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The relationship between continental-scale cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the mid-latitudes and pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter (December–February) is investigated using ERA-Interim data for the 32 winters from 1979 to 2011. Pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation include “PULSE_TOT”, “PULSE_W1”, and “PULSE_W2” events, defined as a period of stronger meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by total flow, wavenumber-1, and wavenumber-2, respectively. Each type of PULSE event occurs on average 4–6 times per winter. A robust relationship is found between two dominant patterns of winter CAOs and PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. Cold temperature anomalies tend to occur over Eurasia with the other continent anomalously warm during the 2 weeks before the peak dates of PULSE_W1 events, while the opposite temperature anomaly pattern can be found after the peak dates; and during the 1–2 weeks centered on the peak dates of PULSE_W2 events, a higher probability of occurrence of CAOs is found over both continents. These relationships become more robust for PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events of larger peak intensity. PULSE_TOT events are classified into five types, which have a distinct coupling relationship with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The specific pattern of CAOs associated with each type of PULSE_TOT event is found to be a combination of the CAO patterns associated with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The percentage of PULSE_TOT events belonging to the types that are dominated by PULSE_W2 events increases with the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events. Accordingly, the related CAO pattern is close to that associated with PULSE_W1 for PULSE_TOT events with small-to-medium intensity, but tends to resemble that associated with PULSE_W2 events as the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events increases.

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August and mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first-ever-observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the midstratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-1 activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the southern annular mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Observational monitoring of the stratospheric transport circulation, the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), is crucial to estimate any decadal to long-term changes therein, a prerequisite to interpret trends in stratospheric composition and to constrain the consequential impacts on climate. The transport time along the BDC (i.e. the mean stratospheric age of air, AoA) can best be deduced from trace gas measurements of tracers which increase linearly with time and are chemically passive. The gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF.sub.6) is often used to deduce AoA because it has been increasing monotonically since the â¼1950s, and previously its chemical sinks in the mesosphere have been assumed to be negligible for AoA estimates. However, recent studies have shown that the chemical sinks of SF.sub.6 are stronger than assumed and become increasingly relevant with rising SF.sub.6 concentrations.

The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978–1980, and again in 1993–1995. During 1966–1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6 months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11–13 months or lagged by about 12–18 months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0–6 months during 1966–1974 to about 3–12 months during 1985–1992. During 1975–1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6–7 months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980–1994 in comparison with those in 1957–1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association.

The impact of snow cover in western and central China during late autumn on wintertime blocking occurrence is investigated using reanalysis data. The study results show that wintertime atmospheric circulations affected by late autumn snow cover anomalies form favorable conditions for increased blocking frequency (BF), especially in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Evidence is also presented that the stratosphere–troposphere interactions are the key mechanism of the lag response of wintertime North Pacific and North Atlantic BFs to the late autumn snow cover. That is, positive anomalous snow cover can induce a dipole anomaly in the geopotential height field over the lower stratosphere, due to the decrease of the 300–1000-hPa thickness and the concurrent variation between the East Asian plateau jet and the polar front jet. The associated positive geopotential height anomalies are located over northwestern Eurasia. Meanwhile, western and central China shows remarkably negative geopotential height anomalies. Also, the corresponding atmospheric circulation in the lower stratosphere increases the Eliassen–Palm flux that propagates into the stratosphere through the constructive interference between the forced and climatological waves. The upward wave activity fluxes collapse the polar vortex in the stratosphere, resulting in the downward propagation of the geopotential and wind anomalies from the stratosphere. Consequently, the decreased zonal wind speed in the upper layer of the blocking region forms conditions favorable for wintertime blocking.

The impact of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the atmospheric circulation is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Two 160-yr simulations are conducted: one with surface boundary conditions fixed at late twentieth-century values and the other with identical conditions except for Arctic sea ice, which is prescribed at late twenty-first-century values. Their difference isolates the impact of future Arctic sea ice loss upon the atmosphere. The tropospheric circulation response to the imposed ice loss resembles the negative phase of the northern annular mode, with the largest amplitude in winter, while the less well-known stratospheric response transitions from a slight weakening of the polar vortex in winter to a strengthening of the vortex in spring. The lack of a significant winter stratospheric circulation response is shown to be a consequence of largely cancelling effects from sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, which drive opposite-signed changes in upward wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Identical experiments conducted with Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, WACCM’s low-top counterpart, show a weaker tropospheric response and a different stratospheric response compared to WACCM. An additional WACCM experiment in which the imposed ice loss is limited to August–November reveals that autumn ice loss weakens the stratospheric polar vortex in January, followed by a small but significant tropospheric response in late winter and early spring that resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, with attendant surface climate impacts.

