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To understand the impacts of large-scale immigration on neighborhood contexts, we employ locational-attainment models, in which two characteristics of a neighborhood, its average household income and the majority group's percentage among its residents, are taken as the dependent variables and a number of individual and household characteristics, such as race/ethnicity and household composition, form the vector of independent variables. Models are estimated separately for major racial/ethnic populations — whites, blacks, Asians, and Latinos — in five different metropolitan regions of immigrant concentration — Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and San Francisco. In the cross section, the findings largely uphold the well-known model of spatial assimilation, in that socioeconomic status, assimilation level, and suburban residence are all strongly linked to residence in neighborhoods displaying greater affluence and with a greater number of non-Hispanic whites. Yet when the results are considered longitudinally, by comparing them with previously estimated models for 1980, the consistency with spatial-assimilation theory is no longer so striking. The impact of immigration is evident in the changing racial/ethnic composition of the neighborhoods of all groups, but especially for those where Asians and Latinos reside.

The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled for launch in February 2020 to monitor air quality (AQ) at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from a geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) for the first time. With the development of UV–visible spectrometers at sub-nm spectral resolution and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, estimates of the column amounts of atmospheric pollutants (O₃, NO₂, SO₂, HCHO, CHOCHO, and aerosols) can be obtained. To date, all the UV–visible satellite missions monitoring air quality have been in low Earth orbit (LEO), allowing one to two observations per day. With UV–visible instruments on GEO platforms, the diurnal variations of these pollutants can now be determined. Details of the GEMS mission are presented, including instrumentation, scientific algorithms, predicted performance, and applications for air quality forecasts through data assimilation. GEMS will be on board the Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite 2 (GEO-KOMPSAT-2) satellite series, which also hosts the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager 2 (GOCI-2). These three instruments will provide synergistic science products to better understand air quality, meteorology, the long-range transport of air pollutants, emission source distributions, and chemical processes. Faster sampling rates at higher spatial resolution will increase the probability of finding cloud-free pixels, leading to more observations of aerosols and trace gases than is possible from LEO. GEMS will be joined by NASA’s Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) and ESA’s Sentinel-4 to form a GEO AQ satellite constellation in early 2020s, coordinated by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS).

To improve hydrological predictions, real-time measurements derived from traditional physical sensors are integrated within mathematic models. Recently, traditional sensors are being complemented with crowdsourced data (social sensors). Although measurements from social sensors can be low cost and more spatially distributed, other factors like spatial variability of citizen involvement, decreasing involvement over time, variable observations accuracy and feasibility for model assimilation play an important role in accurate flood predictions. Only a few studies have investigated the benefit of assimilating uncertain crowdsourced data in hydrological and hydraulic models. In this study, we investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of static physical, static social and dynamic social sensors. We assess improvements in the model prediction performance for different spatial–temporal scenarios of citizen involvement levels. To that end, we simulate an extreme flood event that occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment  (Italy) in May 2013 using a semi-distributed hydrological model with the station at Ponte degli Angeli (Vicenza) as the prediction–validation point. A conceptual hydrological model is implemented by the Alto Adriatico Water Authority and it is used to estimate runoff from the different sub-catchments, while a hydraulic model is implemented to propagate the flow along the river reach. In both models, a Kalman filter is implemented to assimilate the crowdsourced observations. Synthetic crowdsourced observations are generated for either static social or dynamic social sensors because these measures were not available at the time of the study. We consider two sets of experiments: (i) assuming random probability of receiving crowdsourced observations and (ii) using theoretical scenarios of citizen motivations, and consequent involvement levels, based on population distribution. The results demonstrate the usefulness of integrating crowdsourced observations. First, the assimilation of crowdsourced observations located at upstream points of the Bacchiglione catchment ensure high model performance for high lead-time values, whereas observations at the outlet of the catchments provide good results for short lead times. Second, biased and inaccurate crowdsourced observations can significantly affect model results. Third, the theoretical scenario of citizens motivated by their feeling of belonging to a community of friends has the best effect in the model performance. However, flood prediction only improved when such small communities are located in the upstream portion of the Bacchiglione catchment. Finally, decreasing involvement over time leads to a reduction in model performance and consequently inaccurate flood forecasts.

