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The photovoltaic (PV) industry experienced a drastic overcapacity, leading to heightened market competition in 2009. After the overcapacity, the EU and the USA initiated trade barriers targeting Chinese PV goods in 2011, stimulating China to seek alternative markets. In 2013, China announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although the BRI is a framework of international cooperation instead of a specific strategy that aims at PV industry, its role in helping Chinese PV firms deal with the trade sanction should be addressed. Based on the data from Chinese Custom Trade Statistics spanning 2009 to 2016, this paper precisely quantifies the extent of PV trade deflection from China to BRI markets that can be ascribed to the BRI effects. Employing spatial analysis, we manifest the trade deflection on maps. Moreover, we adopt the linear probability models and panel logit models to investigate the impact of BRI on China’s PV export expansion. The results show that BRI markets provide a buffer area for Chinese PV enterprises to alleviate their loss caused by trade sanctions. The BRI facilitated 4751 million more PV products conveyed from China to BRI markets from 2013 to 2016, occupying about 33.25% of the total export from China to BRI markets. Chinese PV firms prefer to explore the BRI markets than the rest of the world. Compared to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), non-SOEs are more active in entering BRI countries. However, no significant difference had been detected in BRI effects on SOEs and non-SOEs. It was noted that a robust local industrial basement related to the PV industry can potentially ease firms’ transition to BRI markets. Comparatively, firms situated in central China have benefited more from the BRI than their counterparts in the coastal and western regions. Furthermore, the BRI encourages Chinese PV enterprises to venture into countries with low economic complexity. This paper provides novel insights into BRI by validating BRI’s effects on Chinese PV firms’ export expansion. On the one hand, unlike previous BRI research that rarely considers the unstable external environment, we validate that the BRI can provide a spare market for China when it competes with developed countries. On the other hand, by investigating the roles of firms, regions and destinations, our results are enlightening for renewable energy industrial and trade policymakers.

This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs. The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China’s exports of tariffed products to the US (i.e., trade destruction effect), especially intermediate and labor-intensive products. On the other hand, they significantly increase China’s exports of tariffed products to the third market (i.e., trade deflection effect). For the $50 billion list, both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports, and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China’s exports of tariffed products to ASEAN, Japan and Australia. For the $200 billion list, the US additional tariffs boost China’s exports of chemicals, textiles, wood, metal products, furniture and other products to the EU, Australia, Japan, South Africa and Hong Kong, China. Furthermore, most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices, indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent. The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.

Since 2014, economic sanctions between Russia and Western nations have significantly altered the global seafood trade. The consequent decline in bilateral trade also had spillover effects on the rest of the world (ROW). According to earlier studies, economic sanctions appear to negatively impact bilateral trade and income. However, few studies examine how Russian sanctions affect the world as a whole and estimate their effects on the fisheries industry. This study seeks to close this gap by quantifying the extent to which Russian sanctions have impacted trade in terms of trade deflection, trade destruction, trade depression, and trade creation. To this end, panel data from 185 countries were created for the years from 2005 to 2020. With trade policy variables that account for changes in trade channels, a structural gravity trade model was specified. Based on calculations using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) fixed effect model, economic sanctions led to a 119.28% surge in Russia’s seafood imports from the rest of the world (ROW), alongside a 39% decline in imports from Western countries. The extent of trade deflection, which includes the exports of Western nations diverted from Russia to the ROW markets, increased by 5.49%. The results demonstrate that trade between sanctioned states, as well as global trade, is significantly impacted by economic sanctions.

