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Endogenous demand composition across sectors due to income elasticity differences, or Engel's Law for brevity, affects (i) sectoral compositions in employment and in value-added, (ii) variations in innovation rates and in productivity change across sectors, (iii) intersectoral patterns of trade across countries, and (iv) product cycles from rich to poor countries. Using a two-country model of directed technical change with a continuum of sectors under nonhomothetic preferences, which is rich enough to capture all these effects as well as their interactions, this paper offers a unifying perspective on how economic growth and globalization affect the patterns of structural change, innovation, and trade across countries and across sectors in the presence of Engel's Law. Among the main messages is that globalization amplifies, instead of reducing, the power of endogenous domestic demand composition differences as a driver of structural change.

Based on the panel data from 1990 to 2018, this paper analyzes the regional difference in the impact of changes in price terms of trade and changes in income terms of trade on inflation by establishing the Hybrid NKPC model under the open economy. The empirical results show that the changes in price terms of trade and the changes in expected price have a significant negative and positive impact on the current inflation rate for each region. The changes in income terms of trade and the changes in expected income terms of trade have significant negative and positive effects on the inflation for each region. There is a significant difference in the degree of impact on the regional inflation and the degree of impact will further strengthen. Therefore, the change in terms of trade is an important determinant of the level and trend of domestic inflation in both the short term and long term.

The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability Norman V. Loayza and Claudio Raddatz This article examines empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact of terms of trade shocks on aggregate output. Applying semistructural vector autoregressions to a panel of 88 countries with annual observations for the period 1974 2000, the analysis isolates and standardizes the shocks, estimates their impact on GDP, and examines how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. This article takes a different approach and directly estimates the output impact of external shocks using semistructural vector autoregression analysis, as applied to panel data (cross-country, time-series) of aggregate variables. Controlling for the size of the shock, the analysis accounts for its interaction with the set of country characteristics under analysis and estimates its conditional output impact. The Chinn Ito index corresponds to the first principal components of the following four binary variables reported in the International Monetary Fund's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (various issues): existence of multiple exchange rates, restrictions on current account, capital account transactions, and the existence of requirements to surrender export proceedings. Robustness This section examines the robustness of the basic results to changes in measurement of the terms of trade shock, in the sample of countries, the application of a longer lag structure in the estimated vector autoregressions, the inclusion of the exchange rate regime as a country characteristic, and implementation of an alternative method of estimating the effects of structural characteristics. This result is only tentative, however, as a complete analysis of the role of the exchange rate regime requires treatment of measurement issues that is outside the scope of this article. In contrast to the basic case, the interactions model indicates a relevant though nuanced role for financial depth in affecting the impact of external shocks: deepening domestic financial markets can reduce the impact of external shocks when international trade and financial markets are open. These results are robust to checking for mechanical interpretations of the trade-related results, placing stricter restrictions to guarantee shock exogeneity, concentrating exclusively on developing countries, using a longer lag structure for the vector autoregressions, controlling in addition for the exchange rate regime and allowing full heterogeneity in the estimation of country impulse responses. Similarly, the findings indicate that greater financial openness in an environment of underdeveloped local financial markets may result in an increase in the impact of external shocks.

New horizons are opening for Africa, with a growing number of Chinese andIndian businesses fostering its integration into advanced markets. However,significant imbalances will have to be addressed on both sides of the equation to support long-term growth.

This paper explores the role of trade instruments in globally efficient climate policies, focusing on the central issue of whether some form of border tax adjustment (BTA) is warranted when carbon prices differ internationally. It shows that tariff policy has a role in easing cross-country distributional concerns that can make non-uniform carbon pricing efficient and, more particularly, that Pareto-efficiency requires a form of BTA when carbon taxes in some countries are constrained, a special case being identified in which this has the simple structure envisaged in practical policy discusions. It also stresses-a point that has been overlooked in the policy debate-that the efficiency case for BTA depends critically on whether climate policies are pursued by carbon taxation or by cap-and-trade.

This study investigates the relationship between the Net Barter terms of trade and GDP of two African countries namely Egypt and Guinea along with seeking to validate the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. To analysis the effects, the study has taken the data ranging from 1990 to 2019. To examine the relationship between Net Barter Terms of Trade and GDP, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) have been employed. The findings of the study concludes that there exists a co-integration amid terms of trade and economic growth in the economy of Egypt, but Guinea remained out from the co-integration. The study also shows that there is a long-run and short-run relationship between the GDP and Terms of trade alone in Egypt with a comparative disadvantage in the terms of trade of a primary sector-oriented economy. Thus, the study partially validates the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis.

This paper presents a version of the global integrated monetary fiscal (GIMF) model adapted and calibrated to the Argentine economy. The model replicates the effect of the strong improvement in Argentina's terms of trade stemming from higher world commodity prices as well as other key economic trends in Argentina during the period 2003-2007. The model can be used to assess the potential impact of different combinations of monetary and fiscal policies on output, inflation, and the external trade.