Explore the vast range of titles available.

Atmospheric blocking is an important contributor to European temperature variability. It can trigger cold and warm spells, which is of specific relevance in spring because vegetation is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures in the growing season. The spring season is investigated as a transition period from predominant connections of blocking with cold spells in winter to predominant connections of blocking with warm spells in summer. Extreme temperatures are termed cold or warm spells if temperature stays outside the 10th to 90th percentile range for at least six consecutive days. Cold and warm spells in Europe over 1979–2014 are analyzed in observations from the European daily high-resolution gridded dataset (E-OBS) and the connection to blocking is examined in geopotential height fields from ERA-Interim. A highly significant link between blocking and cold and warm spells is found that changes during spring. Blocking over the northeastern Atlantic and Scandinavia is correlated with the occurrence of cold spells in Europe, particularly early in spring, whereas blocking over central Europe is associated with warmer conditions, particularly from March onward. The location of the block also impacts the spatial distribution of temperature extremes. More than 80% of cold spells in southeastern Europe occur during blocking whereas warm spells are correlated with blocking mainly in northern Europe. Over the analysis period, substantial interannual variability is found but also a decrease in cold spells and an increase in warms pells. The long-term change to a warmer climate holds the potential for even higher vulnerability to spring cold extremes.

The spring land surface temperature (LST) over western Eurasia, which is critical for ensuring food security, shows a clear interannual variability. Based on reanalysis data and numerical simulations, we investigated the potential influencing factors and the related mechanisms of spring LST variability in mid-to-high latitudes of western Eurasia (MHWEA). The results show that the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in February, which persist into spring, can significantly affect the spring LST variability over MHWEA. Analyses indicate that the positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole SSTAs pattern tends to increase the meridional SST gradient between positive SSTAs over the midlatitude North Atlantic and negative SSTAs over the south of Greenland, which strengthens the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity and thus induces more active transient eddy activities. Correspondingly, a Rossby wave train triggered by the eddy-mediated processes originates from the North Atlantic and propagates downstream, thereby causing anomalous anticyclonic circulation over MHWEA. Meanwhile, the westerly anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic accelerate the polar front jet and provide a favorable thermodynamical condition for the tropospheric warming over the Barents–Kara Seas by bringing warm and moist oceanic air. The polar warming tends to weaken the poleward temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes and then decelerate the Eurasian midlatitude westerlies, thus dynamically contributing to the circulation changes that can affect spring LST over MHWEA. Model results suggest that the link can be generally reproduced. Therefore, the late-winter North Atlantic tripole SSTAs may act as a precursor for the prediction of spring LST over western Eurasia.

The Southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is a major region where many low-latitude glaciers are located, with spring precipitation being a major input of the glacier mass balance. This study shows that early spring precipitation has decreased significantly since 1999, which is attributed to declined moisture contribution from the far-field sources (west of 70°E) induced by the weakened subtropical westerlies. The possible physical mechanism underlying this change has also been revealed. It is found that snow-cover extent (SCE) in March reduced in midlatitude Eurasia after 1999; meanwhile, strong solar radiation during this month may have exacerbated snow melting through snow albedo–radiation interactions. These two processes led to warming and caused a strong anticyclone over midlatitude Eurasia that weakened the subtropical westerlies near 30°N. This decadal change in the subtropical westerlies led to a decrease in moisture transport upstream. As a result, the windward slopes of large terrain along the latitudinal belt near 30°N received less precipitation, and the decrease in SETP precipitation was part of this change. A further analysis shows that the positive correlation between the westerlies and precipitation has weakened since 1999.

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and significantly influences agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results show that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in the preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variance of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream teleconnections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over the Mongolian plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

This study first investigates the interannual variations in spring precipitation intraseasonal variability over southern China (SC). The results show that SC spring precipitation exhibits distinct intraseasonal variations with a period of 7–25 days. The first mode of 7–25-day precipitation intraseasonal variability (PIV) displays a monopole pattern over SC, and the PIV magnitude is largely determined by the upward motion intensity during intraseasonal precipitation events. Further analysis suggests that two atmospheric wave trains are observed during intraseasonal precipitation events, which propagate eastward from the North Atlantic along the northern and southern paths. In strong PIV years, the two wave trains can propagate to East Asia and show coordinated influences. The resultant low pressure to the west of SC causes strong upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing strong zonal vorticity and meridional temperature advection. In weak PIV years, the southern wave train can only propagate to the Bay of Bengal; therefore, the northern wave train plays a major role. The resultant low pressure is now over the upper to middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which causes relatively weak upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing weak meridional vorticity and temperature advection. Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature (SST) condition over the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea is essential for southern wave train propagation. The warming SST over the regions can intensify westerlies to its north and consequently favors the propagation of the southern wave train to SC, eventually contributing to strong PIV over SC.

