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Sparse model identification enables the discovery of nonlinear dynamical systems purely from data; however, this approach is sensitive to noise, especially in the low-data limit. In this work, we leverage the statistical approach of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) to robustify the sparse identification of the nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) algorithm. First, an ensemble of SINDy models is identified from subsets of limited and noisy data. The aggregate model statistics are then used to produce inclusion probabilities of the candidate functions, which enables uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasts. We apply this ensemble-SINDy (E-SINDy) algorithm to several synthetic and real-world datasets and demonstrate substantial improvements to the accuracy and robustness of model discovery from extremely noisy and limited data. For example, E-SINDy uncovers partial differential equations models from data with more than twice as much measurement noise as has been previously reported. Similarly, E-SINDy learns the Lotka Volterra dynamics from remarkably limited data of yearly lynx and hare pelts collected from 1900 to 1920. E-SINDy is computationally efficient, with similar scaling as standard SINDy. Finally, we show that ensemble statistics from E-SINDy can be exploited for active learning and improved model predictive control.

Extracting governing equations from data is a central challenge in many diverse areas of science and engineering. Data are abundant whereas models often remain elusive, as in climate science, neuroscience, ecology, finance, and epidemiology, to name only a few examples. In this work, we combine sparsity-promoting techniques and machine learning with nonlinear dynamical systems to discover governing equations from noisy measurement data. The only assumption about the structure of the model is that there are only a few important terms that govern the dynamics, so that the equations are sparse in the space of possible functions; this assumption holds for many physical systems in an appropriate basis. In particular, we use sparse regression to determine the fewest terms in the dynamic governing equations required to accurately represent the data. This results in parsimonious models that balance accuracy with model complexity to avoid overfitting. We demonstrate the algorithm on a wide range of problems, from simple canonical systems, including linear and nonlinear oscillators and the chaotic Lorenz system, to the fluid vortex shedding behind an obstacle. The fluid example illustrates the ability of this method to discover the underlying dynamics of a system that took experts in the community nearly 30 years to resolve. We also show that this method generalizes to parameterized systems and systems that are time-varying or have external forcing.

Discovering governing physical laws from noisy data is a grand challenge in many science and engineering research areas. We present a new approach to data-driven discovery of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and partial differential equations (PDEs), in explicit or implicit form. We demonstrate our approach on a wide range of problems, including shallow water equations and Navier–Stokes equations. The key idea is to select candidate terms for the underlying equations using dimensional analysis, and to approximate the weights of the terms with error bars using our threshold sparse Bayesian regression. This new algorithm employs Bayesian inference to tune the hyperparameters automatically. Our approach is effective, robust and able to quantify uncertainties by providing an error bar for each discovered candidate equation. The effectiveness of our algorithm is demonstrated through a collection of classical ODEs and PDEs. Numerical experiments demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm with respect to noisy data and its ability to discover various candidate equations with error bars that represent the quantified uncertainties. Detailed comparisons with the sequential threshold least-squares algorithm and the lasso algorithm are studied from noisy time-series measurements and indicate that the proposed method provides more robust and accurate results. In addition, the data-driven prediction of dynamics with error bars using discovered governing physical laws is more accurate and robust than classical polynomial regressions.

We investigate methods for learning partial differential equation (PDE) models from spatio-temporal data under biologically realistic levels and forms of noise. Recent progress in learning PDEs from data have used sparse regression to select candidate terms from a denoised set of data, including approximated partial derivatives. We analyse the performance in using previous methods to denoise data for the task of discovering the governing system of PDEs. We also develop a novel methodology that uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) to denoise data and approximate partial derivatives. We test the methodology on three PDE models for biological transport, i.e. the advection–diffusion, classical Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piskunov (Fisher–KPP) and nonlinear Fisher–KPP equations. We show that the ANN methodology outperforms previous denoising methods, including finite differences and both local and global polynomial regression splines, in the ability to accurately approximate partial derivatives and learn the correct PDE model.

We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which typically limits the number of candidate models considered due to the intractability of computing information criteria. Using a recently developed sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics algorithm, the sub-selection of candidate models near the Pareto frontier allows feasible computation of Akaike information criteria (AIC) or Bayes information criteria scores for the remaining candidate models. The information criteria hierarchically ranks the most informative models, enabling the automatic and principled selection of the model with the strongest support in relation to the time-series data. Specifically, we show that AIC scores place each candidate model in the strong support, weak support or no support category. The method correctly recovers several canonical dynamical systems, including a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered disease model, Burgers’ equation and the Lorenz equations, identifying the correct dynamical system as the only candidate model with strong support.

Recent advances in high-resolution imaging techniques and particle-based simulation methods have enabled the precise microscopic characterization of collective dynamics in various biological and engineered active matter systems. In parallel, data-driven algorithms for learning interpretable continuum models have shown promising potential for the recovery of underlying partial differential equations (PDEs) from continuum simulation data. By contrast, learning macroscopic hydrodynamic equations for active matter directly from experiments or particle simulations remains a major challenge, especially when continuum models are not known a priori or analytic coarse graining fails, as often is the case for nondilute and heterogeneous systems. Here, we present a framework that leverages spectral basis representations and sparse regression algorithms to discover PDE models from microscopic simulation and experimental data, while incorporating the relevant physical symmetries. We illustrate the practical potential through a range of applications, from a chiral active particle model mimicking nonidentical swimming cells to recent microroller experiments and schooling fish. In all these cases, our scheme learns hydrodynamic equations that reproduce the self-organized collective dynamics observed in the simulations and experiments. This inference framework makes it possible to measure a large number of hydrodynamic parameters in parallel and directly from video data.