AbstractIn response to international sanctions, Russia has restructured its hydrocarbon commerce through trade deflection, redirecting exports from sanctioning to non-sanctioning countries. The research aimed to analyze hydrocarbon trade deflection under the Russia–Ukraine conflict within the context of the China–Russia Strategic Partnership and BRICS, and to assess the restructuring of Russia’s crude oil and natural gas supply chains from 2020 to 2023. Two questions were addressed: Whether trade deflection shifted towards non-sanctioning countries, including China and other BRICS countries; whether Russia’s oil and gas supply chains were restructured towards these regions? Design incorporates the method developed by the author which generates and utilizes an integrated database of Bill of Lading and export data to analyze supply-chain trade restructuring, identifying specific shifts in trade flows by product, country, and enterprises. Findings reflected that after sanctions were imposed in early 2022, Russian hydrocarbon exports to sanctioning countries declined sharply, while exports to non-sanctioning countries, particularly China and India, increased significantly. Findings demonstrate the effectiveness of trade deflection as a strategic response to sanctions. This strategy has mitigated the adverse impacts on Russian oil and gas industry, with significant increases in exports to China and India. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China has helped secure a substantial market for Russian crude oil and increased China’s energy security. This study enhances understanding of trade deflection mechanisms and provides a framework for analyzing the interplay between international trade, geopolitical strategies, and economic resilience. Geopolitical alliances and trade partnerships have ensured ­resilience and continuity in global trade. This shift indicates strategic diversification towards Asian markets and increased Central Asian involvement. BRICS engagement has provided Russia with a platform to advocate for energy security and challenge Western dominance in global energy governance. Future research should explore other supply-chain components and analyze trade within the BRICS+ group and Russia–China bilateral trade.

The least developed countries rely on preferential market access. To benefit from these preferences, proof of sufficient transformation must be provided to customs in importing countries by meeting the rules of origin requirements. These rules of origin are complicated and burdensome to exporters in least developed countries. Since 2001, under the U.S. Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), 22 African countries that export apparel to the United States have been able to use fabric of any origin (single transformation) and still meet the criterion for preferential access (the so-called Special Rule). In contrast, the EU has continued to require yarn to be woven into fabric and then made into apparel in the same country (double transformation). Panel estimates for the 1996–2004 period exploit this quasi-experimental change in the design of preferences. Estimates show that this simplification contributed to an increase in export volume of approximately 168 percent for the top seven beneficiaries, or approximately four times as much as the 44 percent growth effect from the initial preferential access under the AGOA without single transformation. This change in design was also important for diversity in apparel exports because the number of export varieties grew more rapidly under the AGOA special regime.

Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. This paper provides a detailed quantitative analysis, based on standard econometric models, of the trends and the configurations of trade of the CIS countries, with an emphasis on its low-income members. It also contains an analysis of the CIS countries’ trade potential and its realization in a comparative perspective, as well as examination of the nature of the existing CIS intra-bloc trade. The study reveals no evidence that the CIS countries as a group under-perform significantly in terms of either trade openness or export levels when compared to the countries of similar per capita GDP and population size. However, the low-income economies in the CIS (CIS-7) have been performing on average just marginally better than other low-income countries and, overall, they have been falling behind the countries that benefit most from globalization. Overall, progress in the trade area was slower in the CIS-7 countries than in the higher income CIS members. This is reflected in: (i) lower overall export level and slower export growth; (ii) higher trade deficit; (iii) lower share of manufacturing exports; (iv) incomplete reorientation of trade flows; and (v) lower incidence of intra-industry trade. This report found that the CIS free trade area is, on balance, a beneficial, trade-facilitating bloc. There is no evidence so far that the CIS integration is of the “South-South” type (harmful for some of its members). However, the potential benefits of CIS trade integration remain badly underutilized. The paper suggests several directions for strengthening the legal and administrative framework for intra-CIS trade arrangements.

With preferential trade agreements on the rise worldwide rules of origin—which are necessary to prevent trade deflection—are attracting increasing attention. At the same time, preference erosion for Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) recipients is increasing resistance to further multilateral negotiations. Drawing on different approaches, this article shows that the current system of rules of origin that is used by the European Union and the United States in preferential trade agreements (including the GSP) and that is similar to systems used by other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries should be drastically simplified if developed economies really want to help developing economies integrate into the world trading system. In addition to diverting resources for administrative tasks, current rules of origin carry significant compliance costs. More fundamentally, it is becoming increasingly clear that they are often been designed to force developing economies to buy inefficient intermediate products from developed economies to \"pay for\" preferential access for the final product. The evidence also suggests that a significant share of the rents associated with market access (net of rules of origin compliance costs) is captured by developed economies. Finally, the restrictiveness of rules of origin is found to be beyond the levels that would be justified to prevent trade deflection, suggesting a capture by special interest groups. The article outlines some alternative paths to reforms.

