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"Technology forecasting"
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The new digital age : transforming nations, businesses, and our lives
In collaboration, two leading global thinkers from in technology and foreign affairs from Google give readers their widely anticipated, transformational vision of the future: a world where everyone is connected, a world full of challenges and benefits that are ours to meet and to harness. With their combined knowledge and experiences, the authors are uniquely positioned to take on some of the toughest questions about our future: Who will be more powerful in the future, the citizen or the state? Will technology make terrorism easier or harder to carry out? What is the relationship between privacy and security, and how much will we have to give up to be part of the new digital age? In this they combine observation and insight to outline the promise and peril awaiting us in the coming decades. This is a forward-thinking account of where our world is headed and what this means for people, states and businesses. With the confidence and clarity of visionaries, the authors illustrate just how much we have to look forward to, and beware of, as the greatest information and technology revolution in human history continues to evolve. On individual, community and state levels, across every geographical and socioeconomic spectrum, they reveal the dramatic developments both good and bad, that will transform both our everyday lives and our understanding of self and society, as technology advances and our virtual identities become more and more fundamentally real. As their nuanced vision of the near future unfolds, an urban professional takes his driverless car to work, attends meetings via hologram and dispenses housekeeping robots by voice; a Congolese fisherwoman uses her smart phone to monitor market demand and coordinate sales (saving on costly refrigeration and preventing overfishing); the potential arises for \"virtual statehood\" and \"Internet asylum\" to liberate political dissidents and oppressed minorities, but also for tech-savvy autocracies (and perhaps democracies) to exploit their citizens' mobile devices for ever more ubiquitous surveillance. Along the way, we meet a cadre of international figures, including Julian Assange, who explain their own visions of our technology-saturated future. This book is an analysis of how our hyper-connected world will soon look.
Book
Patent Data Analytics for Technology Forecasting of the Railway Main Transformer
The railway main transformer is considered one of the most important electrical equipment for trains. Companies and research institutes around the world are striving to develop high-performance railway main transformers. In order to be the first mover for railway main transformer technology, companies and research institutes should predict vacant technology based on the analysis of promising detailed technology areas. Therefore, in this study, a patent analysis to predict vacant technologies based on identified promising IPC technology areas is provided. In order to identify promising detailed IPC technology areas, the technology mapping analysis, the time series analysis, and the social network analysis are conducted based on the patent-IPC matrix, extracted from the data information of 707 patents from the patent database of Korea, China, Japan, United States, Canada, and Europe. Then, through the GTM analysis based on promising detailed IPC technology areas, one vacant technology node and three analysis target nodes surrounding the vacant technology node are obtained to predict vacant technologies. From the analysis, we predict the following three groups of vacant technologies: (1) blowerless technology, (2) oil-free technology, and (3) solid-state technology. This study provides insights on the technology trend in railway main transformers, as well as the analysis framework for the development of R&D strategies based on the patent data.
Journal Article
Engineers for Change
An account of conflicts within engineering in the 1960s that helped shape our dominant contemporary understanding of technological change as the driver of history.
In the late 1960s an eclectic group of engineers joined the antiwar and civil rights activists of the time in agitating for change. The engineers were fighting to remake their profession, challenging their fellow engineers to embrace a more humane vision of technology. In Engineers for Change, Matthew Wisnioski offers an account of this conflict within engineering, linking it to deep-seated assumptions about technology and American life.
The postwar period in America saw a near-utopian belief in technology's beneficence. Beginning in the mid-1960s, however, society—influenced by the antitechnology writings of such thinkers as Jacques Ellul and Lewis Mumford—began to view technology in a more negative light. Engineers themselves were seen as conformist organization men propping up the military-industrial complex. A dissident minority of engineers offered critiques of their profession that appropriated concepts from technology's critics. These dissidents were criticized in turn by conservatives who regarded them as countercultural Luddites. And yet, as Wisnioski shows, the radical minority spurred the professional elite to promote a new understanding of technology as a rapidly accelerating force that our institutions are ill-equipped to handle. The negative consequences of technology spring from its very nature—and not from engineering's failures. “Sociotechnologists” were recruited to help society adjust to its technology. Wisnioski argues that in responding to the challenges posed by critics within their profession, engineers in the 1960s helped shape our dominant contemporary understanding of technological change as the driver of history.
eBook
Predicting Collaboration Technology Use: Integrating Technology Adoption and Collaboration Research
The paper presents a model integrating theories from collaboration research (i.e., social presence theory, channel expansion theory, and the task closure model) with a recent theory from technology adoption research (i.e., unified theory of acceptance and use of technology, abbreviated to UTAUT) to explain the adoption and use of collaboration technology. We theorize that collaboration technology characteristics, individual and group characteristics, task characteristics, and situational characteristics are predictors of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions in UTAUT. We further theorize that the UTAUT constructs, in concert with gender, age, and experience, predict intention to use a collaboration technology, which in turn predicts use. We conducted two field studies in Finland among (1) 349 short message service (SMS) users and (2) 447 employees who were potential users of a new collaboration technology in an organization. Our model was supported in both studies. The current work contributes to research by developing and testing a technology-specific model of adoption in the collaboration context.
Journal Article
How the future began : everyday life
Reveals the origins of today's modern marvels, from air travel to genetic engineering, and shows how they have changed our everyday life.
Book
Aging and Information Technology Use: Potential and Barriers
Why are older adults reluctant to adopt new technology, such as the Internet, given its potential to improve the quality of their lives? We review evidence indicating that attitudes and abilities are among the most powerful predictors of technology use. We conclude that normative age-related changes in ability must be taken into account when designing products and training programs for aging adults, and we discuss new tools to support designers. The most promising emerging technologies likely lie in training cognitive abilities and augmenting or substituting for impaired abilities. We discuss reasons to expect that the lag in technology adoption between younger and older adults may lessen but will not disappear in future generations.
Journal Article
A Framework for Industry 4.0 Readiness and Maturity of Smart Manufacturing Enterprises: A Case Study
Recently, researchers have proposed various maturity models (MMs) for assessing Industry 4.0 (I4.0) adoption; however, few have proposed a readiness framework (F/W) integrated with technology forecasting (TF) to evaluate the growth of I4.0 adoption and consequently provide a roadmap for the implementation of I4.0 for smart manufacturing enterprises. The aims of this study were (1) to review the research related to existing I4.0 MMs and F/Ws; (2) to propose a modular MM with four dimensions, five levels, 60 second-level dimensions, and 246 sub-dimensions, and a generic F/W with four layers and seven hierarchy levels; and (3) to conduct a survey-based case study of an automobile parts manufacturing enterprise by applying the MM and F/W to assess the I4.0 adoption level and TF model to anticipate the growth of I4.0. MM and F/W integrated with TF provides insight into the current situation and growth of the enterprise regarding I4.0 adoption, by identifying the gap areas, and provide a foundation for I4.0 integration. Case study findings show that the enterprise’s overall maturity score is 2.73 out of 5.00, and the forecasted year of full integration of I4.0 is between 2031 and 2034 depending upon the policy decisions.
Journal Article