Trends in stratospheric trace gases like HCl, N.sub.2 O, O.sub.3, and NO.sub.y show a hemispheric asymmetry over the last 2Ãádecades, with trends having opposing signs in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Here we use N.sub.2 O, a long-lived tracer with a tropospheric source, as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the multiple linear regression model used to calculate stratospheric trace gas trends. This is done in an effort to isolate trends due to circulation changes from trends due to the chemical effects of ozone-depleting substances. Measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) are considered, along with model results from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Trends in HCl, O.sub.3, and NO.sub.y for 2004-2018 are examined. Using the N.sub.2 O regression proxy, we show that observed HCl increases in the Northern Hemisphere are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation. We also show that negative O.sub.3 trends above 30ÇëhPa in the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by a change in the circulation but that negative ozone trends at lower levels cannot. Trends in stratospheric NO.sub.y are found to be largely consistent with trends in N.sub.2 O.

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport results in the stratospheric intrusion (SI) of O.sub.3 into the free troposphere through the folding of the tropopause. However, the mechanism of SI that influences the atmospheric environment through the cross-layer transport of O.sub.3 from the stratosphere and free troposphere to the atmospheric boundary layer has not been elucidated thoroughly. In this study, an SI event over the North China Plain (NCP; 33-40° N, 114-121° E) during 19-20 May 2019 was chosen to investigate the mechanism of the cross-layer transport of stratospheric O.sub.3 and its impact on the near-surface O.sub.3 based on multi-source reanalysis, observation data, and air quality modeling. The results revealed a mechanism of stratospheric O.sub.3 intrusion into the atmospheric environment induced by an extratropical cyclone system. The SI with downward transport of stratospheric O.sub.3 to the near-surface layer was driven by the extratropical cyclone system, with vertical coupling of the upper westerly trough, the middle of the northeast cold vortex (NECV), and the lower extratropical cyclone, in the troposphere. The deep trough in the westerly jet aroused the tropopause folding, and the lower-stratospheric O.sub.3 penetrated the folded tropopause into the upper and middle troposphere; the westerly trough was cut off to form a typical cold vortex in the upper and middle troposphere. The compensating downdrafts of the NECV further pushed the downward transport of stratospheric O.sub.3 in the free troposphere; the NECV activated an extratropical cyclone in the lower troposphere; and the vertical cyclonic circulation governed the stratospheric O.sub.3 from the free troposphere across the boundary layer top, invading the near-surface atmosphere. In this SI event, the average contribution of stratospheric O.sub.3 to near-surface O.sub.3 was accounted for at 26.77 %. The proposed meteorological mechanism of the vertical transport of stratospheric O.sub.3 into the near-surface atmosphere, driven by an extratropical cyclone system, could improve the understanding of the influence of stratospheric O.sub.3 on the atmospheric environment, with implications for the coordinated control of atmospheric pollution.

It has been suggested that increased stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings following large, low latitude volcanic eruptions can lead to wintertime warming over Eurasia through dynamical stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We here investigate the proposed connection in the context of hypothetical future stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations. In those geoengineering simulations, we find that stratospheric circulation anomalies that resemble the positive phase of the Northern Annular Mode in winter are a distinguishing climate response which is absent when increasing greenhouse gases alone are prescribed. This stratospheric dynamical response projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, leading to associated side effects of this climate intervention strategy, such as continental Eurasian warming and precipitation changes. Seasonality is a key signature of the dynamically driven surface response. We find an opposite response of the North Atlantic Oscillation in summer, when no dynamical role of the stratosphere is expected. The robustness of the wintertime forced response stands in contrast to previously proposed volcanic responses.

In this study we examine the cross–seasonal effects of boreal winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical central Pacific (Niño 4 region) on Antarctic stratospheric circulation and ozone transport during the subsequent austral winter using ERA5 reanalysis of 45 years (1980–2024). Our analyses show that warm (cold) SST anomalies in the Niño 4 region during December–February are associated with mid- and high-latitude stratospheric warming (cooling), a contracted (expanded) stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), and enhanced (suppressed) polar ozone concentrations in the subsequent July–September period. This delayed response is mediated by the Pacific–South America (PSA) teleconnection pattern, which excites planetary waves that propagate upward into the stratosphere, thereby modifying the Brewer–Dobson circulation and enhancing ozone poleward transport, ultimately warming polar stratosphere. In addition, as the influence of the Niño 4 SST anomalies on the PSA teleconnection pattern diminishes during July–September, surface heat feedback at mid- and high-latitude becomes critically important for planetary waves. For example, persistent southeastern Pacific SST warming and sea–ice loss over the Amundsen and Ross Seas reinforce planetary waves by releasing heat from ocean into atmosphere. A multivariate regression statistical model using factors of boreal winter Niño 4 SST and June PSA indices explains approximately 32 % of the variance in austral winter stratospheric temperatures. These findings highlight a previously underexplored pathway through which tropical Pacific SST anomalies modulate Antarctic stratospheric dynamics on cross-seasonal timescales.