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Short-term survival benefits of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) versus open repair of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms have been shown in randomised trials, but this early survival benefit is lost after a few years. We investigated whether EVAR had a long-term survival benefit compared with open repair. We used data from the EVAR randomised controlled trial (EVAR trial 1), which enrolled 1252 patients from 37 centres in the UK between Sept 1, 1999, and Aug 31, 2004. Patients had to be aged 60 years or older, have aneurysms of at least 5·5 cm in diameter, and deemed suitable and fit for either EVAR or open repair. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using computer-generated sequences of randomly permuted blocks stratified by centre to receive either EVAR (n=626) or open repair (n=626). Patients and treating clinicians were aware of group assignments, no masking was used. The primary analysis compared total and aneurysm-related deaths in groups until mid-2015 in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered at ISRCTN (ISRCTN55703451). We recruited 1252 patients between Sept 1, 1999, and Aug 31, 2004. 25 patients (four for mortality outcome) were lost to follow-up by June 30, 2015. Over a mean of 12·7 years (SD 1·5; maximum 15·8 years) of follow-up, we recorded 9·3 deaths per 100 person-years in the EVAR group and 8·9 deaths per 100 person-years in the open-repair group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·11, 95% CI 0·97–1·27, p=0·14). At 0–6 months after randomisation, patients in the EVAR group had a lower mortality (adjusted HR 0·61, 95% CI 0·37–1·02 for total mortality; and 0·47, 0·23–0·93 for aneurysm-related mortality, p=0·031), but beyond 8 years of follow-up open-repair had a significantly lower mortality (adjusted HR 1·25, 95% CI 1·00–1·56, p=0·048 for total mortality; and 5·82, 1·64–20·65, p=0·0064 for aneurysm-related mortality). The increased aneurysm-related mortality in the EVAR group after 8 years was mainly attributable to secondary aneurysm sac rupture (13 deaths [7%] in EVAR vs two [1%] in open repair), with increased cancer mortality also observed in the EVAR group. EVAR has an early survival benefit but an inferior late survival compared with open repair, which needs to be addressed by lifelong surveillance of EVAR and re-intervention if necessary. UK National Institute for Health Research, Camelia Botnar Arterial Research Foundation.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has now reached a pandemic state, affecting more than a million patients worldwide. Predictors of disease outcomes in these patients need to be urgently assessed to decrease morbidity and societal burden. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) has been associated with worse outcomes in patients with viral infections. In this pooled analysis of 9 published studies (n = 1532 COVID-19 patients), we evaluated the association between elevated LDH levels measured at earliest time point in hospitalization and disease outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Elevated LDH levels were associated with a ~6-fold increase in odds of developing severe disease and a ~16-fold increase in odds of mortality in patients with COVID-19. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Objective To compare breast cancer incidence and mortality up to 25 years in women aged 40-59 who did or did not undergo mammography screening.Design Follow-up of randomised screening trial by centre coordinators, the study’s central office, and linkage to cancer registries and vital statistics databases.Setting 15 screening centres in six Canadian provinces,1980-85 (Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia).Participants 89 835 women, aged 40-59, randomly assigned to mammography (five annual mammography screens) or control (no mammography).Interventions Women aged 40-49 in the mammography arm and all women aged 50-59 in both arms received annual physical breast examinations. Women aged 40-49 in the control arm received a single examination followed by usual care in the community.Main outcome measure Deaths from breast cancer.Results During the five year screening period, 666 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed in the mammography arm (n=44 925 participants) and 524 in the controls (n=44 910), and of these, 180 women in the mammography arm and 171 women in the control arm died of breast cancer during the 25 year follow-up period. The overall hazard ratio for death from breast cancer diagnosed during the screening period associated with mammography was 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.30). The findings for women aged 40-49 and 50-59 were almost identical. During the entire study period, 3250 women in the mammography arm and 3133 in the control arm had a diagnosis of breast cancer, and 500 and 505, respectively, died of breast cancer. Thus the cumulative mortality from breast cancer was similar between women in the mammography arm and in the control arm (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 1.12). After 15 years of follow-up a residual excess of 106 cancers was observed in the mammography arm, attributable to over-diagnosis.Conclusion Annual mammography in women aged 40-59 does not reduce mortality from breast cancer beyond that of physical examination or usual care when adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is freely available. Overall, 22% (106/484) of screen detected invasive breast cancers were over-diagnosed, representing one over-diagnosed breast cancer for every 424 women who received mammography screening in the trial.

