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"TRADE BALANCE"
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The great rebalancing : trade, conflict, and the perilous road ahead for the world economy
China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations--a lost decade for China, the breaking of the Euro, and a receding of the U.S. dollar--that will have long-lasting effects. Pettis explains how China has maintained massive--but unsustainable--investment growth by artificially lowering the cost of capital. He discusses how Germany is endangering the Euro by favoring its own development at the expense of its neighbors. And he looks at how the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency burdens America's economy. Although various imbalances may seem unrelated, Pettis shows that all of them--including the U.S. consumption binge, surging debt in Europe, China's investment orgy, Japan's long stagnation, and the commodity boom in Latin America--are closely tied together, and that it will be impossible to resolve any issue without forcing a resolution for all. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
Little evidence that farmers should consider abundance or diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi when managing crops
Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are ubiquitous in agroecosystems and often stated to be critical for crop yield and agroecosystem sustainability. However, should farmers modify management to enhance the abundance and diversity of AMF? We address this question with a focus on field experiments that manipulated colonisation by indigenous AMF and report crop yield, or investigated community structure and diversity of AMF. We find that the literature presents an overly optimistic view of the importance of AMF in crop yield due, in part, to flawed methodology in field experiments. A small body of rigorous research only sometimes reports a positive impact of high colonisation on crop yield, even under phosphorus limitation. We suggest that studies vary due to the interaction of environment and genotype (crop and mycorrhizal fungal). We also find that the literature can be overly pessimistic about the impact of some common agricultural practices on mycorrhizal fungal communities and that interactions between AMF and soil microbes are complex and poorly understood. We provide a template for future field experiments and a list of research priorities, including phosphorus-efficient agroecosystems. However, we conclude that management of AMF by farmers will not be warranted until benefits are demonstrated at the field scale under prescribed agronomic management.
Journal Article
Rice in the Time of Sugar
How did Cuba's long-established sugar trade result in the development of an agriculture that benefited consumers abroad at the dire expense of Cubans at home? In this history of Cuba, Louis A. Perez proposes a new Cuban counterpoint: rice, a staple central to the island's cuisine, and sugar, which dominated an export economy 150 years in the making. In the dynamic between the two, dependency on food imports-a signal feature of the Cuban economy-was set in place.Cuban efforts to diversify the economy through expanded rice production were met with keen resistance by U.S. rice producers, who were as reliant on the Cuban market as sugar growers were on the U.S. market. U.S. growers prepared to retaliate by cutting the sugar quota in a struggle to control Cuban rice markets. Perez's chronicle culminates in the 1950s, a period of deepening revolutionary tensions on the island, as U.S. rice producers and their allies in Congress clashed with Cuban producers supported by the government of Fulgencio Batista. U.S. interests prevailed-a success, Perez argues, that contributed to undermining Batista's capacity to govern. Cuba's inability to develop self-sufficiency in rice production persists long after the triumph of the Cuban revolution. Cuba continues to import rice, but, in the face of the U.S. embargo, mainly from Asia. U.S. rice growers wait impatiently to recover the Cuban market.
eBook
The Bilateral USA-Mexico Trade Balances Under Decomposed Export Data
This study re-formulates and re-examines the traditional bilateral trade balance (TB) concept (ratio) in the USA-Mexico case using a different methodology. This re-examination is constructed on newly formulated decomposed-export-based TBs—namely, domestic-export-based TB and re-export-based TB. Since the undecomposed traditional total-export-based TB is expressed as a total export/import ratio, it may misrepresent the actual nature of bilateral trade of this country with Mexico because the USA also considerably re-exports to Mexico. The main empirical finding confirms the need for using decomposed-export-based TBs in trade models for the USA since the impacts of exchange rate and income on undecomposed and decomposed export-based TBs of the USA are entirely different. For example, while depreciation in the USD improves the re-export-based TB for only 13 commodities, the same change in the USD improves the domestic-export-based TB for 18. Some empirical inferences from findings are as follows: (i) Mexican consumers (MC) with a stronger Peso purchase US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones; (ii) MC with a weaker Peso stop purchasing US re-exported commodities more than the US domestically produced ones; (iii) MC are appreciated/depreciated-Peso-sensitive to US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones.
Journal Article
Rice in the time of sugar : the political economy of food in Cuba
\"In this history of Cuba, Louis A. Pâerez proposes a new Cuban counterpoint: rice, a staple central to the island's cuisine, and sugar, which dominated an export economy 150 years in the making. Pâerez shows how the logic of the sugar trade resulted in the development of an agriculture for consumers abroad at the expense of consumers at home. In the process, dependency on food imports, a signal feature of the Cuban economy, was set in place\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon
Since introduction of cointegration and error-correction modeling, the definition of the J-curve has changed to reflect short-run deterioration combined with long-run improvement of the trade balance due to currency depreciation. Standard methods such as ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) assume that adjustment of variables follow a linear path. It is now recognized that the adjustment process could be nonlinear. Application of Non-linear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2013) provides more evidence of the J-curve supporting non-linear adjustment of variables as well as asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance, using bilateral trade balance models of the U.S. with each of her six largest trading partners.
Journal Article
Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve
Purpose
– Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
– The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach.
Findings
– When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve.
Research limitations/implications
– The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research.
Originality/value
– This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.
Journal Article
The great rebalancing
China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations that will have long-lasting effects.
Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over,The Great Rebalancingsheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
eBook