased Probability (TIPs), have been tested for nearly two decades, and the authors claim a high rate of success. Thus, it might be appropriate to ask what the consequences in terms of human losses may be if the expected earthquakes should occur. The loss estimating tool QUAKELOSS also has been tested in real-time mode during the last five years with success. Therefore, it is reasonable to estimate the order of magnitude of human losses if great earthquakes should occur in TIPs. Here I compare the consequences if M 8.5 earthquakes should happen in the current TIPs of southern Sumatra and central Chile (K ossobokov and S oloviev , 2008 , centers at 4.75S/102.625E and 31.25S/71.77 W, respectively). The selection of the attenuation function is calibrated by matching theoretically calculated intensities and fatalities to the observed values in historic earthquakes. In both areas, the standard attenuation function I use is applicable. The results show that in southern Sumatra fatalities are expected to number fewer than 1,000 (possibly as much as a factor of 5 fewer), whereas they are likely to be larger than 1,000 (possibly as much as a factor six) in central Chile. These figures, however, do not account for possible tsunami effects. The difference is due to two factors. The earthquake sources are farther offshore, and there are only small settlements along the coast in southern Sumatra, whereas along the Chilean coast, large harbor cities are located in the northern part of the TIP area. Regardless of TIP predictions, large earthquakes are to be expected along the Chilean coast. Therefore, it seems advisable to implement mitigating measures in La Serena and Coquimbo, where most of the victims are expected.

Asbtract We performed tsunami waveform inversions for the Bengkulu, southern Sumatra, earthquake on September 12, 2007 ( M w 8.4 by USGS). The tsunami was recorded at many tide gauge stations around the Indian Ocean and by a DART system in the deep ocean. The observed tsunami records indicate that the amplitudes were less than several tens of centimeters at most stations, around 1 m at Padang, the nearest station to the source, and a few centimeters at the DART station. For the tsunami waveform inversions, we adopted 20-, 15- and 10-subfault models. The tsunami waveforms computed from the estimated slip distributions explain the observed waveforms at most stations, regardless of the subfault model. We found that large slips were consistently estimated at the deeper part (>24 km) of the fault plane, located more than 100 km from the trench axis. The largest slips of 6–9 m were located about 100–200 km northwest of the epicenter. The deep slips may have contributed to the relatively small tsunami for its earthquake size. The total seismic moment is calculated as 4.7 × 10 21 N m ( M w = 8.4) for the 10-subfault model, our preferred model from a comparison of tsunami waveforms at Cocos and the DART station.

Mechanism of the June 4, 2000 southern Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake (M ^sub S^=8.0) are estimated from teleseismic body waves recorded by long period seismograph stations of the global seismic network. This solution is more reasonable than those reported by USGS, Harvard CMT and ERI of University of Tokyo. The best double-couple component of this earthquake is 1.5×10^sup 21^ Nm, the compensated linear vector dipole component is 1.2×10^sup 20^ Nm, and the explosion component is -5.9×10^sup 19^ Nm. The focal mechanism is mainly left-lateral strike-slip, with a small thrust component. Nodal plane I: The strike is 199°, the dip, 82°, and the rake, 5°; Nodal plane II: The strike is 109°, the dip, 85°, and the rake, 172°. P axis: The azimuth is 154° and the plunge, 2°; T axis: The azimuth is 64° and the plunge, 10°; B axis: The azimuth is 256° and the plunge, 80°. The P-waveforms recorded at different stations show prominent directivity. The directivity shows that the Nodal plane I is the fault plane, and that the earthquake ruptured unilaterally from the northeast to the southwest, nearly perpendicular to the strike of the Java trench.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

Companies developing the Corridor Block on South Sumatra have notched another geologic success with a major southwest extension of Suban gas-condensate field. Three wells within 8 km of the nearest Suban field delineation well have penetrated a single gas pool that has a minimum gas column of 500 m in fractured pre-Tertiary granites and covers at least 72 sq km.

A group led by Santa Fe Snyder Corp. has a large oil and gas exploration and production project taking shape in Indonesia's South Sumatra basin. Exploration on the Jabung Block has identified 200-400 million bbl of crude oil, condensate, and liquefied petroleum gases and approximately 1 tcf of salable methane in five fields.