We investigate the estimation of the turbulent flow around a canonical square cylinder at $Re=22\\,000$ based on temporally resolved but spatially sparse velocity data and solving the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) equations. Flow reconstruction from sparse data is achieved through the application of a nudging data assimilation technique. It involves the introduction of a feedback control term in the momentum equations which allows us to drive URANS predictions towards reference data, which are here extracted from a direct numerical simulation. Such a data assimilation approach induces negligible supplementary computational cost compared with that of a standard URANS simulation. The influence of the spatial resolution of the reference data on the reconstruction performances is systematically investigated. Using a spacing of the order of one cylinder length between data points, we already observe synchronisation of the low-frequency vortex shedding between the full reference flow and the one that is estimated by URANS. The present data assimilation procedure allows us to compensate for deficiencies in standard URANS calculations and leads to a significant decrease in temporal and spectral errors as computed by spectral proper orthogonal decomposition. Furthermore, high accuracy in terms of mean-flow prediction by URANS is achieved. When considering spacings between measurements that are of the order of the wavelength of the Kelvin–Helmholtz vortices, such phenomena in the shear layers at the top and bottom of the cylinder are correctly estimated, while they are not self-sustained in standard URANS. The influence of the structure of the feedback control term in the data assimilation procedure is also investigated.

Seasonal snowpack is an essential component in the hydrological cycle and plays a significant role in supplying water resources to downstream users. Yet the snow water equivalent (SWE) in seasonal snowpacks, and its space–time variation, remains highly uncertain, especially over mountainous areas with complex terrain and sparse observations, such as in High Mountain Asia (HMA). In this work, we assessed the spatiotemporal distribution of seasonal SWE, obtained from a new 18-year HMA Snow Reanalysis (HMASR) dataset, as part of the recent NASA High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) effort. A Bayesian snow reanalysis scheme previously developed to assimilate satellite-derived fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) products from Landsat and MODIS platforms has been applied to develop the HMASR dataset (at a spatial resolution of 16 arcsec (∼500 m) and daily temporal resolution) over the joint Landsat–MODIS period covering water years (WYs) 2000–2017. Based on the results, the HMA-wide total SWE volume is found to be around 163 km3 on average and ranges from 114 km3 (WY2001) to 227 km3 (WY2005) when assessed over 18 WYs. The most abundant snowpacks are found in the northwestern basins (e.g., Indus, Syr Darya and Amu Darya) that are mainly affected by the westerlies, accounting for around 66 % of total seasonal SWE volume. Seasonal snowpack in HMA is depicted by snow accumulating through October to March and April, typically peaking around April and depleting in July–October, with variations across basins and WYs. When examining the elevational distribution over the HMA domain, seasonal SWE volume peaks at mid-elevations (around 3500 m), with over 50 % of the volume stored above 3500 m. Above-average amounts of precipitation causes significant overall increase in SWE volumes across all elevations, while an increase in air temperature (∼1.5 K) from cooler to normal conditions leads to an redistribution in snow storage from lower elevations to mid-elevations. This work brings new insight into understanding the climatology and variability of seasonal snowpack over HMA, with the regional snow reanalysis constrained by remote-sensing data, providing a new reference dataset for future studies of seasonal snow and how it contributes to the water cycle and climate over the HMA region.

Estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation is important for understanding ecohydrological processes at catchment scales. However, this estimation is difficult in mountainous areas because ground-based observation stations are often sparsely located and do not represent the spatial variability of precipitation. In this study, we develop a Bayesian assimilation method based on data collected on the Tibetan Plateau from 1980 to 2014 to estimate monthly and daily precipitation. To accomplish this, point-scale ground meteorological observations are combined with large-scale precipitation data such as satellite observations or reanalysis data. First, we remove the terrain effects from ground observations by fitting the precipitation data as functions of elevation, and then we spatially interpolate the residuals to 5-km-resolution grids to obtain monthly and daily precipitation. Additionally, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Cross-validation methods are used to evaluate our method; the results show that our method not only captures the change in precipitation with terrain but also significantly reduces the associated uncertainty. The improvements are more evident in the main river source areas on the edge of the Tibetan Plateau, where elevation changes dramatically, and in high-altitude areas,where the ground gauges are sparse compared with those in low-altitude areas. Our assimilation method is applicable to other regions and is particularly useful formountainous watersheds where ground meteorological stations are sparse and precipitation is considerably influenced by terrain.

