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"System failures (Engineering) Case studies."
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AK-SYSi: an improved adaptive Kriging model for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes by a refined U learning function
Due to multiple implicit limit state functions needed to be surrogated, adaptive Kriging model for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes meets a big challenge in accuracy and efficiency. In order to improve the accuracy of adaptive Kriging meta-model in system reliability analysis, this paper mainly proposes an improved AK-SYS by using a refined
U
learning function. The improved AK-SYS updates the Kriging meta-model from the most easily identifiable failure mode among the multiple failure modes, and this strategy can avoid identifying the minimum mode or the maximum mode by the initial and the in-process Kriging meta-models and eliminate the corresponding inaccuracy propagating to the final result. By analyzing three case studies, the effectiveness and the accuracy of the proposed refined
U
learning function are verified.
Journal Article
Marine Propulsion System Failures—A Review
Failures of marine propulsion components or systems can lead to serious consequences for a vessel, cargo and the people onboard a ship. These consequences can be financial losses, delay in delivery time or a threat to safety of the people onboard. This is why it is necessary to learn about marine propulsion failures in order to prevent worst-case scenarios. This paper aims to provide a review of experimental, analytical and numerical methods used in the failure analysis of ship propulsion systems. In order to achieve that, the main causes and failure mechanisms are described and summarized. Commonly used experimental, numerical and analytical tools for failure analysis are given. Most indicative case studies of ship failures describe where the origin of failure lies in the ship propulsion failures (i.e., shaft lines, crankshaft, bearings, foundations). In order to learn from such failures, a holistic engineering approach is inevitable. This paper tries to give suggestions to improve existing design procedures with a goal of producing more reliable propulsion systems and taking care of operational conditions.
Journal Article
Can Blue-Green Infrastructure enhance resilience in urban drainage systems during failure conditions?
The need to enhance the resilience of urban drainage systems (UDSs) in view of emerging global climate change and urbanisation threats is well recognised. Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) provides a suitable strategy for building the resilience of existing UDSs. However, there are limited quantitative studies that provide evidence of their effectiveness for increased uptake in cities. In this research, coupled one-dimensional–two-dimensional (1D–2D) modelling is applied to assess the effectiveness of BGI that include rainwater harvesting systems, infiltration trenches, bioretention cells, and detention ponds using two case study UDSs located in Kampala that experience catastrophic pluvial flooding caused by extreme rainfall. The resulting flooding impacts are quantified considering ‘failed’ and ‘non-failed’ UDS initial states, using total flood volume and average flood duration as system performance indicators. The study results suggest that spatially distributed rainwater harvesting systems singularly lead to a reduction in total flood volume and average flood duration of 16–45% and 18–24% in the case study UDSs, respectively. Furthermore, the study results suggest that BGIs are more effective during moderate rainfall (T < 10 years). Based on the study findings, city scale implementation of multifunctional rainwater harvesting systems is recommended as a suitable strategy for enhancing UDSs’ resilience.
Journal Article
A review of the recent literature on rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence
The topic of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was thoroughly investigated, producing abundance of case studies at different scales of analysis and several technical and scientific advances. We reviewed the most recent papers published in scientific journals, highlighting significant advances and critical issues. We collected and grouped all the information on rainfall thresholds into four categories: publication details, geographical distribution and uses, dataset features, threshold definition. In each category, we selected descriptive information to characterize each one of the 115 rainfall threshold published in the last 9 years. The main improvements that stood out from the review are the definition of standard procedures for the identification of rainfall events and for the objective definition of the thresholds. Numerous advances were achieved in the cataloguing of landslides too, which can be defined as one of the most important variables, together with rainfall data, for drawing reliable thresholds. Another focal point of the reviewed articles was the increased definition of thresholds with different exceedance probabilities to be employed for the definition of warning levels in landslide early warning systems. Nevertheless, drawbacks and criticisms can be identified in most part of the recent literature on rainfall thresholds. The main issues concern the validation process, which is seldom carried out, and the very frequent lack of explanations for the rain gauge selection procedure. The paper may be used as a guide to find adequate literature on the most used or the most advanced approaches followed in every step of the procedure for defining reliable rainfall thresholds. Therefore, it constitutes a guideline for future studies and applications, in particular in early warning systems. The paper also aims at addressing the gaps that need to be filled to further enhance the quality of the research products in this field. The contribution of this manuscript could be seen not only as a review of the state of the art, but also an effective method to disseminate the best practices among scientists and stakeholders involved in landslide hazard management.
Journal Article
Comparison of the FMEA and STPA safety analysis methods–a case study
As our society becomes more and more dependent on IT systems, failures of these systems can harm more and more people and organizations. Diligently performing risk and hazard analysis helps to minimize the potential harm of IT system failures on the society and increases the probability of their undisturbed operation. Risk and hazard analysis is an important activity for the development and operation of critical software intensive systems, but the increased complexity and size puts additional requirements on the effectiveness of risk and hazard analysis methods. This paper presents a qualitative comparison of two hazard analysis methods, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and system theoretic process analysis (STPA), using case study research methodology. Both methods have been applied on the same forward collision avoidance system to compare the effectiveness of the methods and to investigate what are the main differences between them. Furthermore, this study also evaluates the analysis process of both methods by using a qualitative criteria derived from the technology acceptance model (TAM). The results of the FMEA analysis were compared to the results of the STPA analysis, which were presented in a previous study. Both analyses were conducted on the same forward collision avoidance system. The comparison shows that FMEA and STPA deliver similar analysis results.
