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The characteristics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have experienced notable changes since the late 1990s, including a breakdown of the zonal mean upper-ocean heat content as a precursor for ENSO. These changes also initiated a debate on the role of thermocline variations on the development of ENSO events since the beginning of the twenty-first century. In this study, the connection between thermocline variations and El Niño and La Niña events is examined separately for the 1980–98 and 1999–2012 periods. The analysis highlights the important role of thermocline variations in modulating ENSO evolutions in both periods. It is found that thermocline variation averaged in the central tropical Pacific, including both equatorial and off-equatorial regions, is a good precursor for ENSO evolutions before and after 1999, while the traditional basinwide mean of equatorial thermocline variation is a good precursor only before 1999. The new precursor, including both high-frequency variability in equatorial regions and low-frequency variability in off-equatorial regions, is found to be indicative of multiyear persistent warm and cold conditions in the tropical Pacific. Further, it is found that the strength of the subtropical cells (STCs) interior mass transport in both hemispheres increased rapidly around the late 1990s. It is proposed that the strengthened STC interior transports provide a pathway for the enhanced influence of off-equatorial thermocline variations on the development of ENSO events after 1999.

The trends over recent decades in tropical Pacific sea surface and upper ocean temperature are examined in observations-based products, an ocean reanalysis and the latest models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six and the Multimodel Large Ensembles Archive. Comparison is made using three metrics of sea surface temperature (SST) trend—the east–west and north–south SST gradients and a pattern correlation for the equatorial region—as well as change in thermocline depth. It is shown that the latest generation of models persist in not reproducing the observations-based SST trends as a response to radiative forcing and that the latter are at the far edge or beyond the range of modeled internal variability. The observed combination of thermocline shoaling and lack of warming in the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region is similarly at the extreme limit of modeled behavior. The persistence over the last century and a half of the observed trend toward an enhanced east–west SST gradient and, in four of five observed gridded datasets, to an enhanced equatorial north–south SST gradient, is also at the limit of model behavior. It is concluded that it is extremely unlikely that the observed trends are consistent with modeled internal variability. Instead, the results support the argument that the observed trends are a response to radiative forcing in which an enhanced east–west SST gradient and thermocline shoaling are key and that the latest generation of climate models continue to be unable to simulate this aspect of climate change.

In August 2020, during a dramatical summer retreat of sea ice in the Nansen Basin, a study of phytoplankton was conducted on the transect from two northern stations in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) (north of 83° N m and east of 38° E) through the open water to the southern station located in the Franz Victoria Trench. The presence of melted polar surface waters (mPSW), polar surface waters (PSW), and Atlantic waters (AW) were characteristic of the MIZ. There are only two water masses in open water, namely PSW and AW, at the southernmost station; the contribution of AW was minimal. In the MIZ, first-year and multiyear ice species and Atlantic species were noted; Atlantic species and first-year ice species were in open water, and only ice flora was at the southernmost station. The maximum phytoplankton biomass (30 g · m[sup.−3]) was recorded at the northernmost station of the MIZ, and 99% of the phytoplankton consisted of a large diatom Porosira glacialis. Intensive growth of this species occurred on the subsurface halocline separating mPSW from PSW. A thermocline was formed in open water south of the MIZ towards the Franz Victoria Trench. A strong stratification decreases vertical nutrient fluxes, so phytoplankton biomass decreases significantly. Phytoplankton formed the maximum biomass in the thermocline. When moving south, biomass decreased and its minimum values were observed at the southernmost station where the influence of AW is minimal or completely absent. A transition from the silicon-limited state of phytoplankton (MIZ area) to nitrogen-limited (open water) was noted.

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.

A large fraction (35%–50%) of observed La Niña events last two years or longer, in contrast to the great majority of El Niño events, which last one year. Here, the authors explore the nonlinear processes responsible for the multiyear persistence of La Niña in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), a coupled climate model that simulates the asymmetric duration of La Niña and El Niño events realistically. The authors develop a nonlinear delayed-oscillator (NDO) model of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to explore the mechanisms governing the duration of La Niña. The NDO includes nonlinear and seasonally dependent feedbacks derived from the CCSM4 heat budget, which allow it to simulate key ENSO features in quantitative agreement with CCSM4. Sensitivity experiments with the NDO show that the nonlinearity in the delayed thermocline feedback is the sole process controlling the duration of La Niña events. The authors’ results show that, as La Niña events become stronger, the delayed thermocline response does not increase proportionally. This nonlinearity arises from two processes: 1) the response of winds to sea surface temperature anomalies and 2) the ability of thermocline depth anomalies to influence temperatures at the base of the mixed layer. Thus, strong La Niña events require that the thermocline remains deeper for longer than 1 yr for sea surface temperatures to return to neutral. Ocean reanalysis data show evidence for this thermocline nonlinearity, suggesting that this process could be at work in nature.

