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Super volcanoes : what they reveal about earth and the worlds beyond
\"An exhilarating, time-traveling journey to the solar system's strangest and most awe-inspiring volcanoes. Volcanoes are capable of acts of pyrotechnical prowess verging on magic: they spout black magma more fluid than water, create shimmering cities of glass at the bottom of the ocean and frozen lakes of lava on the moon, and can even tip entire planets over. Despite their reputation for destruction, volcanoes are inseparable from the creation of our planet. Super Volcanoes revels in the incomparable power of volcanic eruptions past and present, Earth-bound and otherwise, and explores how these eruptions reveal secrets about the worlds to which they belong. Science journalist and volcanologist Robin George Andrews describes the stunning ways in which volcanoes can sculpt the sea, land, and sky, and even influence the machinery that makes or breaks the existence of life. Traveling from Hawaii, Tanzania, Yellowstone, and the ocean floor to the moon, Venus, and Mars, Andrews explores cutting-edge discoveries and lingering scientific mysteries surrounding these phenomenal forces of nature\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Monitoring super-volcanoes: geophysical and geochemical signals at Yellowstone and other large caldera systems
Earth's largest calderas form as the ground collapses during immense volcanic eruptions, when hundreds to thousands of cubic kilometres of magma are explosively withdrawn from the Earth's crust over a period of days to weeks. Continuing long after such great eruptions, the resulting calderas often exhibit pronounced unrest, with frequent earthquakes, alternating uplift and subsidence of the ground, and considerable heat and mass flux. Because many active and extinct calderas show evidence for repetition of large eruptions, such systems demand detailed scientific study and monitoring. Two calderas in North America, Yellowstone (Wyoming) and Long Valley (California), are in areas of youthful tectonic complexity. Scientists strive to understand the signals generated when tectonic, volcanic and hydrothermal (hot ground water) processes intersect. One obstacle to accurate forecasting of large volcanic events is humanity's lack of familiarity with the signals leading up to the largest class of volcanic eruptions. Accordingly, it may be difficult to recognize the difference between smaller and larger eruptions. To prepare ourselves and society, scientists must scrutinize a spectrum of volcanic signals and assess the many factors contributing to unrest and toward diverse modes of eruption.
Journal Article
Super volcanoes : what they reveal about earth and the worlds beyond
\"An exhilarating, time-traveling journey to the solar system's strangest and most awe-inspiring volcanoes. Volcanoes are capable of acts of pyrotechnical prowess verging on magic: they spout black magma more fluid than water, create shimmering cities of glass at the bottom of the ocean and frozen lakes of lava on the moon, and can even tip entire planets over. Despite their reputation for destruction, volcanoes are inseparable from the creation of our planet. Super Volcanoes revels in the incomparable power of volcanic eruptions past and present, Earth-bound and otherwise, and explores how these eruptions reveal secrets about the worlds to which they belong. Science journalist and volcanologist Robin George Andrews describes the stunning ways in which volcanoes can sculpt the sea, land, and sky, and even influence the machinery that makes or breaks the existence of life. Traveling from Hawaii, Tanzania, Yellowstone, and the ocean floor to the moon, Venus, and Mars, Andrews explores cutting-edge discoveries and lingering scientific mysteries surrounding these phenomenal forces of nature\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Chapter 3 - No Sun: Three Sunlight-Killing Scenarios
This Chapter summarizes the probability, severity, and intensity of three sunlight-killing disasters: (1) asteroid or comet impact, (2) a super volcano, or (3) nuclear winter and compares them with the worst disaster (abrupt climate change) from the last Chapter.
