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Belarus heat tariff reform and social impact mitigation
The government of the Republic of Belarus plans to increase district heating tariffs to cost recovery levels and gradually phase out subsidies, replacing them with social assistance programs. Residential district heating tariffs in Belarus are currently at roughly 10–21 percent of cost-recovery levels. District heating subsidies are highly regressive, add costs to business, and create significant fiscal risks and macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Belarus Heat Tariff Reform and Social Impact Mitigation analyzes the social, sectoral, and fiscal impacts of the proposed tariff reform and identifies and recommends measures to mitigate adverse impacts of district heating tariff increases on the households. The analysis shows that a negative social impact is manageable if a tariff increase is accompanied by countervailing measures to compensate for the loss of purchasing power—in particular that of the poor—through targeted social assistance and energy efficiency programs. The reform is more likely to be successful if communication campaigns to address consumer concerns are carried out before significant price increases, and consumer engagement and monitoring systems are established. When tariff reform and mitigation measures are properly sequenced and coordinated, the reform will become more socially acceptable, consumers will benefit from better quality of services, the government will achieve positive fiscal savings, and the district heating sector will become sustainable in the long term.
eBook
The Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and the Kyrgyz Republic: Can It Succeed Where Its Predecessor Failed?
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan formed the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in order to create a single market. Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan all approximately doubled their average external tariffs, which were the Russian tariff, resulting in substantial transfers to Russia. Estimates show, however, that substantial progress in trade facilitation and reducing nontariff barriers could make the EAEU positive for all members. Moreover, the right to work for migrants or security arrangements with Russia may be the dominant issue for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic. So far, however, the EAEU has made little progress on reducing nontariff barriers or trade facilitation.
Journal Article
The Impact of Eurasian Economic Union Membership on Mutual Trade in Services: What Are the Challenges for Small Economies?
Despite the fact that a decade has elapsed since the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the impact of the EAEU on the economic development of its member states remains a subject of ongoing debate. This article examines the mutual trade in services between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, with the aim of assessing the impact of membership on it. The difference-in-difference model has been applied for impact assessment. The model utilizes data from five EAEU member countries—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia—capturing periods both before and after their EAEU membership, spanning 17 years in total. The results show that membership in the EAEU has significantly affected the exports of services from Russia and Belarus and has a less significant impact on the exports of services from Kazakhstan to the EAEU. At the same time, it has no significant effect on the exports of services from Kyrgyzstan and Armenia to other EAEU countries. In order to ascertain the challenges that exist, expert surveys among service exporters from Armenia have been conducted. Representatives of companies exporting various services to the EAEU have been selected as experts. The survey results indicate the presence of various barriers, including legal, logistical (for cargo transportation companies), and cultural challenges. These barriers encompass licensing difficulties, technical obstacles related to VAT refunds, a ban on cash payments, and difficulties with financial transfers due to sanctions against Russia. The findings of this research are of practical importance and can serve as a guideline for policymakers in the EAEU.
Journal Article
Belarus Heat Tariff Reform and Social Impact Mitigation
The government of the Republic of Belarus plans to increase district heating tariffs to cost recovery levels and gradually phase out subsidies, replacing them with social assistance programs. Residential district heating tariffs in Belarus are currently at roughly 10–21 percent of cost-recovery levels. District heating subsidies are highly regressive, add costs to business, and create significant fiscal risks and macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Belarus Heat Tariff Reform and Social Impact Mitigation analyzes the social, sectoral, and fiscal impacts of the proposed tariff reform and identifies and recommends measures to mitigate adverse impacts of district heating tariff increases on the households. The analysis shows that a negative social impact is manageable if a tariff increase is accompanied by countervailing measures to compensate for the loss of purchasing power—in particular that of the poor—through targeted social assistance and energy efficiency programs. The reform is more likely to be successful if communication campaigns to address consumer concerns are carried out before significant price increases, and consumer engagement and monitoring systems are established. When tariff reform and mitigation measures are properly sequenced and coordinated, the reform will become more socially acceptable, consumers will benefit from better quality of services, the government will achieve positive fiscal savings, and the district heating sector will become sustainable in the long term
Book
The Eurasian Economic Union as an Element of the Belt and Road Initiative
The New Silk Road, or actually the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a Chinese concept aimed at facilitating international trade between China, Europe and Africa as well as building a new international economic order and security system. More than 60 countries belonging to various economic groupings with different levels of economic development and economic openness have been involved in the BRI. Many branches of the BRI run through the countries belonging to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This is mainly the Trans‑Siberian corridor, being the northern branch of the Route, which is being developed in the most dynamic way and is the most exploited among all railway connections between China and Europe. In theory, the EAEU and its customs union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia should allow the easy transit of goods between Europe and Asia. Transport infrastructure, much better than in the case of the other BRI railway branches, seems to be an additional advantage. Unfortunately, political and structural factors, as well as the embargo imposed by Russia on many goods originating in Western Europe, significantly limit the possibilities of using this transport route. The aim of the article is to examine the potential of the Eurasian Economic Union as part of the Belt and Road Initiative and assess the possibility of using the transport corridor running through the territory of the EAEU within the BRI. We will also identify the main determinants that will affect the development of transport and logistics corridors running through the EAEU in the future.
