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Global climate models (GCMs) have limited capacity in simulating spatially non-uniform sea-level rise owing to their coarse resolutions and absence of tides in the marginal seas. Here, regional ocean climate models (RCMs) that consider tides were used to address these limitations in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas through dynamical downscaling. Four GCMs that drive the RCMs were selected based on a performance evaluation along the RCM boundaries, and the latter were validated by comparing historical results with observations. High-resolution (1/20°) RCMs were used to project non-uniform changes in the sea-level under intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high-end emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The predicted local sea-level rise was higher in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), where the currents and eddy motions were active. The tidal amplitude changes in response to sea-level rise were significant in the shallow areas of the Yellow Sea (YS). Dynamically downscaled simulations enabled the determination of practical sea-level rise (PSLR), including changes in tidal amplitude and natural variability. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum PSLR was ∼85 cm in the YS and East China Sea (ECS), and ∼78 cm in the EJS. The contribution of natural sea-level variability changes in the EJS was greater than that in the YS and ECS, whereas changes in the tidal contribution were higher in the YS and ECS. Accordingly, high-resolution RCMs provided spatially different PSLR estimates, indicating the importance of improving model resolution for local sea-level projections in marginal seas.

M.S. Molodenskiy’s problem, which describes the state of an elastic self-gravitating compressible sphere, is generalized to the case of a biaxial hydrostatically equilibrium rotating elliptical inelastic shell. The system of sixth-order equations is supplemented with corrections due to the relative and Coriolis accelerations. The ordinary and load Love numbers of degree 2 are calculated with allowance for their latitude dependence and dissipation for different models of the Earth’s structure (the AK135, IASP91, and PREM models). The problem is solved by Love’s method. The theoretical amplitude delta factors and phase shifts of second-order tidal waves for an oceanic Earth are compared with their most recent empirical counterparts obtained by the GGP network superconducting gravimeters. In particular, it is shown that a good matching (up to the fourth decimal place) of the theoretical and observed amplitude factors of semidiurnal tides does not require the application of the nonhydrostatic theory.

Ji, X.-M.; Yang, Y.; Fang, Y.-J., and Zhang, W., 2020. Tidal-fluvial processes at the outlets of delta distributaries: A multi-cruise observational study. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1449-1453. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The hydrodynamics in delta distributaries has tremendous impact on sediment transport, water quality and deltaic ecosystems; yet many processes acting at the riverine-esturarine interface of a delta are not well understood. This contribution investigates the interplay between riverine runoff and tidal motions at the outlets of delta distributaries. We focus on the tidal-fluvial processes at eight outlets of three main distributaries of the Pearl River Delta, China. The field measurements of water levels, discharges, velocities at the eight outlets were conducted synchronously for five times, with three times in wet season during spring, moderate and neap tides, respectively, and once in normal season, once in dry season. The observations reveal that the tidal asymmetry in the Pearl River Estuary is largely influenced by river discharge. The tidal velocity amplitudes depend mainly on the river discharge and tidal prism. To be specific, while during low discharge conditions the presence of a river discharge decreases tidal velocity amplitudes, during very high flow regimes the effect of tides at the distributary outlets is magnified with a noteworthy increase in tidal velocity amplitudes.

Tidal flats are shrinking in extent globally. The dynamics of the response of estuarine tidal flats to global environmental changes remain unclear. Tidal-flat morphology is shaped by the interplay among wave and tidal forces, river discharge and sediment supply, and preservation of tidal flats requires a balance between erosional and depositional processes be maintained. Here we assess tidal-flat morphodynamic changes of 40 globally distributed estuaries with contrasting tidal amplitudes between 1986 and 2011 from analyses of 4,939 satellite images. We consider both vegetated and unvegetated intertidal areas. From comparisons with remote-sensing-derived turbidity estimates, we identify a critical turbidity threshold indicative of a minimum sediment supply along with the hydrodynamic forces, which is necessary to maintain tidal flats. Tidal flats in intertidal areas in estuaries with low turbidity face retreat, with the critical turbidity threshold increasing with increasing tidal amplitudes. By contrast, estuaries with high turbidity tend to exhibit laterally or vertically expanding tidal flats. However, despite estuaries with limited tidal ranges having relatively low turbidity thresholds, environmental or anthropogenic alterations can still adversely affect the morphology of tidal flats. Our findings demonstrate the need to consider sediment supply in integrated estuarine management strategies to maintain the ecological integrity and flood defence function of tidal flats. Maintenance of estuarine tidal flats requires a minimum turbidity level that increases with tidal range, according to a global analysis of tidal-flat changes from satellite imagery.

Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation (Z*MHW), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z*MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z*MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z*MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z*MHW and Z*MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z*MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z*MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Natural resources of the Mekong River are essential to livelihood of tens of millions of people. Previous studies highlighted that upstream hydro-infrastructure developments impact flow regime, sediment and nutrient transport, bed and bank stability, fish productivity, biodiversity and biology of the basin. Here, we show that tidal amplification and saline water intrusion in the Mekong Delta develop with alarming paces. While offshore M 2 tidal amplitude increases by 1.2–2 mm yr −1 due to sea level rise, tidal amplitude within the delta is increasing by 2 cm yr −1 and salinity in the channels is increasing by 0.2–0.5 PSU yr −1 . We relate these changes to 2–3 m bed level incisions in response to sediment starvation, caused by reduced upstream sediment supply and downstream sand mining, which seems to be four times more than previous estimates. The observed trends cannot be explained by deeper channels due to relative sea level rise; while climate change poses grave natural hazards in the coming decades, anthropogenic forces drive short-term trends that already outstrip climate change effects. Considering the detrimental trends identified, it is imperative that the Mekong basin governments converge to effective transboundary management of the natural resources, before irreversible damage is made to the Mekong and its population.

Coastal locations around the United States, particularly along the Atlantic coast, are experiencing recurrent flooding at high tide. Continued sea-level rise (SLR) will exacerbate the issue where present, and many more locations will begin to experience recurrent high-tide flooding (HTF) in the coming decades. Here we use established SLR scenarios and flooding thresholds to demonstrate how the combined effects of SLR and nodal cycle modulations of tidal amplitude lead to acute inflections in projections of future HTF. The mid-2030s, in particular, may see the onset of rapid increases in the frequency of HTF in multiple US coastal regions. We also show how annual cycles and sea-level anomalies lead to extreme seasons or months during which many days of HTF cluster together. Clustering can lead to critical frequencies of HTF occurring during monthly or seasonal periods one to two decades prior to being expected on an annual basis.High-tide flooding (HTF) is more likely with sea-level rise. Projections along the United States coastline, considering likely sea-level rise and tidal amplitude cycles, suggest increased HTF event clustering in time and rapid increases in annual HTF frequency as early as the mid-2030s.

The effects of sea-level rise on the future morphological functioning of estuaries are largely unknown because tidal amplitudes will change due to combined deepening of the estuary mouth and shifting amphidromic points at sea. Fluvial sediment supply is also globally decreasing, which hampers infilling necessary to maintain elevation relative to sea level. Here we model 36 estuaries worldwide with varying sizes, shapes and hydrodynamic characteristics, and find that small shallow estuaries and large deep estuaries respond in opposite ways to sea-level rise. Large estuaries are threatened by sediment starvation and therefore loss of intertidal area, particularly if tidal amplitude decreases at the mouth. In contrast, small estuaries face enhanced flood risks and are more sensitive to tidal amplification on sea-level-rise-induced deepening. Estuary widening can partly mitigate adverse effects. In large estuaries, expanded intertidal areas increase tidal prism and available erodible sediment for adaptation, whereas it slightly reduces tidal amplification in small estuaries.

On timescales longer than the solar cycle, long-term changes in CO2 concentration and geomagnetic field have the potential to affect thermospheric dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the thermospheric dynamical response to these two factors during the Holocene, using two sets of ∼12 000-year control runs by the coupled thermosphere–ionosphere model, GCITEM-IGGCAS. The main results indicate that increased/decreased CO2 will enhance/weaken the thermospheric circulation throughout the Holocene, but this effect is non-linear. The cooling effect of CO2 in the thermosphere further provides plausible conditions for atmospheric tidal propagation and increases the thermospheric tidal amplitude. Geomagnetic variations induce hemispheric asymmetrical responses in the thermospheric circulation. Large changes in the circulation occur at high latitudes in the hemisphere with distant magnetic pole drift, inferring a crucial role of geomagnetic non-dipole variations in circulation changes. A positive correlation between the diurnal migrating tide (DW1) and geomagnetic dipole moment is revealed for the first time. The amplitude of DW1 in temperature will increase by ∼1–3 K for each 1×1022 A m2 increase in dipole moment.

The mixing of river plumes into the coastal ocean influences the fate of river-borne tracers over the inner-shelf, though the relative importance of mixing mechanisms under different environmental conditions is not fully understood. In particular, the contribution to plume mixing from bottom generated shear stresses, referred to as tidal mixing, is rarely considered important relative to frontal and stratified shear (interfacial) mixing in surface advected plumes. The effect of different mixing mechanisms is investigated numerically on an idealized, tidally pulsed river plume with varying river discharge and tidal amplitudes. Frontal, interfacial, and tidal mixing are quantified via a mixing energy budget to compare the relative importance of each to the overall buoyancy flux over one tide. Results indicate that tidal mixing can dominate the energy budget when the tidal mixing power exceeds that of the input buoyancy flux. This occurs when the non-dimensional number, Ri E (the estuarine Richardson number divided by the mouth Rossby number), is generally less than 1. Tidal mixing accounts for between 60% and 90% of the net mixing when Ri E < 1, with the largest contributions during large tides and low discharge. Interfacial mixing varies from 10% to 90% of total mixing and dominates the budget for high discharge events with relatively weaker tides ( Ri E > 1). Frontal mixing is always less than 10% of total mixing and never dominates the budget. This work is the first to show tidal mixing as an important mixing mechanism in surface advected river plumes.