Book Chapter
Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption
We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super‐eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time‐dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250–300 km3 of ash over ∼3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine‐bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle‐Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe. Key Points A new methodology to calculate ash dispersal of a super‐eruption was presented Ash dispersal of the Campanian Ignimbrite super‐eruption was fully reconstructed The impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite ash fallout was quantified and discussed
Journal Article
Continuous Gravity Observations at Mt. Somma-Vesuvius with a gPhoneX Gravimeter: In-Depth Instrumental Response Characterization and Tidal Model
We report on the results of about 9 months of gravimetric recordings acquired at Mt. Somma-Vesuvius (SV) volcano (Southern Italy) with the new generation relative gravimeter gPhoneX#116 (gPh#116), which is a gravimeter specifically designed for continuous gravity recording. We also present the outcomes of an intercomparison experiment of the gPhone#116 conducted at the J9 gravity observatory in Strasbourg (France). In this intercomparison, we were able to check the scale factor of the meter with a high degree of precision by means of an intercomparison with 2 superconducting gravimeters (SGs) and a FG5-type absolute ballistic gravimeter. Multiple calibration approaches allowed us to validate the manufacturer's original calibration constants to a level of 1% accuracy and 0.1% precision. Moreover, we carried out a comparative study of the noise level of the gPh#116 with respect to the SGs and other spring meters routinely used in both prospecting and time-lapse gravimetry. It turns out that gPh#116 exhibits lower levels at hourly time-scales than other compared spring gravimeters (Graviton, gPhone#054, Scintrex-CG5). It was also possible to carry out a detailed study of the instrumental drift, a crucial topic for reliable monitoring of the long-term gravity variations in active volcanic areas. In fact, a challenge in time-lapse gravimetry is the proper separation of the instrumental variations from real gravity changes eventually attributable to recharge or drainage processes of magma or fluids in the feeding systems of active volcanoes. A negative finding coming out from the intercomparison is that, even when applying the tilt correction, the gravimetric residuals obtained with the gPh#116 are an order of magnitude larger and quite inconsistent with those obtained with co-located superconducting gravimeters. We guess this problem could be overcome by installing the gravimeter on an auto-levelling platform. From the analysis of the gravity records, a reliable tidal gravity model was derived, which we believe will help to improve the accuracy of volcano monitoring, as it will allow appropriate correction of tidal effects for both relative and absolute gravity measurements acquired in the area. Two further interesting elements arose from our study: (1) a peculiar cavity effect of the SV underground laboratory that seems to influence the tilt change; (2) the small residual gravity signals are time correlated with the rainfall peaks and are compatible with gravity decreases induced by increases in soil moisture above the gravimeter.
Journal Article
Study on the effect of magnesium on leaf metabolites, growth and quality of tea tree
Magnesium (Mg) is one of the essential elements for the growth of tea trees. In this study, we investigated changes in metabolites, photosynthetic fluorescence parameters and quality indexes of tea leaves under different concentrations of magnesium treatment, and the results showed that there were no significant differences in the quantity and total content of metabolites in tea leaves under different Mg concentrations. The results of volcano map analysis showed that the content of 235 metabolites in tea leaves showed an increasing trend and the content of 243 metabolites showed a decreasing trend with the increase of Mg concentration. The results of the combined analysis of the OPLS-DA model and bubble map showed that 45 characteristic metabolites were screened at different concentrations of Mg. Among these, the content of 24 characteristic metabolites showed an increasing trend and 21 characteristic metabolites showed a decreasing trend with the increase of Mg concentrations. The results of KEEG pathway enrichment showed that 24 characteristic metabolites with a upward trend were significantly enriched in saccharides metabolism, nucleic acid metabolism and vitamin metabolism, while the 21 characteristic metabolites with a downward trend were enriched in the synthesis of plant secondary metabolites, phenylpropanoid biosynthesis, biosynthesis of terpenoids, synthesis and metabolism of alkaloids, and synthesis and metabolism of amino acids. It can be inferred that Mg regulation was beneficial to enhance the photosynthetic capacity of tea trees, improve the accumulation and metabolism of carbohydrate substances in tea trees, and thus promoted the growth of tea trees, but was not conducive to the synthesis of secondary metabolites and amino acids related to tea quality. The results of photosynthetic fluorescence parameters and quality indexes of the tea tree confirmed the conclusion predicted by metabolomics. This study provided a reference for regulating of the growth and quality of tea trees with Mg fertilizer in tea plantations.
