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The second edition of Introduction to Biostatistical Applications in Health Research delivers a thorough examination of the basic techniques and most commonly used statistical methods in health research.

A practical and methodological approach to the statistical logic of biostatistics in the field of health research Focusing on a basic understanding of the methods and analyses in health research, Introduction to Biostatistical Applications in Health Research with Microsoft® Office Excel® provides statistical concepts for interpreting results using Excel. The book emphasizes the application of methods and presents the most common methodological procedures in health research, which includes multiple regression, ANOVA, ANCOVA, logistic regression, Cox regression, stratified analysis, life table analysis, and nonparametric parallels. The book is constructed around a flowchart that outlines the appropriate circumstances for selecting a method to analyze a specific set of data. Beginning with an introduction to the foundational methods of statistical logic before moving on to more complex methods, Introduction to Biostatistical Applications in Health Research with Microsoft® Office Excel® also includes: * Detailed discussions of how knowledge and skills in health research have been integrated with biostatistical methods * Numerous examples with clear explanations that use mostly real-world health research data in order to provide a better understanding of the practical applications * Implements Excel graphic representations throughout to help readers evaluate and analyze individual results * An appendix with basic information on how to use Excel * A companion website with additional Excel files, data sets, and homework problems as well as an Instructor's Solutions Manual Introduction to Biostatistical Applications in Health Research with Microsoft® Office Excel® is an excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in biostatistics and public health. In addition, the book is an appropriate reference for both health researchers and professionals.

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation involving the posterior density. In this article, we review variational inference (VI), a method from machine learning that approximates probability densities through optimization. VI has been used in many applications and tends to be faster than classical methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The idea behind VI is to first posit a family of densities and then to find a member of that family which is close to the target density. Closeness is measured by Kullback-Leibler divergence. We review the ideas behind mean-field variational inference, discuss the special case of VI applied to exponential family models, present a full example with a Bayesian mixture of Gaussians, and derive a variant that uses stochastic optimization to scale up to massive data. We discuss modern research in VI and highlight important open problems. VI is powerful, but it is not yet well understood. Our hope in writing this article is to catalyze statistical research on this class of algorithms. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

A key challenge for modern Bayesian statistics is how to perform scalable inference of posterior distributions. To address this challenge, variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. VB methods tend to be faster while achieving comparable predictive performance. However, there are few theoretical results around VB. In this article, we establish frequentist consistency and asymptotic normality of VB methods. Specifically, we connect VB methods to point estimates based on variational approximations, called frequentist variational approximations, and we use the connection to prove a variational Bernstein-von Mises theorem. The theorem leverages the theoretical characterizations of frequentist variational approximations to understand asymptotic properties of VB. In summary, we prove that (1) the VB posterior converges to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimizer of a normal distribution, centered at the truth and (2) the corresponding variational expectation of the parameter is consistent and asymptotically normal. As applications of the theorem, we derive asymptotic properties of VB posteriors in Bayesian mixture models, Bayesian generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian stochastic block models. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate these theoretical results. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial. However, complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that involve evaluation of the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a viable alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which uses a multivariate normal approximation of the distribution of a set of summary statistics. This article explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the SL, when the summary statistics have a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this article.

We consider alternate formulations of recently proposed hierarchical nearest neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) models for improved convergence, faster computing time, and more robust and reproducible Bayesian inference. Algorithms are defined that improve CPU memory management and exploit existing high-performance numerical linear algebra libraries. Computational and inferential benefits are assessed for alternate NNGP specifications using simulated datasets and remotely sensed light detection and ranging data collected over the U.S. Forest Service Tanana Inventory Unit (TIU) in a remote portion of Interior Alaska. The resulting data product is the first statistically robust map of forest canopy for the TIU. Supplemental materials for this article are available online.

