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Designing Optimal, Data-Driven Policies from Multisite Randomized Trials
Optimal treatment regimes (OTRs) have been widely employed in computer science and personalized medicine to provide data-driven, optimal recommendations to individuals. However, previous research on OTRs has primarily focused on settings that are independent and identically distributed, with little attention given to the unique characteristics of educational settings, where students are nested within schools and there are hierarchical dependencies. The goal of this study is to propose a framework for designing OTRs from multisite randomized trials, a commonly used experimental design in education and psychology to evaluate educational programs. We investigate modifications to popular OTR methods, specifically Q-learning and weighting methods, in order to improve their performance in multisite randomized trials. A total of 12 modifications, 6 for Q-learning and 6 for weighting, are proposed by utilizing different multilevel models, moderators, and augmentations. Simulation studies reveal that all Q-learning modifications improve performance in multisite randomized trials and the modifications that incorporate random treatment effects show the most promise in handling cluster-level moderators. Among weighting methods, the modification that incorporates cluster dummies into moderator variables and augmentation terms performs best across simulation conditions. The proposed modifications are demonstrated through an application to estimate an OTR of conditional cash transfer programs using a multisite randomized trial in Colombia to maximize educational attainment.
Journal Article
A Universal Child Allowance: A Plan to Reduce Poverty and Income Instability among Children in the United States
To reduce child poverty and income instability, and eliminate extreme poverty among families with children in the United States, we propose converting the Child Tax Credit and child tax exemption into a universal, monthly child allowance. Our proposal is based on principles we argue should undergird the design of such policies: universality, accessibility, adequate payment levels, and more generous support for young children. Whether benefits should decline with additional children to reflect economies of scale is a question policymakers should consider. Analyzing 2015 Current Population Survey data, we estimate our proposed child allowance would reduce child poverty by about 40 percent, deep child poverty by nearly half, and would effectively eliminate extreme child poverty. Annual net cost estimates range from $66 billion to $105 billion.
Journal Article
Multidimensional Targeting: Identifying Beneficiaries of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) have two main objectives: reducing poverty and increasing the human capital of children. To reach these objectives, transfers are given to poor households conditioned on investments in their children's education, health, and nutrition. Targeting mechanisms used by CCTs have been generally successful in identifying the income poor but have not fared as well in identifying households that under-invest in human capital. These mechanisms do not consider the multidimensional aspect of poverty, even when composite measures are used, as they do not capture each dimension-specific deprivation. This paper proposes a multidimensional targeting approach to identifying beneficiaries that explicitly takes into consideration the multiple objectives of CCTs and the multiple deprivations of the poor household. Results indicate that the proposed multidimensional targeting methodology significantly improves the selection of households with children who are most deprived in the dimensions often relevant to CCTs. In the case of Mexico's Oportunidades, ex-ante evaluation results indicate that the multidimensional identification of beneficiaries increases the impact of transfers on school attendance compared to alternative targeting models.
Journal Article
The Contribution of Increased Equity to the Estimated Social Benefits from a Transfer Program
Most impact evaluations of Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) and Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCTs) focus on the returns to increased human capital investments that will be reaped largely or exclusively in the future (e.g., when current children have increased productivities as adults). But the objectives of these programs are not only to increase human capital investments with implications for future levels and distributions of income but also to alleviate current poverty and reduce current inequality. The current distributional gains from such programs depend on the degree of inequality aversion in the social welfare function. Simulations show that, for a range of inequality aversion parameters, the welfare gains from current redistribution for the Mexican PROGRESA CCT program can be as large, or possibly much larger, than the estimated present discounted value of future earnings from human capital investments in lower and upper secondary schooling. These, moreover, are underestimates of the gains from redistribution because, in addition to current gains, such gains will be augmented in the future through the distribution of the returns on the human capital investments induced by cash transfer programs. Therefore, to fully evaluate such programs, it is critical to incorporate the distributional gains, not only the impacts on human capital investments.
Journal Article
Cash or condition?