Journal Article
Ranking Belarus on competitiveness and economic freedom
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide primary data so that Belarus can be incorporated into existing Global Performance Indicators (GPIs).Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted a survey following World Economic Forum (WEF) methods and combined our data with publicly available information.FindingsThe authors find that Belarus would have risen from 61st in the 2012/2013 Global Competitiveness Index to 55th in 2013/2014. The authors also estimate a position of 125th on the 2018 Economic Freedom Index.Research limitations/implicationsMany GPIs have flaws and the findings outline how they can be improved to gain more accurate views.Practical implicationsPolicymakers can now make meaningful judgments around how competitive the Belarusian economy is, and the extent of economic freedom relative to its peers.Social implicationsBelarus has received sanctions on account of its policy environment and this paper sheds light on the current state of economic freedom.Originality/valueThe paper utilises primary data that has been previously unpublished in the English language.
Journal Article
Effects of Trade Wars on Belarus
Abstract
This paper looks at the effects of the trade wars that followed 2014 events in Ukraine on Belarus. The estimation of the model predicts the increase in trade flow through Belarus and thereby the increase in its tariff revenue. Because of the ban on imports imposed by Russian Federation, its tariff revenue declined. Being a part of Eurasian Customs Union (EACU), Belarus needs to participate in the tariff revenue redistribution. The need to participate in the tariff revenue redistribution and the decline in the tariff revenue of Russian Federation led to the decrease in the after-redistribution tariff revenue of Belarus and its welfare. This paper estimates the decrease in the welfare of Belarus. Also, it evaluates the change in the redistribution schedule of EACU that Belarus should argue for.
JEL Classification: F13, F14
Journal Article
Integrity for Hire: An Analysis of a Widespread Customs Reform
Can governments improve bureaucratic performance by “hiring integrity” from the private sector? In the past 2 decades, a number of developing countries have hired private firms to conduct preshipment inspections of imports, generating independent data on the value and tariff classification of incoming shipments. I find that countries implementing such inspection programs subsequently experience large increases in import duty collections. By contrast, the growth rate of other tax revenues does not change appreciably. Additional evidence suggests that declines in falsification of import documentation are behind the import duty improvements; the programs also lead to declines in undervaluation and misreporting of goods classifications. Historically, this hired integrity appears to have been cost‐effective, with improvements in import duty collections in the first 5 years of a typical inspection program amounting to 2.6 times the program's costs.
Journal Article
Impact of WTO Accession on the Bound and Applied Tariff Rates of Russia
In this paper we use ten-digit trade data that allow an accurate assessment of how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of Russia's agreement to participate in a customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. WTO commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. Russian tariffs will ultimately fall to between 45 and 68 percent of their pre-accession levels, with the larger fall being on a weighted average, rather than an unweighted average basis. Nonetheless, bound tariffs will exceed applied tariffs for almost 1,500 tariff lines. Russia's commitments are not unusual, especially when compared to the transition countries that have acceded to the WTO.
Journal Article