The advent of miniaturized biologging devices has provided ecologists with unprecedented opportunities to record animal movement across scales, and led to the collection of ever‐increasing quantities of tracking data. In parallel, sophisticated tools have been developed to process, visualize and analyse tracking data; however, many of these tools have proliferated in isolation, making it challenging for users to select the most appropriate method for the question in hand. Indeed, within the r software alone, we listed 58 packages created to deal with tracking data or ‘tracking packages’. Here, we reviewed and described each tracking package based on a workflow centred around tracking data (i.e. spatio‐temporal locations (x, y, t)), broken down into three stages: pre‐processing, post‐processing and analysis, the latter consisting of data visualization, track description, path reconstruction, behavioural pattern identification, space use characterization, trajectory simulation and others. Supporting documentation is key to render a package accessible for users. Based on a user survey, we reviewed the quality of packages' documentation and identified 11 packages with good or excellent documentation. Links between packages were assessed through a network graph analysis. Although a large group of packages showed some degree of connectivity (either depending on functions or suggesting the use of another tracking package), one third of the packages worked in isolation, reflecting a fragmentation in the r movement‐ecology programming community. Finally, we provide recommendations for users when choosing packages, and for developers to maximize the usefulness of their contribution and strengthen the links within the programming community. The increased use of biologging devices has propelled the development of methods and software tools for analyzing tracking data. This work reviews 58 r packages for movement, acts as a road map for movement ecologists and offers recommendations for package developers from a user perspective.

Random forest and similar Machine Learning techniques are already used to generate spatial predictions, but spatial location of points (geography) is often ignored in the modeling process. Spatial auto-correlation, especially if still existent in the cross-validation residuals, indicates that the predictions are maybe biased, and this is suboptimal. This paper presents a random forest for spatial predictions framework (RFsp) where buffer distances from observation points are used as explanatory variables, thus incorporating geographical proximity effects into the prediction process. The RFsp framework is illustrated with examples that use textbook datasets and apply spatial and spatio-temporal prediction to numeric, binary, categorical, multivariate and spatiotemporal variables. Performance of the RFsp framework is compared with the state-of-the-art kriging techniques using fivefold cross-validation with refitting. The results show that RFsp can obtain equally accurate and unbiased predictions as different versions of kriging. Advantages of using RFsp over kriging are that it needs no rigid statistical assumptions about the distribution and stationarity of the target variable, it is more flexible towards incorporating, combining and extending covariates of different types, and it possibly yields more informative maps characterizing the prediction error. RFsp appears to be especially attractive for building multivariate spatial prediction models that can be used as “knowledge engines” in various geoscience fields. Some disadvantages of RFsp are the exponentially growing computational intensity with increase of calibration data and covariates and the high sensitivity of predictions to input data quality. The key to the success of the RFsp framework might be the training data quality—especially quality of spatial sampling (to minimize extrapolation problems and any type of bias in data), and quality of model validation (to ensure that accuracy is not effected by overfitting). For many data sets, especially those with lower number of points and covariates and close-to-linear relationships, model-based geostatistics can still lead to more accurate predictions than RFsp.

Stan is a free and open-source C++ program that performs Bayesian inference or optimization for arbitrary user-specified models and can be called from the command line, R, Python, Matlab, or Julia and has great promise for fitting large and complex statistical models in many areas of application. We discuss Stan from users 'and developers' perspectives and illustrate with a simple but nontrivial nonlinear regression example.

Variational Bayes (VB) is rapidly becoming a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. However, the existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes their use in many interesting situations such as in state--space models and in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), where application of VB methods was previously impossible. This article extends the scope of application of VB to cases where the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. The proposed VB method therefore makes it possible to carry out Bayesian inference in many statistical applications, including state--space models and ABC. The method is generic in the sense that it can be applied to almost all statistical models without requiring too much model-based derivation, which is a drawback of many existing VB algorithms. We also show how the proposed method can be used to obtain highly accurate VB approximations of marginal posterior distributions. Supplementary material for this article is available online.