The Makassar Strait throughflow (MST) is the major component of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), transferring Pacific water into the Indian Ocean. In our previous study, we identified a new zonal pathway, a. k.a. the North Equatorial Subsurface Current (NESC), which carried equatorial water into the MST sub‐thermocline (>300 m) in the summer 2016 following the 2015/16 El Niño. We now show continued strong southward MST in the sub‐thermocline during the winter of 2016–2017, with salinity higher than that in the summer 2016, due to direct South Pacific water intrusion into the Sulawesi Sea. The origin of the intrusion is identified from the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC) and from an anomalous westward flow along 3°N in the western equatorial Pacific. The identified interannual variability of the western Pacific Ocean circulation is particularly strong in the winter following super El Niño events. Plain Language Summary The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transfers Pacific waters into the eastern Indian Ocean through the complex passages of the Maritime Continent, affecting the water properties and heat content in both oceans. The vertical structure of the ITF plays an important role in modulating the Indo‐Pacific Ocean heat content and climate. Understanding the Pacific water mass sources of the ITF and their variations is essential to understanding interocean heat and salt transports. The sub‐thermocline (>300 m) throughflow within the Indonesian Seas, has waters drawn from the relatively salty South Pacific thermocline. To date, the pathway of the South Pacific water into the ITF is not understood well. Here we present evidence showing a new pathway for high salinity South Pacific water flowing into the sub‐thermocline Makassar Strait directly after strong El Nino events, which may become more common in the future. This study helps to understand the importance of the South Pacific water in the variations of the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt and in biogeochemical processes with ecological impacts downstream of the ITF. Key Points Strong anomalous southward flow with higher salinity in the winter of 2016–2017 was observed in the sub‐thermocline Makassar Strait The high salinity is due to direct intrusion of South Pacific water from the western boundary current and an anomalous flow along 3 °N The identified direct intrusion of South Pacific water into the Makassar Strait appears strong in the winter following a super El Niño

Surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation datasets are examined to contrast two distinct types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific: an eastern-Pacific (EP) type and a central-Pacific (CP) type. An analysis method combining empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and linear regression is used to separate these two types. Correlation and composite analyses based on the principal components of the EOF were performed to examine the structure, evolution, and teleconnection of these two ENSO types. The EP type of ENSO is found to have its SST anomaly center located in the eastern equatorial Pacific attached to the coast of South America. This type of ENSO is associated with basinwide thermocline and surface wind variations and shows a strong teleconnection with the tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the CP type of ENSO has most of its surface wind, SST, and subsurface anomalies confined in the central Pacific and tends to onset, develop, and decay in situ. This type of ENSO appears less related to the thermocline variations and may be influenced more by atmospheric forcing. It has a stronger teleconnection with the southern Indian Ocean. Phase-reversal signatures can be identified in the anomaly evolutions of the EP-ENSO but not for the CP-ENSO. This implies that the CP-ENSO may occur more as events or epochs than as a cycle. The EP-ENSO has experienced a stronger interdecadal change with the dominant period of its SST anomalies shifted from 2 to 4 yr near 1976/77, while the dominant period for the CP-ENSO stayed near the 2-yr band. The different onset times of these two types of ENSO imply that the difference between the EP and CP types of ENSO could be caused by the timing of the mechanisms that trigger the ENSO events.

The changes in the intensity of the southern tropical Indian Ocean dipole mode (STIOD) are investigated using observations and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project in this study. The positive STIOD is characterized as cold SST anomalies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) and warm SST anomalies over the southcentral Indian Ocean (SCIO), which peak in boreal summer. It is suggested that the intensity of interannual variability in the STIOD experienced prominent interdecadal changes from 1970 to the present. The STIOD was relatively weak before the late 1980s, while it is enhanced significantly during the late 1980s to early-2000s and displayed some decrease in the intensity after the early-2000s. As an important generation mechanism, changes in the strengths of the Bjerknes feedback between the SCIO and SEIO mainly contribute to the variations of the STIOD intensity. The changes in Bjerknes feedback are associated with the variations in climatological mean states over the tropical Indian Ocean. The warmer climatological SST strengthens the efficiency of the SEIO SST in driving wind. On the other hand, the combined effects of the Indonesian Throughflow and surface climatological zonal winds alter the mean thermocline depth over the SEIO, contributing to the variations in the relationship between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies in situ. Two sets of historical and RCP8.5 simulations from CESM1-LE with 35 ensemble members are analyzed to confirm the roles of mean state changes on the intensity of interannual variability of STIOD.