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Understanding birth cohort-specific tobacco smoking patterns and their association with total and cause-specific mortality is important for projecting future deaths due to tobacco smoking across Asian populations. To assess secular trends of tobacco smoking by countries or regions and birth cohorts and evaluate the consequent mortality in Asian populations. This pooled meta-analysis was based on individual participant data from 20 prospective cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Between September 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018, a total of 1 002 258 Asian individuals 35 years or older were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. The pooled results were presented for mainland China; Japan; Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; and India. Tobacco use status, age at starting smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and age at quitting smoking. Country or region and birth cohort-specific mortality and the population attributable risk for deaths from all causes and from lung cancer. Of 1 002 258 participants (51.1% women and 48.9% men; mean [SD] age at baseline, 54.6 [10.4] years), 144 366 deaths (9158 deaths from lung cancer) were ascertained during a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.7 (5.3) years. Smoking prevalence for men steadily increased in China and India, whereas it plateaued in Japan and Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Among Asian male smokers, the mean age at starting smoking decreased in successive birth cohorts, while the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day increased. These changes were associated with an increasing relative risk of death in association with current smoking in successive birth cohorts of pre-1920, 1920s, and 1930 or later, with hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.17-1.37) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.35-1.61) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.57-1.84) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. The hazard ratios for lung cancer mortality were 3.38 (95% CI, 2.25-5.07) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 4.74 (95% CI, 3.56-6.32) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 4.80 (95% CI, 3.71-6.19) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking accounted for 12.5% (95% CI, 8.4%-16.3%) of all-cause mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 21.1% (95% CI, 17.3%-24.9%) of all-cause mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 29.3% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.3%) of all-cause mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking among men accounted for 56.6% (95% CI, 44.7%-66.3%) of lung cancer mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 66.6% (95% CI, 58.3%-73.5%) of lung cancer mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 68.4% (95% CI, 61.3%-74.4%) of lung cancer mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. For women, tobacco smoking patterns and lung cancer mortality varied substantially by countries and regions. In this study, mortality associated with tobacco smoking continued to increase among Asian men in recent birth cohorts, indicating that tobacco smoking will remain a major public health problem in most Asian countries in the coming decades. Implementing comprehensive tobacco-control programs is warranted to end the tobacco epidemic.

Abstract To investigate the associations between tobacco smoking and mortality, focusing on all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, with analyses stratified by sex. A total of 333 559 participants were included. Smoking status was categorized as current, past, or never. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality outcomes, adjusted for potential confounders. During a median follow-up of 11.8 years, 20 381 deaths occurred, including 4024 cardiovascular deaths. Current smokers had substantially increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR 2.37 [2.25–2.50] in males; HR 2.65 [2.47–2.84] in females), cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.58 [2.31–2.87] in males; HR 3.79 [3.17–4.54] in females), and cancer mortality (HR 2.47 [2.30–2.66] in males; HR 2.46 [2.25–2.69] in females) compared with never-smokers. Past smokers also exhibited elevated risks, and a clear dose–response relationship was observed with increasing smoking intensity and pack-years. Overall survival was higher in females, but the relative risks associated with smoking were largely comparable across sexes. Tobacco smoking is strongly associated with increased mortality risk, showing a clear dose–response relationship and long-term adverse effects even after cessation. The detrimental impact of smoking was broadly similar in males and females, with only minor differences. These findings reinforce the urgent need for universal prevention and cessation strategies to reduce the burden of smoking-related disease.

