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"TRADE RELATIONSHIPS"
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The seed woman
In the last month of 1849, Hannah, pregnant by a traveling seed trader, arrives in a small village in the Swabian Mountains to find the father of her child. Helmut is due to be married to the town beauty in January and Hannah is determined to win his love for herself but the longer she stays, the more attached she becomes to both the town and to Helmut's fiancâee.
Book
Peeking beneath the hood of the leaf economics spectrum
This article is a commentary on Onoda et al., 214: 1447–1463.
Journal Article
Enhancing regional trade integration in Southeast Europe
Countries of the Southeast Europe (SEE) region have witnessed significant economic improvement since the beginning of their transition to market economies in the early 1990s. Growth has been particularly strong in the past six years, but still lower than in other fast growing countries in the East Asia and Baltic regions, or some of the other new member states of the European Union (EU). The purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to present recent trends in intra regional trade in SEE, in particular following the implementation of Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA); and (ii) to bring the attention of policy makers to some of the remaining impediments to enhanced intra regional trade. The rest of the study is organized as follows. Chapter two describes intraregional trade patterns, both prior and after the entry of CEFTA into force, including more detailed analysis of trade structure. Chapter three emphasizes the role of nontariff barriers (NTBs), such as technical regulations and standards, and their potential impact on trade enhancement, as well as the importance of the trade related environment drawing on global surveys and reports (doing business, Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS), logistics performance indicator, and the enabling trade index). It also looks at rules of origin and their role in trade creation. Chapter four aims to present the view of the private sector on CEFTA and on trade related reforms in general through two case studies of regional firms. Finally, chapter five concludes by summarizing the key recommendations of the study.
eBook
The Research on the Impact of Regional Trade Network Relationships on Value Chain Resilience in China’s Service Industry
Regional trade network relationships are not only a medium for transmitting shocks to value chains, but also an important vehicle for reconfiguring value chains. This article applies social network analysis, combines regional trade agreements, and describes the current status of regional trade network development in North America, the European Union, and “the Belt and Road,” as well as the individual characteristics of China’s service industry in each regional trade network by using the indicators of trade relations to construct the network density, connectedness, and centrality through clustering analysis. The research found that the complexity of regional trade network relationships has increased over the years. Additionally, the developing trend of equalization is accelerating but still exhibits a “Core-Periphery” structure. Additionally, subregional groups within the regional trade network are increasingly obvious. Further study on the impact of industry regional centrality on value chain resilience revealed that the increase of degree centrality and the betweenness centrality of China’s service industry can conspicuously strengthen value chain resilience in regional trade network relationships. Moreover, balanced regional trade network relationships can reinforce this effect. In contrast, the degree of the polarity of regional trade network relationships exacerbates the weakening motivation of centrality for value chain resilience.
Journal Article
The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
eBook
Respective Advantages of Growing Different Green Manure With Nitrogen Fertilization in Cotton‐Based Cropping Systems: Insights From a Three‐Year Field Study
Planting green manure to improve cash crop yield and soil health has been widely recognized, and understanding cash crop performance after green manure integration is pivotal for determining its potential to bolster and enhance crop productivity and sustainable production. However, it is unclear whether the effects of different types of green manure on subsequent cash crops are uniform. In order to clarify this issue, we systematically analyzed the effects of green manure types and nitrogen (N) application rates on succeeding cotton agronomic performance, yield, biomass, yield stability, and nutrient uptake. A split‐plot experiment with two factors was designed, main factor includes four cover cropping systems monoculture cotton (MC), February orchid/cotton cover cropping (FoC), hairy vetch/cotton cover cropping (HvC), and a mixture of February orchid and hairy vetch/cotton cover cropping (FHC), and sub‐main factor include four N application levels (0 (N0), 112.5 (N1), 168.75 (N2), and 225 (N3) kg N ha−1). Results suggests that nonlegume green manure (February orchid) accumulated more biomass, N, P, and K nutrients than the legume green manure (hairy vetch) and green manure mixture. Compared with cotton yield of MC, the FoC, HvC, and FHC system increased by 5.8%, 7.6%, and 15%, respectively. N use efficiency was more significantly influenced by the N application rates than by cropping systems. Specifically, as N application rates increased, N use efficiency decreased under MC, HvC, and FHC systems, while it increased under the FoC system. Additionally, we observed a trade‐off between cotton yield and yield stability, with the highest yield stability when cotton yield reached 2633 kg ha−1. This study provides evidence that nonlegume green manure (February orchid) with greater advantages on cotton vegetative organ growth, legume green manure (hairy vetch) can promote nutrient uptake compared to other green manure, while green manure mixture (February orchid and hairy vetch mixture) significantly increased cotton yield and yield stability. These findings provide evidence‐based insights highlighting the respective benefits of incorporating diverse species of green manure into cotton‐based cropping systems in the Yellow River Basin of China.
