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"Tidal basins Computer simulation."
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Critical width of tidal flats triggers marsh collapse in the absence of sea-level rise
High rates of wave-induced erosion along salt marsh boundaries challenge the idea that marsh survival is dictated by the competition between vertical sediment accretion and relative sea-level rise. Because waves pounding marshes are often locally generated in enclosed basins, the depth and width of surrounding tidal flats have a pivoting control on marsh erosion. Here, we show the existence of a threshold width for tidal flats bordering salt marshes. Once this threshold is exceeded, irreversible marsh erosion takes place even in the absence of sea-level rise. This catastrophic collapse occurs because of the positive feedbacks among tidal flat widening by wave-induced marsh erosion, tidal flat deepening driven by wave bed shear stress, and local wind wave generation. The threshold width is determined by analyzing the 50-y evolution of 54 marsh basins along the US Atlantic Coast. The presence of a critical basin width is predicted by a dynamic model that accounts for both horizontal marsh migration and vertical adjustment of marshes and tidal flats. Variability in sediment supply, rather than in relative sea-level rise or wind regime, explains the different critical width, and hence erosion vulnerability, found at different sites. We conclude that sediment starvation of coastlines produced by river dredging and damming is a major anthropogenic driver of marsh loss at the study sites and generates effects at least comparable to the accelerating sea-level rise due to global warming.
Journal Article
Cyclic channel-shoal dynamics at the Ameland inlet: the impact on waves, tides, and sediment transport
Ebb-tidal deltas are shallow features seaward of tidal inlets, acting as a wave filter for the nearby barrier island and a source of sediment for the landward tidal basin. On many ebb-tidal deltas, channels rotate and shoals periodically attach to the downdrift island. This cyclic behavior can also include an alternation between one- and two-channel inlet configurations. The effect of the long-term (> years) cyclic behavior on the short-term patterns of waves, tidal currents, and sediment transport is unknown. Here, we use Delft3D/SWAN models to simulate the Dutch Ameland tidal inlet during four phases of the cycle to show that many of the physical processes on the ebb-tidal delta and in the entire tidal system are affected by the cyclic evolution of channels and shoals. In particular, the periodic variations in the channel positions appear to significantly influence the tidal asymmetry in the inlet and mean flow characteristics. As a result, the net sediment exchange between basin and sea is cyclic and follows the periodicity of the one- and two-channel inlet configuration. Moreover, we find that the wave energy dissipation on the ebb-tidal delta is enhanced by a shallow shoal or an updrift-oriented ebb-channel, which shields the coast from the incoming waves. Our results demonstrate how the cyclic channel-shoal dynamics at natural tidal inlets is likely to affect the safety functions of the ebb-tidal deltas, varying the offshore wave energy dissipation as well as adjusting the sediment pathways on the ebb-tidal delta.
Journal Article
Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
The Earth is currently 180 Myr into a supercontinent cycle that began with the break-up of Pangaea and which will end around 200–250 Myr (million years) in the future, as the next supercontinent forms. As the continents move around the planet they change the geometry of ocean basins, and thereby modify their resonant properties. In doing so, oceans move through tidal resonance, causing the global tides to be profoundly affected. Here, we use a dedicated and established global tidal model to simulate the evolution of tides during four future supercontinent scenarios. We show that the number of tidal resonances on Earth varies between one and five in a supercontinent cycle and that they last for no longer than 20 Myr. They occur in opening basins after about 140–180 Myr, an age equivalent to the present-day Atlantic Ocean, which is near resonance for the dominating semi-diurnal tide. They also occur when an ocean basin is closing, highlighting that within its lifetime, a large ocean basin – its history described by the Wilson cycle – may go through two resonances: one when opening and one when closing. The results further support the existence of a super-tidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle and gives a deep-time proxy for global tidal energetics.
Journal Article
Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique
Coastal cities combine intensive socioeconomic activities and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In designing strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models, but they can only compare a limited number of strategies due to computational constraints. This limits the efficacy of standard flood simulation models in the crucial conceptual phase of flood risk management. This paper presents the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES) model, which provides useful risk information in this early conceptual phase. FLORES rapidly performs numerous simulations and compares the impact of many storms, strategies, and future scenarios. This article presents FLORES and demonstrates its merits in a case study for Beira, Mozambique. Our results demonstrate that expansion of the drainage capacity and strengthening of its coastal protection in the southwest are crucial components of any effective flood risk management strategy for Beira.
Journal Article
Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise?