Youngest Toba Tuff glass shards found together with evidence of human occupation at two archaeological sites from the southern coast of South Africa indicate that early modern humans thrived in this region despite the eruption of the Toba supervolcano about 74,000 years ago. Early humans thrived after Toba eruption The eruption of the Toba supervolcano in Sumatra about 74,000 years ago was one of the most destructive events of the past two million years. There has been much debate about how (or whether) this eruption affected the fortunes of modern humans, who were beginning to appear in eastern Asia at the time. Curtis Marean and colleagues show that the effects of the Toba eruption were felt much further afield. They report evidence of Toba-related cryptotephra (microscopic fragments of volcanic ejecta) at two sites in South Africa that also bear evidence of human occupation during the Toba 'winter' (if it indeed occurred). The human population at those sites used advanced microlith technology and the first composite tools (hafted arrows), with more abundant and innovative production after the Toba eruption than before. This seems to be the first evidence of Toba-related ejecta in a well-studied and well-dated context. Approximately 74 thousand years ago (ka), the Toba caldera erupted in Sumatra. Since the magnitude of this eruption was first established, its effects on climate, environment and humans have been debated 1 . Here we describe the discovery of microscopic glass shards characteristic of the Youngest Toba Tuff—ashfall from the Toba eruption—in two archaeological sites on the south coast of South Africa, a region in which there is evidence for early human behavioural complexity. An independently derived dating model supports a date of approximately 74 ka for the sediments containing the Youngest Toba Tuff glass shards. By defining the input of shards at both sites, which are located nine kilometres apart, we are able to establish a close temporal correlation between them. Our high-resolution excavation and sampling technique enable exact comparisons between the input of Youngest Toba Tuff glass shards and the evidence for human occupation. Humans in this region thrived through the Toba event and the ensuing full glacial conditions, perhaps as a combined result of the uniquely rich resource base of the region and fully evolved modern human adaptation.

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is a key site for the global hydrologic cycle, and modern observations indicate that both the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation exert strong influence on its regional hydrologic characteristics. Detailed insight into the natural range of IPWP dynamics and underlying climate mechanisms is, however, limited by the spatial and temporal coverage of climate data. In particular, long-term (multimillennial) precipitation patterns of the western IPWP, a key location for IOZM dynamics, are poorly understood. To help rectify this, we have reconstructed rainfall changes over Northwest Sumatra (western IPWP, Indian Ocean) throughout the past 24,000 y based on the stable hydrogen and carbon isotopic compositions (δD and δ ¹³C, respectively) of terrestrial plant waxes. As a general feature of western IPWP hydrology, our data suggest similar rainfall amounts during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene, contradicting previous claims that precipitation increased across the IPWP in response to deglacial changes in sea level and/or the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We attribute this discrepancy to regional differences in topography and different responses to glacioeustatically forced changes in coastline position within the continental IPWP. During the Holocene, our data indicate considerable variations in rainfall amount. Comparison of our isotope time series to paleoclimate records from the Indian Ocean realm reveals previously unrecognized fluctuations of the Indian Ocean precipitation dipole during the Holocene, indicating that oscillations of the IOZM mean state have been a constituent of western IPWP rainfall over the past ten thousand years.

Coral records from a range of sites extend the index of the Indian Ocean Dipole back to 1846. Indian Ocean Dipole events increased in strength and frequency in the twentieth century, coincident with the development of direct feedbacks with the Asian Monsoon. The interplay of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Asian monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) 1 , 2 , 3 drives climatic extremes in and around the Indian Ocean. Historical 4 , 5 and proxy 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 records reveal changes in the behaviour of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Asian monsoon over recent decades 10 , 11 , 12 . However, reliable instrumental records of the IOD cover only the past 50 years 1 , 3 , and there is no consensus on long-term variability of the IOD or its possible response to greenhouse gas forcing 13 . Here we use a suite of coral oxygen-isotope records to reconstruct a basin-wide index of IOD behaviour since AD  1846. Our record reveals an increase in the frequency and strength of IOD events during the twentieth century, which is associated with enhanced seasonal upwelling in the eastern Indian Ocean. Although the El Niño Southern Oscillation has historically influenced the variability of both the IOD and the Asian monsoon 3 , 8 , 10 , we find that the recent intensification of the IOD coincides with the development of direct, positive IOD–monsoon feedbacks. We suggest that projected greenhouse warming may lead to a redistribution of rainfall across the Indian Ocean and a growing interdependence between the IOD and Asian monsoon precipitation variability.