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Global burden for dengue and the evolving pattern in the past 30 years
Abstract
Background
Dengue is the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease. We present the global, regional and national burden of dengue from 1990 to 2019 based on the findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019).
Methods
Based upon GBD 2019 dengue data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, this study estimates and presents annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify trends over time to assess potential correlates of increased dengue activity, such as global travel and warming.
Results
Globally from 1990 to 2019, dengue incident cases, deaths and DALYs gradually increased. Those under 5 years of age, once accounting for the largest portion of deaths and DALYs in 1990, were eclipsed by those who were 15–49 years old in 2019. Age standardized incidence [ASIR: EAPC: 3.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.90–3.43], death (ASDR: EAPC: 5.42, 95% CI: 2.64–8.28) and DALY rates (EAPC: 2.31, 95% CI: 2.00–2.62) accelerated most among high-middle and high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. South-East Asia and South Asia had most of the dengue incident cases, deaths and DALYs, but East Asia had the fastest rise in ASIR (EAPC: 4.57, 95% CI: 4.31, 4.82), while Tropical Latin America led in ASDR (EAPC: 11.32, 95% CI: 9.11, 13.58) and age-standardized DALYs rate (EAPC: 4.13, 95% CI: 2.98, 5.29). SDI showed consistent bell-shaped relationship with ASIR, ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate. Global land–ocean temperature index and air passenger travel metrics were found to be remarkably positively correlated with dengue burden.
Conclusions
The burden of dengue has become heavier from 1990 to 2019, amidst the three decades of urbanization, warming climates and increased human mobility in much of the world. South-East Asia and South Asia remain as regions of concern, especially in conjunction with the Americas’ swift rise in dengue burden.
Journal Article
Monitoring of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Vistula basin (Poland)
The article presents the course of meteorological droughts in Vistula subcatchments in years 1981–2010 and their influence on the occurrence of hydrological droughts. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of meteorological drought on the one hand and the Standardized Water-level Index (SWI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) as indicators of hydrological drought on the other, the mutual relationships between precipitation conditions and hydrological conditions were evaluated, as well as the relationships between the two drought types. Studies were conducted for three cumulative periods of these indices, of 12, 24, and 48 months. It was determined that meteorological droughts occurred earliest in the north-western and central part of the basin, and latest in areas lying above 300 m a.s.l. and in the south of Poland. Total duration, depending on the cumulative period, for SPI comprised from 38 to 41% of the analyzed period and for SWI (35–47%) and SRI (24–51%). The strongest relationships were identified in the central part of the Vistula (0.8 <
r
< 0.85), while the weakest relationships were recorded in the foothill region (
r
< 0.5). There were also indicated non-climate-related factors influencing those relationships (underground reservoirs, diverse Vistula water resource usage for municipal and industrial intake).
Journal Article
Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey
Drought, one of the main factors threatening social life today, is examined and analyzed by its types such as meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. Thus, decision-makers need advanced methods in monitoring and assessing the drought, which is important for future plans. Multivariate drought indices were developed to allow determining the actual and real level of drought by reducing the deficiencies of current methods. In a region having three different characteristics (BSk: semiarid cold, Csa: dry summer–hot summer, and H: unclassified highland), MSDI was modeled by utilizing the data from Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Surface Runoff Index (SRI). For the period between 2003 and 2021, the precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff data were obtained from SPEI Global Drought Monitor and ERA5 databases. Gaussian function was used in establishing the copula-based joint distribution functions according to AIC, BIC, and max-likelihood assessment criteria. The R packages offering a wide range of use for drought modeling and assessment based on the multivariate drought indices were used. The calculations performed for 4 different time scales as MSDI 1-3-6-12 (soil moisture, surface hydrology, and agricultural and hydrological perspectives) showed acceptable performance in multivariate estimation of the drought. It was determined that, for all four time scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months), MSDI values obtained from modeling were more similar to SPEI values in comparison with SRI values. Considering all the data, it was determined that the years 2007 and 2016 were found to be the driest years for the basin on the 6-month scale, whereas the years 2016 and 2021 were the driest years on the 12-month scale.
Journal Article
Identification of the most suitable meteorological drought index for a region: a case study of Raigarh district in Chhattisgarh
The drought is a prominent disaster the world is facing currently. The drought identification, its characterization, and monitoring are, thus, very important to mitigate this calamity. Many drought indices have been developed for this purpose in the past; however, their evaluation is necessary to select the best suited drought index for the specific area. This study aims to analyze the meteorological drought risk across the Raigarh district of Chhattisgarh state by evaluating five popular drought indices, namely, Reconnaissance drought index (RDI) rainfall anomaly index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized anomaly index (SAI) considering all the tehsils of the district and proposes the methodology to select the best suited index for the region. The methodology has been selected in such a manner that it deals with all aspects of meteorological drought and the most suitable drought index for the region can be identified by comparing the drought indices based on the actual drought occurrence in the region which are identified by different agencies. These drought indices were computed for different assessment periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months using the historical precipitation and temperature data derived from (NASA-POWER) for the period 1981–2021. The variation in severity in terms of extreme, severe, and moderate drought events has been observed with these drought indices in the district. Maximum correlation is observed between RAI and SAI across all assessment periods. Further, the SPI is seen to have fairly good agreement with all other drought indices and it rises with increasing assessment periods. Modified Mann–Kendall test shows a significant positive trend for all drought indices (except SPEI across all assessment periods, RDI-1 and RDI-3) across all assessment periods. The SPI performs exceptionally well in capturing the actual drought conditions reported by different agencies in the Raigarh region among all other indices considered in this study. It is also observed that although SPEI which comes out to be the second most suitable index for drought identification in the study region, it was not able to capture the drought events before 1990. However, SPEI identified most of the drought years post 1990 which shows the prevalent effect of temperature on the formulation of index driven by heavy industrialization in the region post 1990. Overall results suggest that the SPI is the best-suited meteorological drought index for the Raigarh region.
Journal Article
Temporal-Spatial Variation of Drought Indicated by SPI and SPEI in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China
The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia) is an important food production area in northwest China severely affected by drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were calculated based on monthly meteorological data to explore climate change and variation in drought intensity, duration, frequency, and spatial extent in Ningxia during 1972–2011. Results show that the SPEI is more applicable than the SPI for exploring climate change and drought variation in Ningxia. The Ningxia climate experienced a significant drying tendency. Annual SPEI decreased about 0.37 decade−1 during 1972–2011. Drought was exacerbated by this drying tendency. Regional average duration, maximum duration, intensity, and frequency of drought identified by the SPEI increased by one month, three months, 0.15%, and 36.1%, respectively, during 1992–2011 compared to the period of 1972–1991. The spatial extent of drought identified by the SPEI increased about 14.4% decade−1 in the spring during 1972–2011. Spatially, drought frequency increased from north to south. Average intensity (maximum duration) of drought calculated by the SPEI increased (decreased) northward and southward from the central arid area.
Journal Article