Journal Article
Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions
Extremely large volcanic eruptions have been linked to global climate change, biotic turnover, and, for the Younger Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption 74,000 years ago, near‐extinction of modern humans. One of the largest uncertainties of the climate effects involves evolution and growth of aerosol particles. A huge atmospheric concentration of sulfate causes higher collision rates, larger particle sizes, and rapid fall out, which in turn greatly affects radiative feedbacks. We address this key process by incorporating the effects of aerosol microphysical processes into an Earth System Model. The temperature response is shorter (9–10 years) and three times weaker (−3.5 K at maximum globally) than estimated before, although cooling could still have reached −12 K in some midlatitude continental regions after one year. The smaller response, plus its geographic patchiness, suggests that most biota may have escaped threshold extinction pressures from the eruption.
Journal Article
The Impact Crater Lake El’gygytgyn: Geomorphology and Quaternary Environmental History
AbstractThe Lake El’gygytgyn basin, located in central Chukotka, Russian Arctic is an outstanding feature in surrouding landscapes and landforms. Many pecularities make this lake important for investigations. It occupies the only meteoritic crater on Earth that was formed in mostly acidic volcanic rocks, linking it with impact craters on Mars. The crater was formed 3.6 million years ago and since then never became affected by any kind of glaciers, thus leading to continuous sedimentation in the lake. Recently, Lake El’gygytgyn was the subject of an international ICDP drilling project that resulted in the recovery of the longest continuous palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental record for the terrestrial Arctic covering the last 3.6 million years. The project included intensive geomorphological studies that helps, for example, to reconstruct Late Quaternary climate driven lake-level fluctuations.
Journal Article
Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis
The Aso-4 explosive eruption on Kyushu, Japan, 89,500 years ago was one of the biggest eruptions in the last one hundred millennia, with a magnitude of approximately M8. Modern society requires the likelihood of natural events with potentially disastrous consequences to be evaluated, even if probabilities of occurrence are diminishingly small. For some situations, it is not satisfactory to assert an event scenario probability is “negligible” or can be “ignored”. Judicial hearings or litigation may require risk levels to be quantified, in which case, statements of scientific confidence could be decisive. Internationally, e.g., for nuclear site safety evaluations, event likelihoods on order of 10
–7
/year are often considered for quantitative assessment. At such hazard levels, this might include evaluating the proposition that a particular volcano can deliver a future super-eruption, a supposition that could be attached to Aso volcano. But, simplistically taking the average recurrence interval between past caldera-forming eruptions at a given volcano is an unreliable guide to the likelihood of a future repeat: each past event represented a unique set of tectonic and magmatic conditions within a continually evolving volcanic system. Such processes are not temporally stationary nor statistically uniform. To evaluate the probability of a new M8 event at Aso, within the next 100 years, we performed a comprehensive stochastic probability uncertainty analysis using a model implemented with advanced computational Bayes Net (BN) software. Our eruption process model is informed by multiple strands of evidence from volcanology, petrology, geochemistry and geophysics, together with estimates of epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty, adduced from reviews of published data, modelling and from expert judgement elicitation. Several lines of evidence characterise the likely structure, magmatic composition and eruptive state of the present-day Aso volcano, which has had numerous smaller eruptions since Aso-4. To calculate the probability of another M8 eruption of Aso, we implemented probabilistic ‘Importance Sampling’ in our model. With this approach, we find the chance of an Aso-4 scale eruption (characterised by mean volume 500 km
3
DRE and approximate 90% credible interval [210 ‥ 1200] km
3
DRE) is less than 1–in–1 billion in the next 100 years (i.e., < 10
–9
probability). Based on current volcanological understanding and evidence, we believe this probability estimate is robust to within an order of magnitude.
Journal Article