Background Tobacco industry activities and reduced smoking prevalence can foster under-appreciation of risks and under-investment in tobacco control. Reliable evidence on contemporary smoking impacts, including cause-specific mortality and attributable deaths, remains critical. Methods Prospective study of 178,169 cancer- and cardiovascular-disease-free individuals aged ≥ 45 years joining the 45 and Up Study in 2005–2009, with linked questionnaire, hospitalisation, cancer registry and death data to November 2017. Cause-specific mortality hazard ratios (HR) by smoking status, intensity and recency were estimated, adjusted for potential confounding factors. Population attributable fractions were estimated. Results There were 13,608 deaths during 9.3 years median follow-up (1.68 M person-years); at baseline, 7.9% of participants currently and 33.6% formerly smoked. Mortality was elevated with current versus never smoking for virtually all causes, including chronic lung disease (HR = 36.32, 95%CI = 26.18–50.40), lung cancer (17.85, 14.38–22.17) and oro-pharyngeal cancers (7.86, 4.11–15.02); lower respiratory infection, peripheral vascular disease, oesophageal cancer, liver cancer and cancer of unknown primary (risk 3–5 times as high); and coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and cancers of urinary tract, pancreas, kidney, stomach and prostate (risk at least two-fold); former versus never-smoking demonstrated similar patterns with attenuated risks. Mortality increased with smoking intensity, remaining appreciable for 1–14 cigarettes/day (e.g. lung cancer HR = 13.00, 95%CI = 9.50–17.80). Excess smoking-related mortality was largely avoided with cessation aged < 45 years. In 2019, 24,285 deaths (one-in-every-six deaths, 15.3%), among Australians aged ≥ 45 years, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Conclusions Smoking continues to cause a substantial proportion of deaths in low-prevalence settings, including Australia, highlighting the importance of accelerated tobacco control.

The present study aims to estimate the prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity among women aged 15-49 years in India. Additionally, the population attributable risk for multi-morbidity in reference to those women who smoke tobacco, chew tobacco, and consume alcohol is estimated. The data was derived from the National Family Health Survey which was conducted in 2015-16. The effective sample size for the present paper 699,686 women aged 15-49 years in India. Descriptive statistics along with bivariate analysis were used to do the preliminary analysis. Additionally, binary logistic regression analysis was used to fulfil the objectives. About 1.6% of women had multimorbidity in India. The prevalence of multimorbidity was high among women from southern region of India. Women who smoke tobacco, chew tobacco and consume alcohol had 87% [AOR: 1.87CI: 1.65, 2.10], 18% [AOR: 1.18; CI: 1.10, 1.26] and 18% [AOR: 1.18; CI: 1.04, 1.33] significantly higher likelihood to suffer from multi-morbidity than their counterparts respectively. Population Attributable Risk for women who smoke tobacco was 1.2% (p<0.001), chew tobacco was 0.2% (p<0.001) and it was 0.2% (p<0.001) among women who consumed alcohol. The findings indicate the important role of lifestyle and behavioural factors such as smoking and chewing tobacco and consuming alcohol in the prevalence of multimorbidity among adult Indian women. The subgroups identified as at increased risk in the present study can be targeted while making policies and health decisions and appropriate comorbidity management can be implemented.

Abstract Introduction The purpose of this study was to explore the association of smoking status and clinically relevant duration of smoking cessation with long-term survival after lung cancer (LC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis. We compared survival of patients with LC and CRC who were never-smokers, long-term, medium-term, and short-term quitters, and current smokers around diagnosis. Methods We studied 5575 patients in Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS), a national, prospective observational cohort study, who provided smoking status information approximately 5 months after LC or CRC diagnosis. Smoking status was categorized as: never-smoker, quit >5 years prior to diagnosis, quit between 1–5 years prior to diagnosis, quit less than 1 year before diagnosis, and current smoker. We examined the relationship between smoking status around diagnosis with mortality using Cox regression models. Results Among participants with LC, never-smokers had lower mortality risk compared with current smokers (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.89). Among participants with CRC, never-smokers had a lower mortality risk as compared to current smokers (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.99). Conclusions Among both LC and CRC patients, current smokers at diagnosis have higher mortality than never-smokers. This effect should be further studied in the context of tumor biology. However, smoking cessation around the time of diagnosis did not affect survival in this sample. Implications The results from our analysis of patients in the CanCORS consortium, a large, geographically diverse cohort, show that both LC and CRC patients who were actively smoking at diagnosis have worse survival as compared to never-smokers. While current smoking is detrimental to survival, cessation upon diagnosis may not mitigate this risk.

