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"TERMS OF TRADE"
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ENGELS LAW IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: DEMAND-INDUCED PATTERNS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE, INNOVATION, AND TRADE
Endogenous demand composition across sectors due to income elasticity differences, or Engel's Law for brevity, affects (i) sectoral compositions in employment and in value-added, (ii) variations in innovation rates and in productivity change across sectors, (iii) intersectoral patterns of trade across countries, and (iv) product cycles from rich to poor countries. Using a two-country model of directed technical change with a continuum of sectors under nonhomothetic preferences, which is rich enough to capture all these effects as well as their interactions, this paper offers a unifying perspective on how economic growth and globalization affect the patterns of structural change, innovation, and trade across countries and across sectors in the presence of Engel's Law. Among the main messages is that globalization amplifies, instead of reducing, the power of endogenous domestic demand composition differences as a driver of structural change.
Journal Article
The Study on the Influence of Terms of Trade on Regional Inflation – Based on the Mixed NKPC Model Under the Opening Economy Condition
Based on the panel data from 1990 to 2018, this paper analyzes the regional difference in the impact of changes in price terms of trade and changes in income terms of trade on inflation by establishing the Hybrid NKPC model under the open economy. The empirical results show that the changes in price terms of trade and the changes in expected price have a significant negative and positive impact on the current inflation rate for each region. The changes in income terms of trade and the changes in expected income terms of trade have significant negative and positive effects on the inflation for each region. There is a significant difference in the degree of impact on the regional inflation and the degree of impact will further strengthen. Therefore, the change in terms of trade is an important determinant of the level and trend of domestic inflation in both the short term and long term.
Journal Article
Dominant Currency Paradigm
We propose a “dominant currency paradigm” with three key features: dominant currency pricing, pricing complementarities, and imported inputs in production. We test this paradigm using a new dataset of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs that covers 91 percent of world trade, as well as detailed firm-product-country data for Colombian exports and imports. In strong support of the paradigm we find that (i) noncommodities terms-of-trade are uncorrelated with exchange rates; (ii) the dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions, and this effect is increasing in the share of imports invoiced in dollars; (iii) US import volumes are significantly less sensitive to bilateral exchange rates, compared to other countries’ imports; (iv) a 1 percent US dollar appreciation against all other currencies predicts a 0.6 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. We characterize the transmission of, and spillovers from, monetary policy shocks in this environment.
Journal Article
Abstraction and Detail in Experimental Design
Political scientists designing experiments often face the question of how abstract or detailed their experimental stimuli should be. Typically, this question is framed in terms of trade-offs relating to experimental control and generalizability: the more context introduced into studies, the less control, and the more difficulty generalizing the results. Yet, we have reason to question this trade-off, and there is relatively little systematic evidence to rely on when calibrating the degree of abstraction in studies. We make two contributions. First, we provide a theoretical framework that identifies and considers the consequences of three dimensions of abstraction in experimental design: situational hypotheticality, actor identity, and contextual detail. Second, we replicate and extend three survey experiments, varying these levels of abstraction. We find no evidence that situational hypotheticality substantively changes results in any of our studies, but do find that increased contextual detail dampens treatment effects, and that the salience of actor identities moderates results in our endorsement experiment.
Journal Article
Africa's silk road : China and India's new economic frontier
New horizons are opening for Africa, with a growing number of Chinese andIndian businesses fostering its integration into advanced markets. However,significant imbalances will have to be addressed on both sides of the equation to support long-term growth.
eBook
Impact of Terms of Trade on GDP in the Context of Prebisch–Singer Theorem: Evidence from Egypt and Guinea
This study investigates the relationship between the Net Barter terms of trade and GDP of two African countries namely Egypt and Guinea along with seeking to validate the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. To analysis the effects, the study has taken the data ranging from 1990 to 2019. To examine the relationship between Net Barter Terms of Trade and GDP, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) have been employed. The findings of the study concludes that there exists a co-integration amid terms of trade and economic growth in the economy of Egypt, but Guinea remained out from the co-integration. The study also shows that there is a long-run and short-run relationship between the GDP and Terms of trade alone in Egypt with a comparative disadvantage in the terms of trade of a primary sector-oriented economy. Thus, the study partially validates the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis.
Journal Article
Factors affecting the small-scale fishermen welfare in Bontang, Indonesia
This study is designed to determine the welfare of small-scale fishermen with reference to traditional trap nets fisheries. In addition, it also identifies the factors that influence their welfare. The fishermen terms of trade (FTT) method and Tobit model were employed to obtain the desired objectives. The cross-sectional technique was applied to collect data from 100 small-scale fishermen. Results showed that the FTT index value was 1.61, indicating that most fishermen were sufficiently prosperous. Furthermore, education, experience, revenue, and cost variables were the significant determinants of small-scale fishermen welfare. The welfare of fishermen can be increased by providing necessary education and training facilitation, and incentive for enhancing fishing efforts.
Journal Article
Impact of agricultural supports on competitiveness of agricultural products
The agricultural sector is being supported in Turkey, as well as in the world. The issue of competitiveness is observed in agriculture, despite supports. This study aims at investigating the impact of agricultural supports in Turkey on competitiveness of agricultural products. Vector autoregression (VAR) model has been adopted in the study. The internal terms of trade (TOT), percentage producer support estimate (PSE), and the producer nominal protection coefficient (NPC) variables have been included in the model. The internal terms of trade in Turkey have developed over time against the benefit of agricultural sector. PSE has had a significant impact on TOT. Therefore, the use of PSE as a political variable has been concluded as a significant. Means of support must be discussed in Turkey more than the amount of supports. In particular, supports that will provide farmers with competitive advantage and boost up product farmyard prices will be more efficient and beneficial for farmers.
Journal Article
Analysis of Chinese economic growth under technology and consumer components of terms of trade: a time series study (1980–2021)
The existing literature widely explores the relationship between international trade and economic development. This research provides an innovative contribution by examining the impact of terms of trade (TOT), labor force, gross capital, stock trade, and investment on China’s economic growth from 1980 to 2022, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) long and short-run models. Furthermore, we divide terms of trade into consumer goods components (TOT food and TOT goods) and technological components (TOT computer & communication and TOT fuel). The outcomes of the Bound and Co-integration tests support the suitability of a long-run ARDL model, revealing a positive relationship between terms of trade and Chinese economic growth. Among the TOT components, TOT food and TOT goods promote Chinese economic growth, while TOT computer & communication and TOT fuel have an adverse effect. Additionally, investment, gross capital, stock trade, and labor force significantly boost China’s economic growth. However, the ECM (-1) outcomes indicate a 2098.48% adjustment from disequilibrium to equilibrium in transitioning from the short-run to the long-run. The study emphasizes the significance of export-oriented strategies, particularly technology, goods, and food exports, while addressing challenges like fuel dependency and global price volatility in fostering sustainable economic development.
Journal Article