Oral anticoagulation prevents ischemic strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Early detection of AF and subsequent initiation of oral anticoagulation help to prevent strokes in AF patients. Implanted cardiac pacemakers and defibrillators allow seamless detection of atrial high rate episodes (AHRE), but the best antithrombotic therapy in patients with AHRE is not known. Stroke risk is higher in pacemaker patients with AHRE than in those without, but the available data also show that stroke risk in patients with AHRE is lower than in patients with AF. Furthermore, only a minority of patients with AHRE will develop AF, many strokes occur without a temporal relation to AHRE, and AHRE can reflect other arrhythmias than AF or artifacts. An adequately powered controlled trial of oral anticoagulation in patients with AHRE is needed. The Non–vitamin K antagonist Oral anticoagulants in patients with Atrial High rate episodes (NOAH–AFNET 6 ) trial tests whether oral anticoagulation with edoxaban is superior to prevent the primary efficacy outcome of stroke or cardiovascular death compared with aspirin or no antithrombotic therapy based on evidence-based indications. The primary safety outcome will be major bleeding. NOAH–AFNET 6 will randomize 3,400 patients with AHRE, but without documented AF, aged ≥65 years with at least 1 other stroke risk factor, to oral anticoagulation therapy (edoxaban) or no anticoagulation. All patients will be followed until the end of this investigator-driven, prospective, parallel-group, randomized, event-driven, double-blind, multicenter phase IIIb trial. Patients will be censored when they develop AF and offered open-label anticoagulation. The sponsor is the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET). The trial is supported by the DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), the BMBF (German Ministry of Education and Research), and Daiichi Sankyo Europe. NOAH–AFNET 6 will provide robust information on the effect of oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial high rate episodes detected by implanted devices. [Display omitted]

In patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma who were ineligible for stem-cell transplantation, the addition of daratumumab to bortezomib, melphalan, and prednisone increased progression-free survival and the response rate at the cost of an increase in infections.

The role of low-dose thrombolysis in the reduction of pulmonary artery pressure in moderate pulmonary embolism (PE) has not been investigated. Because the lungs are very sensitive to thrombolysis, we postulated that effective and safe thrombolysis might be achieved by a lower dose of tissue plasminogen activator. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the role of this “safe dose” thrombolysis in the reduction of pulmonary artery pressure in moderate PE. During a 22-month period, 121 patients with moderate PE were randomized to receive a “safe dose” of tissue plasminogen activator plus anticoagulation (thrombolysis group [TG], n = 61 patients) or anticoagulation alone (control group [CG], n = 60). The primary end points consisted of pulmonary hypertension and the composite end point of pulmonary hypertension and recurrent PE at 28 months. Pulmonary hypertension and the composite end point developed in 9 of 58 patients (16%) in the TG and 32 of 56 patients (57%) in the CG (p <0.001) and 9 of 58 patients (16%) in the TG and 35 of 56 patients (63%) in the CG (p <0.001), respectively. The secondary end points were total mortality, the duration of hospital stay, bleeding at the index hospitalization, recurrent PE, and the combination of mortality and recurrent PE. The duration of hospitalization was 2.2 ± 0.5 days in the TG and 4.9 ± 0.8 days in the CG (p <0.001). The combination of death plus recurrent PE was 1 (1.6%) in TG and 6 (10%) in the CG (p = 0.0489). No bleeding occurred in any group, and despite a positive trend in favor of a “safe dose” thrombolysis, no significant difference was noted in the rate of individual outcomes of death and recurrent PE when assessed independently. In conclusion, the results from the present prospective randomized trial suggests that “safe dose” thrombolysis is safe and effective in the treatment of moderate PE, with a significant immediate reduction in the pulmonary artery pressure that was maintained at 28 months.

