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In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists' nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (< .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.

Activators of innate immunity may have the potential to combat a broad range of infectious agents. We report that treatment with bacterial flagellin prevented rotavirus (RV) infection in mice and cured chronically RV-infected mice. Protection was independent of adaptive immunity and interferon (IFN, type I and II) and required flagellin receptors Toll-like receptor 5 (TLR5) and NOD-like receptor C4 (NLRC4). Flagellin-induced activation of TLR5 on dendritic cells elicited production of the cytokine interleukin-22 (IL-22), which induced a protective gene expression program in intestinal epithelial cells. Flagellin also induced NLRC4-dependent production of IL-18 and immediate elimination of RV-infected cells. Administration of IL-22 and IL-18 to mice fully recapitulated the capacity of flagellin to prevent or eliminate RV infection and thus holds promise as a broad-spectrum antiviral agent.

Incubation is a strategy for initiating new funds, where multiple funds are started privately, and, at the end of an evaluation period, some are opened to the public. Consistent with incubation being used by fund families to increase performance and attract flows, funds in incubation outperform nonincubated funds by 3.5% risk-adjusted, and when they are opened to the public they attract higher flows. Postincubation, however, this outperformance disappears. This performance reversal imparts an upward bias to returns that is not removed by a fund size filter. Fund age and ticker creation date filters, however, eliminate the bias.

The view that the returns to educational investments are highest for early childhood interventions is widely held and stems primarily from several influential randomized trials-Abecedarian, Perry, and the Early Training Project-that point to super-normal returns to early interventions. This article presents a de novo analysis of these experiments, focusing on two core issues that have received limited attention in previous analyses: treatment effect heterogeneity by gender and overrejection of the null hypothesis due to multiple inference. To address the latter issue, a statistical framework that combines summary index tests with familywise error rate and false discovery rate corrections is implemented. The first technique reduces the number of tests conducted; the latter two techniques adjust the p values for multiple inference. The primary finding of the reanalysis is that girls garnered substantial short- and long-term benefits from the interventions, but there were no significant long-term benefits for boys. These conclusions, which have appeared ambiguous when using \"naive\" estimators that fail to adjust for multiple testing, contribute to a growing literature on the emerging female-male academic achievement gap. They also demonstrate that in complex studies where multiple questions are asked of the same data set, it can be important to declare the family of tests under consideration and to either consolidate measures or report adjusted and unadjusted p values.

As global warming continues to attract growing levels of attention, various stakeholders (states, general public, investors, and lobbyists) have put climate change on corporate agendas and expect firms to disclose relevant greenhouse gas (GHG) information. In this paper, we investigate the consistency of the GHG information voluntarily disclosed by French listed firms through two different communication channels: corporate reports (CR) and the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). More precisely, we contrast the amounts of GHG emissions reported and the methodological explanations provided (named 'traceability') in each channel. Consistent with a stakeholder theory perspective, we find that GHG amounts are significantly lower in the CR than in the CDP. We also find that firms increase the CR figures' traceability when there is a discrepancy between disclosures in the two channels. We suggest that the aim of this greater traceability is to enhance information credibility across the different channels used.

Principal-agent relationships are typically assumed to be motivated by efficiency gains from comparative advantage. However, principals may also delegate tasks to avoid taking direct responsibility for selfish or unethical behavior. We report three laboratory experiments in which principals repeatedly either decide how much money to share with a recipient or hire agents to make sharing decisions on their behalf. Across several experimental treatments, recipients receive significantly less, and in many cases close to nothing, when allocation decisions are made by agents. (JEL D82)

This article shows that the joint effect of tie strength and image-impairment concern on negative word-of-mouth (NWOM) transmission is different for males and females and argues that this effect occurs because of differences in their relative concern for self versus others. For males, there was not a significant interaction between image-impairment concern and tie strength on NWOM transmission likelihood. In contrast, for females the effect of image-impairment concern on NWOM transmission likelihood was stronger for weak ties than for strong ties. The robustness of the findings were tested in two additional studies by directly manipulating relative concern for self versus others and by employing an indirect proxy: interdependent and independent self-construal. Self- versus other-focused thoughts mediated the joint effect on NWOM transmission.

It is common to summarize statistical comparisons by declarations of statistical significance or nonsignificance. Here we discuss one problem with such declarations, namely that changes in statistical significance are often not themselves statistically significant. By this, we are not merely making the commonplace observation that any particular threshold is arbitrary-for example, only a small change is required to move an estimate from a 5.1% significance level to 4.9%, thus moving it into statistical significance. Rather, we are pointing out that even large changes in significance levels can correspond to small, nonsignificant changes in the underlying quantities. The error we describe is conceptually different from other oft-cited problems-that statistical significance is not the same as practical importance, that dichotomization into significant and nonsignificant results encourages the dismissal of observed differences in favor of the usually less interesting null hypothesis of no difference, and that any particular threshold for declaring significance is arbitrary. We are troubled by all of these concerns and do not intend to minimize their importance. Rather, our goal is to bring attention to this additional error of interpretation. We illustrate with a theoretical example and two applied examples. The ubiquity of this statistical error leads us to suggest that students and practitioners be made more aware that the difference between \"significant\" and \"not significant\" is not itself statistically significant.

The US tolerates more inequality than Europe and believes its economic mobility is greater than Europe's, though they had roughly equal rates of intergenerational occupational mobility in the late twentieth century. We extend this comparison into the nineteenth century using 10,000 nationally-representative British and US fathers and sons. The US was more mobile than Britain through 1900, so in the experience of those who created the US welfare state in the 1930s, the US had indeed been \"exceptional.\" The US mobility lead over Britain was erased by the 1950s, as US mobility fell from its nineteenth century levels.

Seemingly similar individuals often experience drastically different success trajectories, with some repeatedly failing and others consistently succeeding. One explanation is preexisting variability along unobserved fitness dimensions that is revealed gradually through differential achievement. Alternatively, positive feedback operating on arbitrary initial advantages may increasingly set apart winners from losers, producing runaway inequality. To identify social feedback in human reward systems, we conducted randomized experiments by intervening in live social environments across the domains of funding, status, endorsement, and reputation. In each system we consistently found that early success bestowed upon arbitrarily selected recipients produced significant improvements in subsequent rates of success compared with the control group of nonrecipients. However, success exhibited decreasing marginal returns, with larger initial advantages failing to produce much further differentiation. These findings suggest a lesser degree of vulnerability of reward systems to incidental or fabricated advantages and a more modest role for cumulative advantage in the explanation of social inequality than previously thought.