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Big Data as a Governance Mechanism
This study empirically investigates two effects of alternative data availability: stock price informativeness and its disciplining effect on managers’ actions. Recent computing advancements have enabled technology companies to collect real-time, granular indicators of fundamentals to sell to investment professionals. These data include consumer transactions and satellite images. The introduction of these data increases price informativeness through decreased information acquisition costs, particularly in firms in which sophisticated investors have higher incentives to uncover information. I document two effects on managers. First, managers reduce their opportunistic trading. Second, investment efficiency increases, consistent with price informativeness improving managers’ incentives to invest and divest efficiently.
Journal Article
The risk premium factor : a new model for understanding the volatile forces that drive stock prices
\"A radical, definitive explanation of the link between loss aversion theory, the equity risk premium and stock price, and how to profit from itThe Risk Premium Factor presents and proves a radical new theory that explains the stock market, offering a quantitative explanation for all the booms, busts, bubbles, and multiple expansions and contractions of the market we have experienced over the past half-century.Written by Stephen D. Hassett, President of Hassett Advisors, a specialist in value management, new venture strategy, development, and execution for high technology, web, and mobile businesses, the book convincingly demonstrates that the equity risk premium is proportional to long-term Treasury yields, establishing a connection to loss aversion theory. Explains stock prices from 1960 through the present including the 2008/09 \"market meltdown\" Shows how the S&P 500 has consistently reverted to values predicted by the model Solves the equity premium puzzle by showing that it is consistent with findings on loss aversion Demonstrates that three factors drive valuation and stock price: earnings, long term growth, and interest rates Understanding the stock market is simple. By grasping the simplicity, business leaders, corporate decision makers, private equity, venture capital, professional, and individual investors will fully understand the system under which they operate, and find themselves empowered to make better decisions managing their businesses and investment portfolios\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
The Media and the Diffusion of Information in Financial Markets: Evidence from Newspaper Strikes
The media are increasingly recognized as key players in financial markets. I investigate their causal impact on trading and price formation by examining national newspaper strikes in several countries. Trading volume falls 12% on strike days. The dispersion of stock returns and their intraday volatility are reduced by 7%, while aggregate returns are unaffected. Moreover, analysis of return predictability indicates that newspapers propagate news from the previous day. These findings demonstrate that the media contribute to the efficiency of the stock market by improving the dissemination of information among investors and its incorporation into stock prices.
Journal Article
How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis
Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19 shock and benefit less from policy responses. We find that firms with high financial flexibility within an industry experience a stock price drop that is 26%, or 9.7 percentage points, lower than those with low financial flexibility. This differential return persists as stock prices rebound. Firms more exposed to the COVID-19 shock benefit more from cash holdings. No evidence suggests that recent payouts worsened the average firm’s drop in stock price. Our results cannot be explained by a leverage effect.
Journal Article
Stock market volatility and learning
We show that consumption-based asset pricing models with time-separable preferences generate realistic amounts of stock price volatility if one allows for small deviations from rational expectations. Rational investors with subjective beliefs about price behavior optimally learn from past price observations. This imparts momentum and mean reversion into stock prices. The model quantitatively accounts for the volatility of returns, the volatility and persistence of the price-dividend ratio, and the predictability of long-horizon returns. It passes a formal statistical test for the overall fit of a set of moments provided one excludes the equity premium.
Journal Article
Subjective Cash Flow and Discount Rate Expectations
Why do stock prices vary? Using survey forecasts, we find that cash flow growth expectations explain most movements in the S&P 500 price-dividend and price-earnings ratios, accounting for at least 93% and 63% of their variation. These expectations comove strongly with price ratios, even when price ratios do not predict future cash flow growth. In comparison, return expectations have low volatility and small comovement with price ratios. Short-term, rather than long-term, expectations account for most price ratio variation. We propose an asset pricing model with beliefs about earnings growth reversal that accurately replicates these cash flow growth expectations and dynamics.
Journal Article