Journal Article
Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic
Climate change, energy transition, population growth and other natural and anthropogenic impacts, combined with outdated (unfashionable) infrastructure, can force Dam and Reservoir Systems (DRS) operation outside of the design envelope (adverse operating conditions). Since there is no easy way to redesign or upgrade the existing DRSs to mitigate against all the potential failure situations, Digital Twins (DT) of DRSs are required to assess system’s performance under various what-if scenarios. The current state of practice in failure modelling is that failures (system’s not performing at the expected level or not at all) are randomly created and implemented in simulation models. That approach helps in identifying the riskiest parts (subsystems) of the DRS (risk-based approach), but does not consider hazards leading to failures, their occurrence probabilities or subsystem failure exposure. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper presents a more realistic failure scenario generator based on a causal approach. Here, the novel failure simulation approach utilizes fuzzy logic reasoning to create DRS failures based on hazard severity and subsystems’ reliability. Combined with the system dynamics (SD) model this general failure simulation tool is designed to be used with any DRS. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Pirot DRS case study in Serbia over a 10-year simulation period. Results show that even occasional hazards (as for more than 97% of the simulation there were no hazards), combined with outdated infrastructure can reduce DRS performance by 50%, which can help in identifying possible “hidden” failure risks and support system maintenance prioritization.
Journal Article
Risk analysis of health, safety and environment in chemical industry integrating linguistic FMEA, fuzzy inference system and fuzzy DEA
Organizations are continuously endeavoring to provide a healthy work environment without any incident, by Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE) management. As most of the activities and processes in the organizations have risk-taking nature, identification and evaluation of risks can be useful to decrease their negative effects on the system. Although Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) technique is used widely for risk assessment, the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) score has shortcomings like do not considering different weights and the inherent uncertainty of risk factors as well as do not regarding all viewpoints of the experts in decision making. The aim of this study is presenting a hybrid approach based on the Linguistic FMEA, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to calculate a novel score for covering some RPN shortcomings and the prioritization of HSE risks. First, after identifying potential risks and assigning values to the RPN determinant factors by linguistic FMEA team members due to the differentiation of these values, FIS is used to reach a consensus opinion about these factors. Then, the outputs of FIS are used by the fuzzy DEA and its supper efficiency model to risk prioritization which can contribute to full prioritization. In addition to considering uncertainty and decreasing dependence on the team’s opinions, in this phase weights of triple factors are calculated based on mathematical programming. To show the ability of the proposed approach in terms of HSE risks prioritization, it has been implemented in an active company in the chemical industry. After identifying risks having high priority based on the proposed score, preventive/corrective actions are presented in accordance with the case study, and for more analysis of results, the self-organizing map has been applied in this study.
Journal Article
A Novel and Effective Method for Congestive Heart Failure Detection and Quantification Using Dynamic Heart Rate Variability Measurement
Risk assessment of congestive heart failure (CHF) is essential for detection, especially helping patients make informed decisions about medications, devices, transplantation, and end-of-life care. The majority of studies have focused on disease detection between CHF patients and normal subjects using short-/long-term heart rate variability (HRV) measures but not much on quantification. We downloaded 116 nominal 24-hour RR interval records from the MIT/BIH database, including 72 normal people and 44 CHF patients. These records were analyzed under a 4-level risk assessment model: no risk (normal people, N), mild risk (patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I-II, P1), moderate risk (patients with NYHA III, P2), and severe risk (patients with NYHA III-IV, P3). A novel multistage classification approach is proposed for risk assessment and rating CHF using the non-equilibrium decision-tree-based support vector machine classifier. We propose dynamic indices of HRV to capture the dynamics of 5-minute short term HRV measurements for quantifying autonomic activity changes of CHF. We extracted 54 classical measures and 126 dynamic indices and selected from these using backward elimination to detect and quantify CHF patients. Experimental results show that the multistage risk assessment model can realize CHF detection and quantification analysis with total accuracy of 96.61%. The multistage model provides a powerful predictor between predicted and actual ratings, and it could serve as a clinically meaningful outcome providing an early assessment and a prognostic marker for CHF patients.
Journal Article
Ultra-short term HRV features as surrogates of short term HRV: a case study on mental stress detection in real life
Background
This paper suggests a method to assess the extent to which ultra-short Heart Rate Variability (HRV) features (less than 5 min) can be considered as valid surrogates of short HRV features (nominally 5 min). Short term HRV analysis has been widely investigated for mental stress assessment, whereas the validity of ultra-short HRV features remains unclear. Therefore, this study proposes a method to explore the extent to which HRV excerpts can be shortened without losing their ability to automatically detect mental stress.
Methods
ECGs were acquired from 42 healthy subjects during a university examination and resting condition. 23 features were extracted from HRV excerpts of different lengths (i.e., 30 s, 1 min, 2 min, 3 min, and 5 min). Significant differences between rest and stress phases were investigated using non-parametric statistical tests at different time-scales. Features extracted from each ultra-short length were compared with the standard short HRV features, assumed as the benchmark, via Spearman’s rank correlation analysis and Bland-Altman plots during rest and stress phases. Using data-driven machine learning approaches, a model aiming to detect mental stress was trained, validated and tested using short HRV features, and assessed on the ultra-short HRV features.
Results
Six out of 23 ultra-short HRV features (MeanNN, StdNN, MeanHR, StdHR, HF, and SD2) displayed consistency across all of the excerpt lengths (i.e., from 5 to 1 min) and 3 out of those 6 ultra-short HRV features (MeanNN, StdHR, and HF) achieved good performance (accuracy above 88%) when employed in a well-dimensioned automatic classifier.
Conclusion
This study concluded that 6 ultra-short HRV features are valid surrogates of short HRV features for mental stress investigation.
Journal Article