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1. Floodplain vegetation states (communities) exhibit spatiotemporal dynamics in vegetation structure and composition, which reflect unique hydrological and connectivity patterns. Shifts in inundation regimes can drive succession and establish new stable states, determined by the magnitude and duration of the hydrological perturbation. 2. We aimed to develop a modelling approach that is able to capture ecosystem dynamics, identify and quantify the main drivers of change, and provide a tool for conservation decision-making. We developed state and transition models for floodplain vegetation states based on surveys in 1991 and 2008 in the Macquarie Marshes (Australia), a Ramsar wetland of international importance. We used a Bayesian logistic regression approach to model state and transitions between vegetation states and investigated how flood frequency, distance to stream and fire frequency were associated with vegetation dynamics during this period. 3. During 1991-2008, significant transitions have occurred towards drier states. Semi-permanent wetland vegetation had the lowest persistence probability (ppsis = 0·456) and a significant threshold response of transitioning to terrestrial vegetation (ptran = 0·505). Transition to drier states was driven by lower inundation probabilities followed by increased fire probability, and distance to nearest stream. 4. Using developed models, we predicted persistence probabilities of vegetation states under an unregulated (i.e. no dams or diversions) and regulated water availability system. Under a regulated system, semi-permanent wetland vegetation had an average persistence of ppsis = 0.67 and 0·08 in the northern and southern sections of the nature reserve, respectively. Under an unregulated system, the predicted persistence of semi-permanent wetland vegetation was considerably higher: ppsis = 0·87 and 0·38, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Developing quantitative models of state transitions significantly improved our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, identifying sensitive indicators for monitoring and thus supporting conservation decision-making. This helps managers understand potential trajectories of change in ecosystems in response to management options. For example, increasing environmental flows in the Macquarie Marshes is predicted to shift the community towards more of a wetland than the terrestrial state, resulting from river regulation. State and transition models identified how key ecological assets respond to drivers of change, particularly where these can be managed. This is critical for ensuring that all ecosystem components are managed and that these do not shift into undesirable states.

1. Well-designed marine protected area (MPA) networks can deliver a range of ecological, economic and social benefits, and so a great deal of research has focused on developing spatial conservation prioritization tools to help identify important areas. 2. However, whilst these software tools are designed to identify MPA networks that both represent biodiversity and minimize impacts on stakeholders, they do not consider complex ecological processes. Thus, it is difficult to determine the impacts that proposed MPAs could have on marine ecosystem health, fisheries and fisheries sustainability. 3. Using the eastern English Channel as a case study, this paper explores an approach to address these issues by identifying a series of MPA networks using the Marxan and Marxan with Zones conservation planning software and linking them with a spatially explicit ecosystem model developed in Ecopath with Ecosim. We then use these to investigate potential trade-offs associated with adopting different MPA management strategies. 4. Limited-take MPAs, which restrict the use of some fishing gears, could have positive benefits for conservation and fisheries in the eastern English Channel, even though they generally receive far less attention in research on MPA network design. 5. Our findings, however, also clearly indicate that no-take MPAs should form an integral component of proposed MPA networks in the eastern English Channel, as they not only result in substantial increases in ecosystem biomass, fisheries catches and the biomass of commercially valuable target species, but are fundamental to maintaining the sustainability of the fisheries. 6. Synthesis and applications. Using the existing software tools Marxan with Zones and Ecopath with Ecosim in combination provides a powerful policy-screening approach. This could help inform marine spatial planning by identifying potential conflicts and by designing new regulations that better balance conservation objectives and stakeholder interests. In addition, it highlights that appropriate combinations of no-take and limited-take marine protected areas might be the most effective when making trade-offs between long-term ecological benefits and short-term political acceptability.