Compared with most other primates, humans are characterized by a tight fit between the maternal birth canal and the fetal head, leading to a relatively high risk of neonatal and maternal mortality and morbidities. Obstetric selection is thought to favor a spacious birth canal, whereas the source for opposing selection is frequently assumed to relate to bipedal locomotion. Another, yet under-investigated, hypothesis is that a more expansive birth canal suspends the soft tissue of the pelvic floor across a larger area, which is disadvantageous for continence and support of the weight of the inner organs and fetus. To test this “pelvic floor hypothesis,” we generated a finite element model of the human female pelvic floor and varied its radial size and thickness while keeping all else constant. This allowed us to study the effect of pelvic geometry on pelvic floor deflection (i.e., the amount of bending from the original position) and tissue stresses and stretches. Deflection grew disproportionately fast with increasing radial size, and stresses and stretches also increased. By contrast, an increase in thickness increased pelvic floor stiffness (i.e., the resistance to deformation), which reduced deflection but was unable to fully compensate for the effect of increasing radial size. Moreover, larger thicknesses increase the intra-abdominal pressure necessary for childbirth. Our results support the pelvic floor hypothesis and evince functional trade-offs affecting not only the size of the birth canal but also the thickness and stiffness of the pelvic floor.

Polymer-based matrix hybrid composites meet their demand in various engineering applications and food industries due to their excellent mechanical, thermal, corrosion, and biodegradable performance. The polymer-based hybrid composites have been a better choice for high thermal insulation at low cost. This experiment attempted to find the thermal adsorption characteristics, heat deflection temperature, linear thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity of epoxy hybrid composites, which contained four different layers of Kevlar and basalt fiber fabricated via a low-cost conventional hand mold layup technique. This experiment revealed that the effect of basalt/Kevlar fiber on epoxy increased thermal performance. The results noted that the hybrid composite consists of less Kevlar fiber with the maximum basalt fiber of sample 4, showed excellent thermal adsorption effect on weight loss limited at 70.98%, and a better heat deflection temperature and11.78×10−6per °C linear thermal expansion were obtained. Sample 3 exhibited a maximum thermal conductivity of 0.251 W/mK. However, the thermal adsorption of hybrid composite has been limited by more basalt fiber, leading to a 1 wt%/°C decomposition rate.

The propagation of radio electric waves emitted from ground‐based meteorological instruments is determined through stratification of the atmosphere. In super‐refractive cases characterized by strong temperature inversions or strong vertical moisture gradients, the radar beam can be deflected towards the ground (trapping). This phenomenon often results in spurious returned echoes and misinterpretation of radar images such as erroneous precipitation, wind, and temperature detection. In this study, a 5‐year Central and West Africa (CWA) climatology of the frequency of super‐refractive and trapping‐layer base height has been produced using refractivity computations from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses at a 40‐km horizontal resolution and 60 levels in the vertical direction. The aim of this climatology is to improve the understanding on how frequent such anomalous propagations conditions are, which is a prerequisite for fully benefiting from radar data information for the multiple purposes of model validation, precipitation analysis, and data assimilation. First, the main climatological features are summarized for the whole CWA: Sahara and inlands seldom experience super‐refraction, whereas coastal areas are strongly affected, especially in regions where the temperature inversion and the trade winds are intense lying near the surface. Over land, seasonal averages of super‐refraction frequencies reach 80% (40%) over moist areas year‐round but remain below 40% (15%) in most other regions. Seasonal statistics exhibit a pronounced diurnal cycle of super‐refraction occurrences, with averaged frequencies peaking at 60% in summer late afternoon over the areas located on the Atlantic Ocean border but inlands region are less affected with super‐refractive cases by midday. Topographic map of Central and West Africa showing study area.