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Drawing on three-wave panel data from the Vietnam Housing Living Standard Surveys (VHLSS) 2010, 2012, and 2014 and employing a fuzzy method, this paper estimates chronic and transient poverty across multiple dimensions (income, education, health, housing, basic services, durable assets, economic status) in Vietnam. Using standard deviation as a measure of risk, this study further defines vulnerability as a probability for becoming poor and estimates vulnerability to poverty from the stochastic variation of expected deprivation within a defined interval. We further apply the method of multilevel analysis to assess the deprivation of households and distinguish vulnerability as influenced by idiosyncratic (household-specific-level) and covariate (province-level) shocks. It is observed that while the number of chronic poor in all dimensions is quite low, the proportion of chronic poor in the housing dimension is the highest (around 5% over the applicable years nationwide). Regional variation in non-monetary dimensions of poverty is substantial and clearly distinct from monetary poverty. We show that there are more multidimensionally poor households that are vulnerable to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks, and the proportion of vulnerable households (to covariate shocks) in the housing dimension is significantly greater than that in other dimensions. Almost all covariates of household and province are significantly different between vulnerable and non-vulnerable groups across the multiple dimensions of poverty other than health. Our findings suggest an urgent need for policy attention on the explicit nature of vulnerability and on the many dimensions of poverty in specific regions, and to look beyond the current official monetary-based approach.

Weather is an integral part of our life and weather shocks can have severe implications on welfare. Given evidence that points to climate change resulting in altered patterns of weather parameters and given that the Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to climatic shifts, this paper aims to contribute to poverty studies in the country by analyzing the poverty-rainfall shock nexus. The paper finds that rainfall shocks affect wages and income, which in turn, affect chronic total and chronic food poverty. Some policy directions are provided.

Indonesia has lowered the total poverty rate by less than 10%. Earlier poverty measurements in Indonesia suggest that transient poverty is more prevalent. We argue that, when employing the Equally Distributed Equivalent (EDE) approach and disaggregated poverty lines, chronic poverty is more prevalent than transient poverty. We estimated chronic and transient poverty in Indonesia from 2007 to 2014 by employing a large longitudinal dataset and disaggregated poverty line measures at the district level. The empirical results are robust in various groups based on education, gender, marital status, location (urban-rural), and employment characteristics (status, farming and non-farming, type, and sector). The results indicate that chronic poverty accounts for at least two-thirds of total poverty. Poverty gaps based on education, regional location, gender, and employment are significant. Moreover, we assess whether poverty is linked to socioeconomic aspects and policy programs using quantile regression. The findings indicate that gender (female), age, number of household members, and household location are positively related to higher poverty and chronic poverty. Household head deaths and physical disabilities are positively associated with poverty. Although the urban-rural poverty gap has decreased, casual workers remain prone to poverty. Moreover, poverty is negatively linked to educational attainment, access to financial, transportation, and communication services, suggesting that improving these aspects may help reduce poverty. Social aid programs that support health, food assistance, education, and conditional cash transfers are negatively linked to both total and chronic poverty. Energy subsidies were not associated with lower levels of poverty.

This paper addresses the gap in economic theory underlying the multidimensional concept of food security and observed data by deriving a composite food security index using the latent class model. The link between poverty and food security is then examined using the new food security index and the robustness of the link is compared with two unidimensional measures often used in the literature. Using Vietnam as a case study, it was found that a weak link exists for the rural but not for the urban composite food security index. The unidimensional measures on the other hand show a strong link in both the rural and urban regions. The results on the link are also different and mixed when two poverty types given by persistent and transient poverty are considered. These findings have important policy implications for a targeted approach to addressing food security.

This paper uses panel data and two welfare indicators, namely per capita expenditure and per capita food expenditure, to determine the frequency that the house-holds enter poverty and food poverty in the Philippines. Unlike other studies, this paper attributes similar factors to explain transient and chronic poverty but finds that these factors are more pronounced for the chronic case. Significant factors that contribute to both chronic and transient poverty and food poverty are the household heads' low educational level, affiliation in economically unstable and risky occupations such as those in the agriculture, fishery and resource sectors and those who are unskilled laborers, the lack of health insurance and high dependency burden. The paper also finds that that vulnerability to poverty and food poverty in the Philippines is high especially in the rural districts and areas with armed conflict. Households that experience higher earnings, new job, abundant harvest, better health or receipt of remittance/inheritance are less likely to be chronically poor. Shocks related to labor market affect both transient and chronic food poverty while natural calamities or health deterioration of any household member increase the probability of the household falling into chronic food poverty. Policy suggestions to address both types of poverty are provided.

Purpose More than half of the Mexican population lives in poverty. While there are many studies about poverty in Mexico, there are very few about the dynamics of poverty. The purpose of this paper is to measure chronic and transient poverty in Mexico and to analyze its determinants. Design/methodology/approach Based on the spells approach, a transition matrix was estimated and a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various socioeconomic and demographic variables upon the dynamics of poverty. Findings It was found that 36 percent of households are chronically poor and 64 percent are transiently poor. The results show that variables directly related to chronic poverty are belonging to an ethnic minority group, living in a rural area, a large family size, having a high percentage of older adults and children in the household and having a female household head. Having more education, having more assets, the age of the household head and having access to potable water and electricity in the household are variables positively related with the probability of escaping poverty. Originality/value To the authors knowledge, this is the first study on the dynamics of poverty using the spells approach for Mexico as a whole, not just for urban areas. The value of this work is that it estimates chronic and transitory poverty in Mexico as well as their possible determinants. The study findings can be used by the government to design and implement public policies to alleviate both chronic and transient poverty in Mexico.