Accelerated sea level rise may have serious implications for the Wadden Sea ecosystem in its present state. If sediment accumulation rates on the extensive intertidal flats stay behind sea level rise, the flats will eventually submerge. Drowning of the flats has negative consequences for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Based upon an evaluation of steady state relations for Wadden Sea tidal basins, Hofstede (Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie 59(3): 377-391, 2015) postulated that the capacity of these basins to balance sea level rise by accumulation on intertidal flats seems positively related to mean tidal range. In the present study, morphodynamical simulations with a numerical model were performed for two tidal basins in the German Wadden Sea to verify the empirically established hypothesis. The following conclusions are established. Larger mean tidal range improves the capacity of Wadden Sea tidal basins to balance sea level rise. Wadden Sea intertidal flats are effective sediment sinks and seem quite resilient against (higher rates of) sea level rise. Finally, subtidal gullies may constitute a significant sediment source for accumulation on intertidal flats in response to sea level rise. With respect to the limited comparability of the two investigated tidal systems, morphodynamical modelling of all Wadden Sea tidal systems should be conducted.
Journal Article
Comprehensive performance analysis of training functions in flow prediction model using artificial neural network
Higher Himalayan catchments are often poorly monitored for hydrological activities involving flood flow prediction for the safety of riverside communities and the successful operation of hydropower projects. This study aimed to estimate the comparative performance of artificial neural network (ANN) based flow prediction models using 10 years of daily river flow data of Kaligandaki catchment at Kotagaun, Nepal, which is a snow-fed catchment in the Himalayan region. The flow prediction models were trained and tested at a hydrological station using the previous 3 days' river flow data to predict the 1-day ahead flow data. Eight diferent training functions were employed in an ANN model for comprehensive statistical assessment of accuracy and precision of each training function. The most significant and validated result obtained in this study is the comprehensive comparison of various training functions' performance, and identification of the most eficient training function for the study case. Among the training functions investigated, the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation function exhibits the best performance for the model having NashSutclife eficiency, root mean square error and mean absolute error values of 0.866, 209.578 and 75.422, respectively. This study provides a fundamental basis for accurate flow prediction of topographically challenged catchments where hydrological monitoring and data collection may be limited. In particular, this model will help to improve early warning system, hydrological planning, and the safety of riverside communities in the Himalayan region.
Journal Article
Dynamic Wetland Evolution in the Upper Yellow River Basin: A 30-Year Spatiotemporal Analysis and Future Projections Under Multiple Protection Scenarios
Wetland monitoring is a key means of protecting wetland ecosystems. In order to achieve continuous monitoring of wetlands and predict future patterns, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of wetlands in the upper reaches of the Yellow River from 1990 to 2020, and uses the Patch Generation Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the spatial distribution of wetlands from 2040 to 2060 under four scenarios: farmland protection (FPS), wetland protection (WPS), comprehensive protection (CPS) and natural development (NDS). The results show that the total area of wetlands in the upper reaches of the Yellow River is on the rise, increasing by 7.12% in 2020 compared with 1990. The changes in various types of wetlands are different: the areas of river and canals increased by 26.39% and 57.97%, respectively, paddy fields increased by 7.95%, lakes remained basically stable, and tidal flats decreased by 5.67%. The simulation results of the future spatial pattern of wetlands show that: under the FPS scenario, farmland and related land use will expand significantly, mainly through the development of beaches, dry land and unused land, while under the WPS scenario, wetlands will be strictly protected, the area of water resource features such as rivers, lakes and reservoirs will increase significantly, and land use changes will be more ecologically oriented. Compared with the CPS and NDS scenarios, the wetland protection and urbanization process in the upper reaches of the Yellow River can be balanced under the FPS and WPS scenarios. This study has important reference value for the protection and sustainable development of wetland ecosystems in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.
Journal Article
Wind-wave and Tidally Driven Sediment Resuspension in a Macrotidal Basin
A coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment model is used to simulate the broad-scale tidal circulation, surface waves, and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in Minas Basin, a 70-km long tidal estuary in the Bay of Fundy, during winter and summer periods. The model hydrodynamics are validated using acoustic-Doppler current profile observations, the surface SSC predictions are compared to satellite observations, and model results indicate that strong seasonal signals in SSC can be explained in part by seasonal changes in fetch-limited surface waves generated by local winds over the basin. The spatial and temporal variability of SSC is evaluated in this study by focussing on different forcing conditions from waves and tidal currents, the two primary physical process that influence the response of sediments in suspension. Model predictions in the intertidal areas indicate that surface waves can increase the bed shear stress from tidal currents alone by up to 1–5 Nm⁻², causing excess bed shear stresses to be higher and result in higher SSC by 100–200 gm⁻³ particularly during wind events that are stronger and more frequent in winter months. Resuspension of sediments on tidal flats is driven by the combination of shear stresses from near-bed wave orbital velocities and tidal currents, and transport of the suspended materials over deeper areas of the basin is driven by advection from the strong tidal currents.
Journal Article
Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China
The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km2), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12 m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.26–0.37 and 0.46–0.60 m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05–0.39 m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce flood risk in the Lake Taihu basin, especially in those low-lying surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River significantly, which is of great benefit to the flood management in the basin and the Yangtze River Delta.
Journal Article