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is an effective treatment for severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) in patients who are inoperable or at high risk for surgery. However, the intermediate- to long-term mortality is high, emphasizing the importance of patient selection. We, therefore, sought to evaluate the prognostic value of frailty in older recipients of TAVR, hypothesizing that frail patients would experience a higher mortality rate and a higher likelihood of poor outcome 1 year after TAVR. This substudy of the Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valves trial was conducted at 3 high-enrolling sites where frailty was assessed systematically before TAVR. In total, 244 patients received TAVR at the participating sites. Frailty was assessed using a composite of 4 markers (serum albumin, dominant handgrip strength, gait speed, and Katz activity of daily living survey), which were combined into a frailty score. The cohort was dichotomized at median frailty score. Outcomes measures were the time to death from any cause for >1 year of follow-up and poor outcome at 1 year. Poor outcome was defined as (1) death, (2) Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall summary (KCCQ-OS) score <60, or (3) decrease of ≥10 points in the KCCQ-OS score from baseline to 1 year. At 1 year, the Kaplan-Meier–estimated all-cause mortality rate was 32.7% in the frail group and 15.9% in the nonfrail group (log-rank p = 0.004). At 1 year, poor outcome occurred in 50.0% of the frail group and 31.5% of the nonfrail group (p = 0.02). In conclusion, frailty was associated with increased mortality and a higher rate of poor outcome 1 year after TAVR.

Ertugliflozin is an inhibitor of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2), approved in the United States and European Union to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The VERTIS cardiovascular (CV) outcomes trial (NCT01986881) has a primary objective to demonstrate non-inferiority of ertugliflozin versus placebo on major adverse CV events: time to the first event of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary objectives are to demonstrate superiority of ertugliflozin versus placebo on time to: 1) the composite outcome of CV death or hospitalization for heart failure (HF); 2) CV death; and 3) the composite outcome of renal death, dialysis/transplant, or doubling of serum creatinine from baseline. Patients ≥40 years old with T2DM (HbA1c 7.0–10.5%) and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) of the coronary, cerebral, and/or peripheral arterial systems, were randomized 1:1:1 to once daily double-blind placebo, ertugliflozin 5 mg or 15 mg added to existing therapy. 8246 patients were randomized and 8238 received at least 1 dose of investigational product. Mean age was 64.4 years, 11.0% were ≥75 years old, and mean diabetes duration was 12.9 years with screening HbA1c of 8.3%. At entry, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease were present in 76.3%, 23.1%, and 18.8% of patients, respectively. HF was present in 23.1%, and Stage 3 kidney disease in 21.6% of patients. The results from the VERTIS-CV trial will define the CV and renal safety and efficacy of ertugliflozin in patients with T2DM and ASCVD.

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to compare the long-term outcomes of robot-assisted right colectomy (RAC) with those for conventional laparoscopy-assisted right surgery (LAC) for treating right-sided colon cancer.BackgroundThe enthusiasm for the robotic techniques has gained increasing interest in colorectal malignancies. However, the role of robotic surgery in the oncologic safety has not yet been defined.MethodsFrom September 2009 to July 2011, 71 patients with right-sided colonic cancer were randomized in the study. Adjuvant therapy and postoperative follow-up were similar in both groups. The primary and secondary endpoints of the study were hospital stay and survival, respectively. Data were analyzed by intention-to-treat principle.ResultsThe RAC and LAC groups did not differ significantly in terms of baseline clinical characteristics. Compared with the LAC group, RAC was associated with longer operation times (195 min vs. 129 min, P < 0.001) and higher cost ($12,235 vs. $10,319, P = 0.013). The median follow-up was 49.23 months (interquartile range 40.63–56.20). The combined 5-year disease-free rate for all tumor stages was 77.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.6–92.1%) in the RAC group and 83.6% (95% CI 72.1–0.97.0%) in the LAC group (P = 0.442). The combined 5-year overall survival rates for all stages were 91.1% (95% CI 78.8–100%) in the RAC group and 91.0% (95% CI 81.3–100%) in the LAC group (P = 0.678). Using multivariate analysis, RAC was not a predictor of recurrence.ConclusionsRAC appears to similar long-term survival as compared with LAC. However, we did not observe any clinical benefits of RAC which could translate to a decrease in expenditures.Trial registry: http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00470951.Graphical abstract

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5–24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates—a measure of relative inequality—increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7–87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8–83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.