As a result of the high mountains to the west and north of the plateau and the control by westerly mean flow in spring, hot and dry conditions are often observed over the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (SETP), favoring occurrences of extreme heat events there. Indeed, maximum centers and remarkable increasing trends of extreme heat (EH) days in spring are found over the region. Springtime EH events over the SETP also exhibit strong interannual variability and are closely linked to a spring-type circumglobal teleconnection (SCGT) pattern, which is the second leading mode of 200-hPa meridional wind over the North Hemisphere in spring. This SCGT shows distinctive features from the traditional circumglobal teleconnection patterns found in boreal summer and winter. It manifests as a circumglobally navigated Rossby wave train along the mid–high latitudes, which splits to a north branch along the polar jet and a south branch along the subtropical jet over Eurasia after propagating through the North Atlantic Ocean. The two branches eventually reach the SETP, forming an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the region. Hence, conditions in the SETP are controlled by significant anomalous subsidence and a clearer sky, resulting in below-normal rainfall and above-normal air temperature, favoring more EH events in the region. The SETP EH events are also closely linked to the spring-type CGT-like pattern in April and May but not in March. In addition, the influence of the foehn effect on the SETP EH is discussed.

Southern China has experienced a discernible early-spring drying trend in recent decades. This drying trend is a direct result of a severe deficiency of water vapor, which is induced by local descent anomalies and strong anomalous northerlies from the northwestern Pacific. The predominant anomalous northerlies are directly associated with two anomalous warm highs over the North Pacific (NPH) and East Asia (EAH), respectively. Anomalous easterlies along the southern edge of the NPH divert southwestward over southern Japan and form a branch of the northerlies, which merges into strong northerlies east of the EAH to construct the prevalent and deep northerly anomalies along the coast of East Asia. The NPH is related to changes in the zonal contrast of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST-Tri), whose linear trend is dominated by warming in the western Pacific. The change in SST-Tri causes more precipitation in the tropical North Pacific, where strong ascent occurs and further facilitates robust descent over the extratropical North Pacific, facilitating the formation of the NPH. The EAH results from the interaction of tropical and higher latitudinal forcing in the context of global warming. On the one hand, enhanced precipitation over the Maritime Continent associated with the change in SST-Tri induces descent anomalies of the EAH over southern China via a local Hadley cell circulation. On the other hand, a “positive–negative–positive” tripolar tendency over the North Atlantic forces a wave train, which propagates eastward, becomes intensified over the Ural Mountains, and then moves farther eastward to affect the EAH. In addition, changes in SST-Tri can also modulate the tripole pattern over the North Pacific to further contribute to the EAH.

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. In this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Ni˜no (La Ni˜na) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical centralwestern Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

Because spring precipitation in East Asia is critical for recharging water resources after dry winters, its spatiotemporal variations and related mechanisms need in-depth research. This study analyzed a leading spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over East Asia for boreal spring (March–May) during 1979 to 2017. We found that a dipole mode dominates the anomalous spring precipitation between southern China and Southeast Asia with significant interannual and decadal variations. The interannual dipole mode is attributable to the eastern Pacific (EP)-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while the decadal dipole mode is related to the decadal variation of the central Pacific (CP)-type ENSO. In the El Niño phases of both time scales, the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea and Philippines causes moisture convergence (divergence) over southern China (Southeast Asia), resulting in positive (negative) precipitation anomalies therein; the opposite occurs in the La Niña phases. The ensemble experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 confirmed that the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the EP- and CP-type ENSO can be the major drivers of the interannual and decadal dipole modes, respectively. About half of 15 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) showed that the El Niño phase of dipole mode will become dominant in the future. The individual models’ future projections however considerably vary, implying that there is still large uncertainty.