Gridded meteorological estimates are essential for many applications. Most existing meteorological datasets are deterministic and have limitations in representing the inherent uncertainties from both the data and methodology used to create gridded products. We develop the Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for Planet Earth (EM-Earth) for precipitation, mean daily temperature, daily temperature range, and dewpoint temperature at 0.1° spatial resolution over global land areas from 1950 to 2019. EM-Earth provides hourly/daily deterministic estimates, and daily probabilistic estimates (25 ensemble members), to meet the diverse requirements of hydrometeorological applications. To produce EM-Earth, we first developed a station-based Serially Complete Earth (SC-Earth) dataset, which removes the temporal discontinuities in raw station observations. Then, we optimally merged SC-Earth station data and ERA5 estimates to generate EM-Earth deterministic estimates and their uncertainties. The EM-Earth ensemble members are produced by sampling from parametric probability distributions using spatiotemporally correlated random fields. The EM-Earth dataset is evaluated by leave-one-out validation, using independent evaluation stations, and comparing it with many widely used datasets. The results show that EM-Earth is better in Europe, North America, and Oceania than in Africa, Asia, and South America, mainly due to differences in the available stations and differences in climate conditions. Probabilistic spatial meteorological datasets are particularly valuable in regions with large meteorological uncertainties, where almost all existing deterministic datasets face great challenges in obtaining accurate estimates.

Nearly a century of empirical research examines how neighborhood properties influence a host of phenomena such as crime, poverty, health, civic engagement, immigration, and economic inequality. Theoretically bundled within these neighborhood effects are institutions' and actors' social networks that are the foundation of other neighborhood-level processes such as social control, mobilization, and cultural assimilation. Yet, despite such long-standing theoretical links between neighborhoods and social networks, empirical research rarely considers or measures dimensions of geography and social network mechanisms simultaneously. The present study seeks to fill this gap by analyzing how both geography and social networks influence an important social problem in urban America: gang violence. Using detailed data on fatal and non-fatal shootings, we examine effects of geographic proximity, organizational memory, and additional group processes (e.g., reciprocity, transitivity, and status seeking) on gang violence in Chicago and Boston. Results show adjacency of gang turf and prior conflict between gangs are strong predictors of subsequent gang violence. Furthermore, important network processes, including reciprocity and status seeking, also contribute to observed patterns of gang violence. In fact, we find that these spatial and network processes mediate racial effects, suggesting the primacy of place and the group in generating gang violence.

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate satellite soil moisture (SM) retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) instrument, using an Ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large (> 40 000 km2) semi-arid catchment in Australia. We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation by explicitly correcting bias in soil moisture and streamflow in the ensemble generation process, and for seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided a more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE = 0.77) than the lumped model (NSE = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the \"ungauged\" inner catchments (two of them with NSE below 0.3). After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 22 and 24%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 9% in both cases; the peak volume error was reduced by 58 and 1%, respectively; the ensemble skill was improved (evidenced by 12 and 13% reductions in the continuous ranked probability scores, respectively); and the ensemble reliability was increased in both cases (expressed by flatter rank histograms). SM-DA did not improve NSE. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed satellite SM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving some characteristics of the streamflow ensemble prediction; however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM-DA does not address the systematic errors found in the model prior to assimilation.

Obtaining accurate high-resolution representations of model outputs is essential to describe the system dynamics. In general, however, only spatially- and temporally-coarse observations of the system states are available. These observations can also be corrupted by noise. Downscaling is a process/scheme in which one uses coarse scale observations to reconstruct the high-resolution solution of the system states. Continuous Data Assimilation (CDA) is a recently introduced downscaling algorithm that constructs an increasingly accurate representation of the system states by continuously nudging the large scales using the coarse observations. We introduce a Discrete Data Assimilation (DDA) algorithm as a downscaling algorithm based on CDA with discrete-in-time nudging. We then investigate the performance of the CDA and DDA algorithms for downscaling noisy observations of the Rayleigh-Bénard convection system in the chaotic regime. In this computational study, a set of noisy observations was generated by perturbing a reference solution with Gaussian noise before downscaling them. The downscaled fields are then assessed using various error- and ensemble-based skill scores. The CDA solution was shown to converge towards the reference solution faster than that of DDA but at the cost of a higher asymptotic error. The numerical results also suggest a quadratic relationship between the ℓ 2 error and the noise level for both CDA and DDA. Cubic and quadratic dependences of the DDA and CDA expected errors on the spatial resolution of the observations were obtained, respectively.