This paper uses the 1996–2001 National Socioeconomic Survey panel database to analyse poverty dynamics in Chile, drawing a distinction between chronic and transient poverty. We found that while 20 per cent of the population was living below the official poverty line both in 1996 and 2001, only 9 per cent of the population was poor at both dates. We also found that when the poverty line was raised, the amount of households which could be considered chronically poor rose steadily, whereas the transitory component of poverty remained more or less stable. Analysis of the direct reasons for changes in household poverty status leads us to the conclusion that labour dynamics are far more relevant than demographic changes. Household heads who suffered health problems are significantly less likely to leave poverty. Household human and physical capital are also relevant, as well as the sector in which the household head works. Simulating this exercise using different poverty lines reveals that some variables are not robust to changes in the definition of poverty, while others which originally appeared to be insignificant become so for most other possible poverty lines. Este artículo utiliza los datos de la Encuesta Nacional Socioeconómica de 1996-2001 para analizar las dinámicas de la pobreza en Chile, marcando una distinción entre la pobreza crónica y la transitoria. Encontramos que mientras el 20 por ciento de la población se encontraba viviendo por debajo de la línea oficial de pobreza tanto en 1996 como en 2001, sólo el 9 por ciento de la población era pobre en ambas fechas. También encontramos que cuando la línea de pobreza fue elevada, la cantidad de hogares que se podían considerar crónicamente pobres creció de forma consistente, mientras que el componente transitorio de la pobreza permaneció más o menos estable. El análisis de las causas directas de los cambios en el estatus de la pobreza de los hogares nos llevan a la conclusión de que las dinámicas laborales son mucho más relevantes que los cambios demográficos. Los jefes de hogares que sufren de problemas de salud son significativamente menos capaces de dejar la pobreza. El capital humano y físico de los hogares también es relevante, así como el sector en el que el jefe de los hogares trabaja. Al simular este ejercicio utilizando diferentes líneas de pobreza se revela que algunas variables no son resistentes al cambio de definición de la pobreza, mientras que otras que originalmente parecían insignificantes se fortalecieron para la mayoría de las otras líneas posibles de pobreza. Palabras clave: Chile, dinámicas de pobreza, pobreza crónica, pobreza transitoria, simulación Este artigo utiliza o banco de dados do Levantamento Socioeconômico Nacional para analizar dinâmicas da pobreza no Chile, distinguindo entre pobreza transitória e crônica. Descobrimos que enquanto 20% da população vivia abaixo da linha de pobreza oficial em 1996 e em 2001, somente 9% da população vivia em condições de pobreza em ambos as datas. Também percebemos que quando elevou-se a linha de pobreza, a quantia de lares que poderiam ser considerados cronicamente pobres subiu constantemente enquanto o componente transitório da pobreza permaneceu mais ou menos estável. Análises dos motivos diretos de mudanças no status de pobreza dos lares nos leva à conclusão que as dinâmicas do trabalho são muito mais relevantes do que as mudanças demográficas. Chefes de família que sofreram problemas de saúde têm muito menos chance de deixar a pobreza. Também relevante é o capital humano e físico, assim como o setor onde no qual o chefe de família trabalha. Simulando esse exercício utilizando diferentes linhas de pobreza demonstra que algumas variáveis não resistem a mudanças na definição de pobreza, enquanto outras que originalmente pareciam insignificantes tornam-se significativas perante a maioria das outras possíveis linhas de pobreza. Palavras-chave: Chile, dinâmicas da pobreza, pobreza crônica, pobreza transitória, simulação.

The urbanization of Latin America has also lead to the urbanization of its poor. Today about half of the region’s poor live in cities. Yet the phenomenon of urban poverty is not one that is well studied or well understood and policy makers across Latin America are increasingly interested in policy advice on how to design programs and policies to tackle poverty. Urban Poor in Latin America argues that the causes of poverty, the nature of deprivation, and the policy levers to fight poverty are to a large extent site-specific. As such, the book looks at strategies to assist the urban poor in making the most of the opportunities offered by cities (deeper labor markets, better amenities and services, greater freedom, and possibly less discrimination) while helping them cope with the negative externalities (high cost of housing and difficulty of obtaining shelter; risks to physical safety associated with pollution and environmental contamination, but also crime and violence; other congestion costs, more isolation and possibly less social capital).

This paper addresses four key questions. What are the irrigation–poverty inequality linkages? Does access to irrigation water matter for rural poverty alleviation? Under what conditions does irrigation have the greatest impact on poverty? What are the pro-poor interventions that can enhance the antipoverty impact of irrigation? Findings from IWMI-led studies and other empirical studies show that: (1) irrigation enables households to improve crop productivity, grow high-valued crops, generate higher incomes and employment, earn a higher implicit wage rate for family labor and, more importantly, benefits the poor and landless through the enhanced availability of food, lower food prices, higher employment and income and other indirect effects; (2) access to irrigation water reduces the incidence and severity of poverty; (3) irrigation's impact on poverty is highest where landholdings are equitably distributed; (4) effective rural poverty alleviation requires that irrigation development be targeted to poor communities; and (5) unequal land distribution is associated with inequitable distribution of agricultural water benefits. We argue that the antipoverty impact of irrigation water can, therefore, be intensified through triggering a set of board and targeted interventions, simultaneously.