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Survival analysis can be applied to build models for time to default on debt. In this paper, we report an application of survival analysis to model default on a large data set of credit card accounts. We explore the hypothesis that probability of default (PD) is affected by general conditions in the economy over time. These macroeconomic variables (MVs) cannot readily be included in logistic regression models. However, survival analysis provides a framework for their inclusion as time-varying covariates. Various MVs, such as interest rate and unemployment rate, are included in the analysis. We show that inclusion of these indicators improves model fit and affects PD yielding a modest improvement in predictions of default on an independent test set.

Over the past decade, cross-docking has emerged as an important material handling technology in transportation. A variation of the well-known Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), the VRP with Cross-Docking (VRPCD) arises in a number of logistics planning contexts. This paper addresses the VRPCD, where a set of homogeneous vehicles are used to transport orders from the suppliers to the corresponding customers via a cross-dock. The orders can be consolidated at the cross-dock but cannot be stored for very long because the cross-dock does not have long-term inventory-holding capabilities. The objective of the VRPCD is to minimize the total travel time while respecting time window constraints at the nodes and a time horizon for the whole transportation operation. In this paper, a mixed integer programming formulation for the VRPCD is proposed. A tabu search heuristic is embedded within an adaptive memory procedure to solve the problem. The proposed algorithm is implemented and tested on data sets provided by the Danish consultancy Transvision, and involving up to 200 pairs of nodes. Experimental results show that this algorithm can produce high-quality solutions (less than 5% away from optimal solution values) within very short computational time.

This paper presents a method for solving multi-depot vehicle routing problem (MDVRP). First, a virtual central depot is added to transfer MDVRP to the multi-depot vehicle routing problem with the virtual central depot (V-MDVRP), which is similar to a vehicle routing problem (VRP) with the virtual central depot as the origin. An improved ant colony optimization with coarse-grain parallel strategy, ant-weight strategy and mutation operation, is presented for the V-MDVRP. The computational results for 23 benchmark problems are reported and compared to those of other ant colony optimizations.

This paper investigates repetitive purchase decisions of perishable items in the face of uncertain demand (the newsvendor problem). The experimental design includes: high, or low profit levels; and uniform, or normal demand distributions. The results show that in all cases both learning and convergence occur and are effected by: (1) the mean demand; (2) the order-size of the maximal expected profit; and (3) the demand level of the immediately preceding round. In all cases of the experimental design, the purchase order converges to a value between the mean demand and the quantity for maximizing the expected profit.

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are a special case in the financial world. They have a double financial and social role and need to be efficient at both. In this paper, we try to measure the efficiency of MFIs in relation to financial and social outputs using data envelopment analysis. For the analysis of financial efficiency, we rely on existing literature for traditional financial institutions. To this we have added two indicators of social performance: impact on women and a poverty reach index. We have studied the relationship between social and financial efficiency, and the relationship between efficiency and other indicators, such as profitability. Other aspects studied are the relation between social efficiency and type of institution-Non-Governmental Organization (NGO)-, non-NGO, and the importance of geographical region of activity. The results reveal the importance of social efficiency assessment.

In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to substantially change both marketing strategies and customer behaviors. Building from not only extant research but also extensive interactions with practice, the authors propose a multidimensional framework for understanding the impact of AI involving intelligence levels, task types, and whether AI is embedded in a robot. Prior research typically addresses a subset of these dimensions; this paper integrates all three into a single framework. Next, the authors propose a research agenda that addresses not only how marketing strategies and customer behaviors will change in the future, but also highlights important policy questions relating to privacy, bias and ethics. Finally, the authors suggest AI will be more effective if it augments (rather than replaces) human managers.

In the Dial-a-Ride problem (DARP), customers request transportation from an operator. A request consists of a specified pickup location and destination location along with a desired departure or arrival time and capacity demand. The aim of DARP is to minimize transportation cost while satisfying customer service level constraints (Quality of Service). In this paper, we present a genetic algorithm (GA) for solving the DARP. The algorithm is based on the classical cluster-first, route-second approach, where it alternates between assigning customers to vehicles using a GA and solving independent routing problems for the vehicles using a routing heuristic. The algorithm is implemented in Java and tested on publicly available data sets. The new solution method has achieved solutions comparable with the current state-of-the-art methods.

This paper presents the SR-GCWS-CS probabilistic algorithm that combines Monte Carlo simulation with splitting techniques and the Clarke and Wright savings heuristic to find competitive quasi-optimal solutions to the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) in reasonable response times. The algorithm, which does not require complex fine-tuning processes, can be used as an alternative to other metaheuristics—such as Simulated Annealing, Tabu Search, Genetic Algorithms, Ant Colony Optimization or GRASP, which might be more difficult to implement and which might require non-trivial fine-tuning processes—when solving CVRP instances. As discussed in the paper, the probabilistic approach presented here aims to provide a relatively simple and yet flexible algorithm which benefits from: (a) the use of the geometric distribution to guide the random search process, and (b) efficient cache and splitting techniques that contribute to significantly reduce computational times. The algorithm is validated through a set of CVRP standard benchmarks and competitive results are obtained in all tested cases. Future work regarding the use of parallel programming to efficiently solve large-scale CVRP instances is discussed. Finally, it is important to notice that some of the principles of the approach presented here might serve as a base to develop similar algorithms for other routing and scheduling combinatorial problems.

Government agencies, not-for-profit organizations, and private corporations often assume leading roles in the delivery of supplies, equipment, and manpower to support initial response operations after a disaster strikes. These organizations are faced with challenging logistics decisions to ensure that the right supplies (including equipment and personnel) are in the right places, at the right times, and in the right quantities. Such logistics planning decisions are further complicated by the uncertainties associated with predicting whether or not a potential threat will materialize into an emergency situation. This paper introduces newsvendor variants that account for demand uncertainty as well as the uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of an extreme event. The optimal inventory level is determined and compared to the classic newsvendor solution and the difference is interpreted as the insurance premium associated with proactive disaster-relief planning. The insurance policy framework represents a practical approach for decision makers to quantify the risks and benefits associated with stocking decisions related to preparing for disaster relief efforts or supply chain disruptions.

This paper is drawn from the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in helping a Portuguese bank to manage the performance of its branches. The bank wanted to set targets for the branches on such variables as growth in number of clients, growth in funds deposited and so on. Such variables can take positive and negative values but apart from some exceptions, traditional DEA models have hitherto been restricted to non-negative data. We report on the development of a model to handle unrestricted data in a DEA framework and illustrate the use of this model on data from the bank concerned.