Smoking is associated with incident heart failure (HF), yet limited data are available exploring the association between smoking status and long-term outcomes in HF with reduced vs. preserved ejection fraction (i.e., HFrEF vs. HFpEF). We performed a retrospective analysis of HF patients undergoing coronary angiography from 1990–2010. Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and HF were stratified by EF (< 50% vs. ≥50%), smoking status (prior/current vs. never smoker), and level of smoking (light/moderate vs. heavy). Time-from-catheterization-to-event was examined using Cox proportional hazard modeling for all-cause mortality (ACM), ACM/myocardial infarction/stroke (MACE), and ACM/HF hospitalization with testing for interaction by HF-type (HFrEF vs. HFpEF). Of 14,406 patients with CAD and HF, 85% (n = 12,326) had HFrEF and 15% (n = 2080) had HFpEF. At catheterization, 61% of HFrEF and 57% of HFpEF patients had a smoking history. After adjustment, there was a significant interaction between HF-type and the association between smoking status and MACE (interaction P = .009). Smoking history was associated with increased risk for MACE in patients with HFrEF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.18 [1.12–1.24]), but not HFpEF (HR 1.01 [0.90–1.12]). Active smokers had increased mortality following adjustment compared to former smokers regardless of HF-type (HFrEF HR 1.19 [1.06–1.32], HFpEF HR 1.30 [1.02–1.64], interaction P = .50). Heavy smokers trended towards increased risk of adverse outcomes versus light/moderate smokers; these findings were consistent across HF-type (interaction P > .12). Smoking history was independently associated with worse outcomes in HFrEF but not HFpEF. Regardless of HF-type, current smokers had higher risk than former smokers.

Background Little is known about mortality from four disorder combinations: fully attributable to alcohol or tobacco, partly attributable to both alcohol and tobacco, to tobacco only, to alcohol only. Aim To analyze whether residents who had disclosed risky alcohol drinking or daily tobacco smoking had a shorter time to death than non-risky drinkers and never daily smokers twenty years later according to the disorder combinations. Methods A random adult general population sample (4,075 study participants) of a northern German area had been interviewed in the years 1996–1997. Vital status and death certificate data were gathered 2017–2018. The data analysis included estimates of alcohol- or tobacco-attributable mortality using all conditions given in the death certificate and alternatively the underlying cause of death only. Results Among 573 deaths, 71.9–94.1% had any alcohol- or tobacco-attributable disorder depending on the estimate. Risky alcohol consumption and daily tobacco smoking at baseline were related to disorders in the death certificate according to the combinations. Deaths with an alcohol- and tobacco-attributable disorder were related to risky alcohol consumption (subhazard ratio 1.57; 95% confidence interval 1.25–1.98) and to daily tobacco smoking at baseline (subhazard ratio 1.85; 95% confidence interval 1.42–2.41). Conclusion First, more than 70% of the deceased persons had one or more alcohol- or tobacco-attributable disorders. This finding suggests that total mortality seems to be the suitable outcome if potential effects of alcohol or tobacco consumption in a general population are to be estimated. Second, the relations of risky alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking with time to death speak in favor of the validity of alcohol- and of tobacco-attributable disorders in death certificates and of considering both alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking if attributable deaths are to be estimated.

