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A major floristic and climatic transition from aseasonal to seasonal evergreen tropical forest (the Kangar-Pattani Line; KPL) exists in the Indo-Sundaic region of Southeast Asia. Mechanisms constraining species distribution here are at present poorly understood, but it is hypothesized that species differ in their tolerances of abiotic factors, in particular water availability. Under this hypothesis, we anticipate differences in performance or habitat preferences, or both, of species differing in distribution with respect to the KPL. The aim of this study is to test whether geographical distributions can be used to explain variation in growth, mortality and habitat preferences in co-occurring tree species differing in their distribution in relation to the KPL. Pasoh Forest Reserve, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia; south of the KPL. All tree species within a 50-ha forest dynamics plot were classified as widespread or southern based upon their distributions in relation to the KPL and as habitat specialists or generalists based on spatial association with soil-based habitat categories. Growth and mortality rates, variation in growth and mortality with respect to soil type, and levels of habitat association were quantified for species with different geographical distributions. Differences existed in species performance based upon geographical distributions. Specifically, widespread species had lower growth rates than did species restricted to the aseasonal forests. Mortality rates did not differ as a function of geographical distribution. The growth responses of species to soil habitats also diverged, such that differences in performance of widespread species among soil types were more conservative than those of species restricted in their distribution to the aseasonal forests. However, the proportion of species showing positive habitat associations did not differ significantly between widespread and southern species. Distribution-based differences in species performance and response to soil type support the hypothesis that species tolerant of wider climatic variation perform less well in any given environment due to limitations on plasticity. These performance differences provide quantitative evidence of the role of climatic transitions in determining tree species distributions in relation to the Kangar-Pattani Line in the Indo-Malay region. Such differences in performance have important implications for our understanding of biodiversity gradients and responses of Indo-Sundaic forests to climate change.

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.

This paper examines the relation between air pollution and individual investors’ trading behavior and performance. Using unique data on stock trades by 87,504 individuals from 34 cities in China, we find a negative relation between air pollution and trade performance. This result is obtained after controlling for investor-year fixed effects and date fixed effects, as well as local weather conditions. More strikingly, abnormal trade performance decreases monotonically with the levels indicating the severity of air pollution. Furthermore, we find evidence suggesting that air pollution makes investors more susceptible to the disposition effect and attention-driven buying behavior. Overall, the results highlight a hitherto-unexplored cost that ambient air pollution imposes on stock market investors. This paper was accepted by Tylor Shumway, finance .

This study investigates the determinants of trade openness in Somalia by examining how the agricultural sector and key macroeconomic factors—including foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rates, and trade integration—jointly influence trade performance. Drawing on classical and modern trade theories, such as comparative advantage, export performance, and endogenous growth, the study employs annual data spanning 1990–2020 and applies an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to capture both short- and long-run dynamics. The stationarity of the series is assessed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and KPSS tests. The long-run results indicate that agricultural exports significantly enhance trade openness, highlighting the central role of the agricultural sector in promoting Somalia’s integration into international markets. In contrast, FDI inflows exhibit a negative long-term effect, suggesting that investments are often directed to non-trade-oriented sectors, limiting their contribution to trade performance. Short-run dynamics reveal that export growth and exchange-rate stability are crucial for trade performance, whereas exchange-rate volatility can impede trade flows. Comprehensive diagnostic tests confirm the model’s robustness and stability. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening agricultural export capacity, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and strategically allocating FDI to trade-enhancing sectors to improve Somalia’s participation in global markets.

New horizons are opening for Africa, with a growing number of Chinese andIndian businesses fostering its integration into advanced markets. However,significant imbalances will have to be addressed on both sides of the equation to support long-term growth.

The 2018 US-China trade war, caused global economic uncertainty and weakened international trade, especially impacting ASEAN member countries. Concurrently, the Japan-South Korea trade conflict, disrupted the global value chain. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of these trade wars on ASEAN through both quantitative and qualitative approaches. First, this study employs GLS regression to analyze the effect of trade wars on total trade performance among ASEAN-5 member countries. The results indicate that US-China trade war negatively impact ASEAN-5 trade performance, whereas increased Japan-South Korea trade conflicts are associated with higher total trade levels in ASEAN-5. Our results are further supported by focus group discussions with senior officials from the ASEAN Secretariat, who indicate that ASEAN-5 have less direct trade exposure to South Korea and Japan compared to the US and China, mitigating the immediate impact of the Japan-Korea trade conflict. These findings highlight the significance of geopolitical factors in shaping trade patterns.