Journal Article
Research on the Competitiveness and Complementarity of Agricultural Trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Agricultural trade is the foundation of world trade and an important link in economic and trade relations between countries or regions. Exploring the competitiveness and complementarity of the agricultural trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, could provide a theoretical basis for tapping the growth potential of the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN and expanding the trade relationship. According to the theory of comparative advantage, trade complementarity theory, and intra-industry trade theory, and based on UN Comtrade data from 2013 to 2022, this study uses the Regional Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, the Trade Complementarity Index, and the Intra-Industry Trade Index to measure the competitiveness, complementarity, and intra-industry trade level of China–ASEAN agricultural trade, including HS01-24 commodities. The results show that the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN is both competitive and complementary. The competitiveness of China’s agricultural exports to ASEAN is greater than that of ASEAN’s agricultural exports to China, and the complementarity of the former is less than that of the latter. Both sides have their own comparative advantage products, and there is also a strong competitive relationship in some agricultural product fields. The bilateral agricultural trade is mainly intra-industry trade, and the level is relatively high, while some strongly competitive agricultural products urgently need to transform from inter-industry to intra-industry trade. China and ASEAN should participate in bilateral trade based on the comparative advantages of their own agricultural products; ASEAN should improve the quality of agricultural products to enhance international competitiveness; China should tap into the market demand for ASEAN agricultural products to enhance the complementarity of its agricultural exports to ASEAN; and the two sides should formulate different policies for different types of agricultural products.
Journal Article
The Extensive Margin of International Trade in a Transition Economy: The Case of Mongolia
Using the Kehoe and Ruhl (J Polit Econ 121(2):358–392, 2013) methodology, we investigate whether the variety of traded goods, which is the extensive margin of trade, has actually changed in a transition economy, such as Mongolia, as predicted by recent theoretical models. Answering this question would be interesting especially for the transition economies that still have an observer status in the World Trade Organization (WTO). We find large increases in the extensive margin of Mongolia’s trade with 10 major trade partners from 1997 to 2002, when Mongolia was undergoing significant structural reforms. We also find further increases in the extensive margin for Mongolia–China and Mongolia–the main EU trade partners after trade liberalizations due to China’s accession to the WTO (2001) and Mongolia’s eligibility for the EU Generalized Systems of Preferences (GSP+) scheme (2005). We, however, find no or relatively small further increases in the extensive margin for the Mongolia–Russia pair during the period 2002–2007, when there was no major change in the trade regime of these two countries. Our robustness checks indicate that methodologies other than that of Kehoe and Ruhl’s overstate the extensive margin growth in Mongolia with small trade relationships.
Journal Article
Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
eBook
One Money, One Market - A Revised Benchmark
The introduction of the euro generated substantial interest in measuring the impact of currency unions (CUs) on trade flows. Rose's (2000) initial estimates suggested a tripling of trade and created a literature in search of \"more reasonable\" CU effects. A recent meta-analysis of this literature shows that subsequent papers quantify CU trade impacts at 30-90 percent. However, most recent studies use shorter time series and fewer countries than Rose in his original work. We revisit Rose's original benchmark, extend the dataset, and address Baldwin's (2006) critiques regarding the proper specification of gravity models in large panels by simultaneously accounting for multilateral resistance and unobserved bilateral heterogeneity. This produces a robust average CU trade effect of 45 percent. Yet, the trade impacts of individual CUs vary substantially and are generally lower than those of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Our revised benchmark can be used as a yardstick for future studies to delineate how estimates differ due to new data or differences in econometric specifications.
eBook