Abstract Introduction The smoking epidemic greatly affected mortality levels and trends, especially among men in low-mortality countries. The objective of this article was to examine similarities and differences between sexes and low-mortality countries in the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic. This will provide important additions to the smoking epidemic model, but also improve our understanding of the differential impact of the smoking epidemic, and provide insights into its future impact. Methods Using lung-cancer mortality data for 30 European and four North American or Australasian countries, smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) by sex, age (35–99), and year (1950–2014) were indirectly estimated. The timing and level of the peak in SAMF35-99, estimated using weighting and smoothing, were compared. Results Among men in all countries except Bulgaria, a clear wave pattern was observed, with SAMF35-99 peaking, on average, at 33.4% in 1986. Eastern European men experienced the highest (40%) and Swedish men the lowest (16%) peak. Among women, SAMF35-99 peaked, on average, at 18.1% in 2007 in the North American/Australasian countries and five Northwestern European countries, and increased, on average, to 7.5% in 2014 in the remaining countries (4% in Southern and Eastern Europe). The average sex difference in the peak is at least 25.6 years in its timing and at most 22.9 percentage points in its level. Conclusions Although the progression of smoking-attributable mortality in low-mortality countries was similar, there are important unexpected sex and country differences in the maximum mortality impact of the smoking epidemic driven by cross-country differences in economic, political, and emancipatory progress. Implications The formal, systematic, and comprehensive analysis of similarities and differences between sexes and 34 low-mortality countries in long-term time trends (1950–2014) in smoking-attributable mortality provided important additions to the Global Burden of Disease study and the descriptive smoking epidemic model (Lopez et al.). Despite a general increase followed by a decline, the timing of the maximum mortality impact differs more between sexes than previously anticipated, but less between regions. The maximum mortality impact among men differs considerably between countries. The observed substantial diversity warrants country-specific tobacco control interventions and increased attention to the current or expected higher smoking-attributable mortality shares among women compared to men.

Abstract Background The estimated prevalence of smoking and proportion of deaths due to tobacco in Eastern European countries are among the highest in the world. Existing estimates of mortality attributable to smoking in the region are mostly indirect. The aim of this analysis was to calculate the proportion of tobacco-attributed deaths in three Eastern European countries using individual level cohort data. Methods The PrivMort project established a cohort of relatives of participants in population sample surveys in Russia, Belarus and Hungary. Survey participants provided data on smoking habits and vital statistics of their close relatives between 1982 and 2013. Population attributable risk fractions (PARF) in men (n = 99528) and women (n = 77848) aged 40–79 years were calculated from the prevalence rates of smoking and hazard ratios of mortality for smokers versus non-smokers. Trends in PARF over four 8-year time periods (1982–1989, 1990–1997, 1998–2005, and 2006–2013) were examined. Results In men in the most recent period (2006–2013), the proportions of deaths attributable to tobacco were 23% in Russia, 22% in Belarus, and 22% in Hungary. The respective estimates in women were lower (2%, 2%, and 13%), possibly due to underestimation of smoking prevalence. PARF estimates have declined slightly since the early 1990s in men but increased in women. Conclusions Consistently with existing indirect estimates, our results based on individual level cohort data suggest that over one fifth of all deaths in men aged 40–79 years are attributable to tobacco. While these proportions are lower in women, the increasing trend is a major concern. Implications This is the first large scale, individual-level cohort study that estimated the mortality attributable to tobacco smoking directly in Eastern European population samples. The results confirm previous indirect estimates and show that more than 20% of all deaths in Eastern European men can be attributed to tobacco. The study also confirms the increasing trend in smoking-related deaths among women. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted policy interventions in Eastern European countries.

We aimed to determine mortality risk in underweight patients with diabetic nephropathy for microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria. We analyzed mortality and death‐cause data from BioBank Japan, with baseline years 2003–2007. We analyzed mortality rates from all causes and ischemic heart disease, according to body mass index (<18.5, 18.5–21.9, 22–24.9 and ≥25 kg/m2). The mean (standard deviation) of patient age, body mass index, and glycated hemoglobin at enrollment was 61.6 years (11.7 years), 25.0 kg/m2 (4.4 kg/m2) and 7.7% (1.5%), respectively. Hazard ratios of all‐cause and ischemic heart disease mortality were highest (1.79 [P = 0.0001] and 2.95 [P = 0.027], respectively) in patients with body mass index <18.5 kg/m2, as compared with body mass index 22–24.9 kg/m2. All‐cause mortality risk for body mass index <18.5 kg/m2 was similar to that for current smokers (hazard ratio 1.70, P < 0.0001). Underweight could be a predictor of mortality risk in patients with diabetic nephropathy for microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria. Comparison of mortality by body mass index categories among Japanese patients with diabetic nephropathy for microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria. Body mass index for <18.5 kg/m2 had the highest, and body mass index for 18.5–21.9 kg/m2 had the second highest mortality.