This study examines the effectiveness of the East African Community (EAC) as a regional trade bloc by analyzing comprehensive trade data from 2009 to 2023. The research employs longitudinal analysis to assess trade patterns, infrastructure challenges and economic integration outcomes. Results reveal that Kenya dominates intra-regional exports, with trade volumes reaching $1.8 billion in 2022, primarily driven by exports to Uganda ($896 million) and Tanzania ($488 million). However, intra-EAC trade represents only 15-20% of member states' total trade volumes, compared to the European Union (EU)'s 60-70% internal trade ratio. The study identifies significant infrastructure gaps, with only 36% of regional roads paved and transportation costs averaging $0.17-$0.25 per ton-kilometer nearly triple the $0.06-$0.09 observed in developed regions. External trade analysis shows China's growing influence, with bilateral trade volumes increasing by 500-800% over the study period, reaching $8.2 billion with Kenya alone in 2022. The research also documents 100+ active non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and substantial power infrastructure deficiencies, with electricity access ranging from 75% in Kenya to below 40% in Burundi. These findings indicate that while the EAC has established foundational integration mechanisms, significant structural and policy reforms are needed to achieve deeper regional economic integration and more equitable distribution of trade benefits among member states. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the East African Community's (EAC) performance as a regional trade bloc from 2009 to 2023, offering critical insights into the real-world outcomes of African regional integration efforts. By analyzing trade data, infrastructure conditions, and policy frameworks, the research highlights the EAC's limited intra-regional trade 15-20% of total trade despite the implementation of customs and market protocols. The study reveals significant disparities among member states, with Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda dominating trade flows, while Rwanda and Burundi remain marginal. These findings are essential for policymakers, regional planners, and development agencies seeking to promote inclusive growth and deepen integration under initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The paper underscores the urgent need for targeted infrastructure investment, non-tariff barrier elimination, and institutional reforms to achieve a more balanced and competitive regional economy. The insights derived from this work directly inform efforts to enhance regional cooperation, reduce external trade dependency, and ensure equitable participation of smaller economies in regional value chains.

Nutmeg encounters challenges in productivity, quality, climate change, Covid-19 disruptions, and stagflation, requiring efforts to enhance competitiveness and meet global market demands. This study aims to analyze Indonesian nutmeg trade performance, assess competitive advantage, and formulate essential strategies to increase its competitiveness. Using comprehensive mixed quantitative and qualitative analysis, methods include export-import market share analysis, CAGR, import dependency ratio, import-to-export ratio, RCA, RSCA, RTA, and SWOT/QSPM analysis. The data obtained from in-depth interviews with key stakeholders was used for formulating strategies enhancing nutmeg’s competitiveness. The findings underscore Indonesia's significant dominance in the global nutmeg market, with a considerable 61.6% market share but its export growth rate for nutmeg was less than the import annual growth. The competitiveness indicators demonstrated a robust comparative advantage of Indonesian nutmeg trade in the global market, especially for products categorized as “nutmeg, neither crushed nor ground” and “nutmeg, crushed or ground”. Indonesian also has comparative advantage among other exporter countries. Crucial strategies of internal and external perspectives, such as expanding markets, improving nutmeg quality and productivity through improving farmer capacity, technological adoption, and good agricultural practices are necessary to take into account Indonesia’s nutmeg competitiveness in global markets.

Nutmeg encounters challenges in productivity, quality, climate change, Covid-19 disruptions, and stagflation, requiring efforts to enhance competitiveness and meet global market demands. This study aims to analyze Indonesian nutmeg trade performance, assess competitive advantage, and formulate essential strategies to increase its competitiveness. Using comprehensive mixed quantitative and qualitative analysis, methods include export-import market share analysis, CAGR, import dependency ratio, import-to-export ratio, RCA, RSCA, RTA, and SWOT/QSPM analysis. The data obtained from in-depth interviews with key stakeholders was used for formulating strategies enhancing nutmeg’s competitiveness. The findings underscore Indonesia's significant dominance in the global nutmeg market, with a considerable 61.6% market share but its export growth rate for nutmeg was less than the import annual growth. The competitiveness indicators demonstrated a robust comparative advantage of Indonesian nutmeg trade in the global market, especially for products categorized as “nutmeg, neither crushed nor ground” and “nutmeg, crushed or ground”. Indonesian also has comparative advantage among other exporter countries. Crucial strategies of internal and external perspectives, such as expanding markets, improving nutmeg quality and productivity through improving farmer capacity, technological adoption, and good agricultural practices are necessary to take into account Indonesia’s nutmeg competitiveness in global markets.