In this work, we blend machine learning and dictionary-based learning with numerical analysis tools to discover differential equations from noisy and sparsely sampled measurement data of time-dependent processes. We use the fact that given a dictionary containing large candidate nonlinear functions, dynamical models can often be described by a few appropriately chosen basis functions. As a result, we obtain parsimonious models that can be better interpreted by practitioners, and potentially generalize better beyond the sampling regime than black-box modelling. In this work, we integrate a numerical integration framework with dictionary learning that yields differential equations without requiring or approximating derivative information at any stage. Hence, it is utterly effective for corrupted and sparsely sampled data. We discuss its extension to governing equations, containing rational nonlinearities that typically appear in biological networks. Moreover, we generalized the method to governing equations subject to parameter variations and externally controlled inputs. We demonstrate the efficiency of the method to discover a number of diverse differential equations using noisy measurements, including a model describing neural dynamics, chaotic Lorenz model, Michaelis–Menten kinetics and a parameterized Hopf normal form.

Hybrid systems are traditionally difficult to identify and analyse using classical dynamical systems theory. Moreover, recently developed model identification methodologies largely focus on identifying a single set of governing equations solely from measurement data. In this article, we develop a new methodology, Hybrid-Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics, which identifies separate nonlinear dynamical regimes, employs information theory to manage uncertainty and characterizes switching behaviour. Specifically, we use the nonlinear geometry of data collected from a complex system to construct a set of coordinates based on measurement data and augmented variables. Clustering the data in these measurement-based coordinates enables the identification of nonlinear hybrid systems. This methodology broadly empowers nonlinear system identification without constraining the data locally in time and has direct connections to hybrid systems theory. We demonstrate the success of this method on numerical examples including a mass–spring hopping model and an infectious disease model. Characterizing complex systems that switch between dynamic behaviours is integral to overcoming modern challenges such as eradication of infectious diseases, the design of efficient legged robots and the protection of cyber infrastructures.

Many physical systems characterized by nonlinear multiscale interactions can be modelled by treating unresolved degrees of freedom as random fluctuations. However, even when the microscopic governing equations and qualitative macroscopic behaviour are known, it is often difficult to derive a stochastic model that is consistent with observations. This is especially true for systems such as turbulence where the perturbations do not behave like Gaussian white noise, introducing non-Markovian behaviour to the dynamics. We address these challenges with a framework for identifying interpretable stochastic nonlinear dynamics from experimental data, using forward and adjoint Fokker–Planck equations to enforce statistical consistency. If the form of the Langevin equation is unknown, a simple sparsifying procedure can provide an appropriate functional form. We demonstrate that this method can learn stochastic models in two artificial examples: recovering a nonlinear Langevin equation forced by coloured noise and approximating the second-order dynamics of a particle in a double-well potential with the corresponding first-order bifurcation normal form. Finally, we apply Langevin regression to experimental measurements of a turbulent bluff body wake and show that the statistical behaviour of the centre of pressure can be described by the dynamics of the corresponding laminar flow driven by nonlinear state-dependent noise.

We introduce a new estimator for the vector of coefficients β in the linear model y = Xβ + z, where X has dimensions n × p with p possibly larger than n. SLOPE, short for Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation, is the solution to $_{b \\in {\\mathbb{R}^p}}^{\\min }\\frac{1}{2}||y - Xb||_{{l^2}}^2 + {\\lambda _1}|b{|_{(1)}} + {\\lambda _2}|b{|_{(2)}} + \\cdot \\cdot \\cdot + {\\lambda _p}|b{|_{(p)}}$ where ${\\lambda _1} \\geqslant {\\lambda _2} \\geqslant \\cdot \\cdot \\cdot \\geqslant {\\lambda _p} \\geqslant 0and|b{|_{(1)}} \\geqslant |b{|_{(2)}} \\geqslant \\cdot \\cdot \\cdot \\geqslant |b{|_{(p)}}$ are the decreasing absolute values of the entries of b. This is a convex program and we demonstrate a solution algorithm whose computational complexity is roughly comparable to that of classical l₁ procedures such as the Lasso. Here, the regularizer is a sorted l₁ norm, which penalizes the regression coefficients according to their rank: the higher the rank—that is, stronger the signal—the larger the penalty. This is similar to the Benjamini and Hochberg [J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 57 (1995) 289-300] procedure (BH) which compares more significant p-values with more stringent thresholds. One notable choice of the sequence {λi} is given by the BH critical values λBH = z(1 — i · q/2p), where q ∊ (0, 1) and z(α) is the quantile of a standard normal distribution. SLOPE aims to provide finite sample guarantees on the selected model; of special interest is the false discovery rate (FDR), defined as the expected proportion of irrelevant regressors among all selected predictors. Under orthogonal designs, SLOPE with λBH provably controls FDR at level q. Moreover, it also appears to have appreciable inferential properties under more general designs X while having substantial power, as demonstrated in a series of experiments running on both simulated and real data.