This article assesses the role of conditionality in cash transfer programs using a unique experiment targeted at adolescent girls in Malawi. The program featured two distinct interventions: unconditional transfers (UCT arm) and transfers conditional on school attendance (CCT arm). Although there was a modest decline in the dropout rate in the UCT arm in comparison with the control group, it was only 43% as large as the impact in the CCT arm at the end of the 2-year program. The CCT arm also outperformed the UCT arm in tests of English reading comprehension. However, teenage pregnancy and marriage rates were substantially lower in the UCT than the CCT arm, entirely due to the impact of UCTs on these outcomes among girls who dropped out of school.
Journal Article
Achieving effective social protection for all in Latin America and the Caribbean : from right to reality
Slow progress in improving the coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean's (LAC's) traditional social protection (SP) programs, combined with the deepening of democracy, have led to calls for a new social contract to provide effective social protection to all citizens. This book highlights the main findings of a regional study by the World Bank, from right to reality: how Latin America and the Caribbean can achieve universal social protection by improving redistribution and adapting programs to labor markets. The report analyzes LAC's social insurance (SI) systems and highlights growing concerns about the incentives they may create and the behaviors they may incite on the part of workers, employers and service providers. It offers an economic analysis of the roots of these problems and suggests a way forward to achieve universal coverage in an equitable manner. The report argues that a coherent overall vision for the SP system should be established if such problems are to be understood and resolved. The goal is to turn the theoretical right to social protection, which is enshrined in many of the region's constitutions and laws, into a reality for all of LAC's population. A central message of the report is that SP systems need to respond to the realities of LAC's labor markets, especially the prevalence of informality and frequent changes of employment.
eBook
Rethinking school feeding
This review was prepared jointly by the World Bank Group and the World Food Programme (WFP), building on the comparative advantages of both organizations. It examines the evidence base for school feeding programs with the objective of better understanding how to develop and implement effective school feeding programs in two contexts: a productive safety net, as part of the response to the social shocks of the global food, fuel and financial crises, and a fiscally sustainable investment in human capital, as part of long-term global efforts to achieve Education for All and provide social protection to the poor.
eBook
Cash transfer programs: a review of comparative evidence using textometry
Abstract This study analyzes the discourse and communication strategies of cash transfer programs in Brazil, Mexico, India, and South Africa, using lexicometric analysis to identify structural differences and policy objectives. First, we provide a brief historical review of each program and present comparative tables highlighting their specific features. Then, we conduct a text mining analysis using the free software Iramuteq, which facilitates lexicometric exploration. This approach allows us to uncover patterns in the formulation and communication of these policies, revealing how each program frames its goals and target populations. Despite sharing a common political nature, the programs exhibit significant differences in design, implementation, and expected outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of policymakers carefully considering the discourse surrounding these programs, as it influences public perception and policy effectiveness. Ultimately, this research offers a novel methodological approach to studying cash transfer programs and contributes to a deeper understanding of their structure, communication, and impact. Resumo Este estudo analisa o discurso e as estratégias de comunicação dos programas de transferência de renda no Brasil, México, Índia e África do Sul, usando análise lexicométrica para identificar diferenças estruturais e objetivos de políticas. Primeiro, fornecemos uma breve revisão histórica de cada programa e apresentamos tabelas comparativas destacando suas características específicas. Em seguida, conduzimos uma análise de mineração de texto usando o software livre Iramuteq, que facilita a exploração lexicométrica. Essa abordagem nos permite descobrir padrões na formulação e comunicação dessas políticas, revelando como cada programa enquadra seus objetivos e populações-alvo. Apesar de compartilhar uma natureza política comum, os programas exibem diferenças significativas em design, implementação e resultados esperados. Essas descobertas ressaltam a importância de os formuladores de políticas considerarem cuidadosamente o discurso em torno desses programas, pois ele influencia a percepção pública e a eficácia das políticas. Por fim, esta pesquisa oferece uma nova abordagem metodológica para estudar programas de transferência de renda e contribui para uma compreensão mais profunda de sua estrutura, comunicação e impacto.
Journal Article