Summary Natural capital is essential for goods and services on which people depend. Yet pressures on the environment mean that natural capital assets are continuing to decline and degrade, putting such benefits at risk. Systematic monitoring of natural assets is a major challenge that could be both unaffordable and unmanageable without a way to focus efforts. Here we introduce a simple approach, based on the commonly used management tool of a risk register, to highlight natural assets whose condition places benefits at risk. We undertake a preliminary assessment using a risk register for natural capital assets in the UK based solely on existing information. The status and trends of natural capital assets are assessed using asset–benefit relationships for ten kinds of benefits (food, fibre (timber), energy, aesthetics, freshwater (quality), recreation, clean air, wildlife, hazard protection and equable climate) across eight broad habitat types in the UK based on three dimensions of natural capital within each of the habitat types (quality, quantity and spatial configuration). We estimate the status and trends of benefits relative to societal targets using existing regulatory limits and policy commitments, and allocate scores of high, medium or low risk to asset–benefit relationships that are both subject to management and of concern. The risk register approach reveals substantial gaps in knowledge about asset–benefit relationships which limit the scope and rigour of the assessment (especially for marine and urban habitats). Nevertheless, we find strong indications that certain assets (in freshwater, mountain, moors and heathland habitats) are at high risk in relation to their ability to sustain certain benefits (especially freshwater, wildlife and climate regulation). Synthesis and applications. With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset–benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the natural capital risk register could provide a useful tool. If updated regularly, it could direct monitoring efforts, focus research and protect and manage those natural assets where benefits are at highest risk. With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset–benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the natural capital risk register could provide a useful tool. If updated regularly, it could direct monitoring efforts, focus research and protect and manage those natural assets where benefits are at highest risk.

Due to their intercellular communication properties and involvement in a wide range of biological processes, extracellular vesicles (EVs) are increasingly being studied and exploited for different applications. Nevertheless, their complex nature and heterogeneity, as well as the challenges related to their purification and characterization procedures, require a cautious assessment of the qualitative and quantitative parameters that need to be monitored. This translates into a multitude of choices and putative solutions that any EV researcher must confront in both research and translational environments. In this respect, decision‐making tools may help assess various options, weigh pros and cons, and ultimately arrive at a thought‐out decision that considers both the best fit‐to‐source and fit‐to‐scope EV application(s). Here, we present a multi‐criteria EV decision‐making grid (EV‐DMG) as a novel, efficient, customizable, and easy‐to‐use tool to support EV research and innovation. By identifying and weighing key assessment criteria for comparing distinct EV‐based preparations and related processes, our EV‐DMG may assist any EV community member in making informed, traceable, and reproducible decisions regarding the management of EV sources or samples. Ultimately, this EV‐DMG may guide the adoption of the most suitable EV production and analytical pipelines for targeting a defined aim or application.

Nutrient pollution, originated from agricultural or household activities, is one of the main issues our modern world has to deal with. Due to the specific aspects this type of pollution implies - the uncertain nature of pollution source, the relative continuous character of the pollution process, the complex environment system implied, these issues are difficult to manage and presume an integrated approach and a strategic perspective. The effects generated by this type of pollution are often very serious, having a transborders character. The situation requires an integrated control of nutrients' pollution, that has been initiated by the project \"Public awareness campaign at river basin level - 01/FBS/2011\", having the main objectives: (i) to reduce the amounts of nutrients discharged in water bodies; (ii) to promote the behavior changes at regional level; (iii) to support the consolidation of the legal framework, and to strengthen the institutional capacity for enforcement. The present study is an assessment of the access of rural population living in nitrates vulnerable areas, to good quality sources for drinking water, considering the current agricultural and sanitation practices; it overlaps several layers of geographic information, to populate a GIS data base, to be used as a tool for the decision making process at local level.

To develop a parsimonious risk prediction model for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) within 90 days after total hip arthroplasty (THA). We used logistic LASSO regression with bootstrap ranking to develop a risk prediction model for PJI within 90 days based on a Swedish cohort of 88,830 patients with elective THA 2008-2015. The model was externally validated on a Danish cohort with 18,854 patients. Incidence of PJI was 2.45% in Sweden and 2.17% in Denmark. A model with the underlying diagnosis for THA, body mass index (BMI), American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, sex, age, and the presence of five defined comorbidities had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66 to 0.69) in Sweden and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64 to 0.69) in Denmark. This was superior to traditional models based on ASA class, Charlson, Elixhauser, or the Rx Risk V comorbidity indices. Internal calibration was good for predicted probabilities up to 10%. A new PJI prediction model based on easily accessible data available before THA was developed and externally validated. The model had superior discriminatory ability compared to ASA class alone or more complex comorbidity indices and had good calibration. We provide a web-based calculator (https://erikbulow.shinyapps.io/thamortpred/) to facilitate shared decision making by patients and surgeons.

To sustain growth, maintain competitive advantage and to innovate, companies must make a paradigm shift in which both short- and long-term value aspects are employed to guide their decision-making. Such need is clearly pressing in innovative industries, such as ICT, and is also the core of Value-based Software Engineering (VBSE). The goal of this paper is to detail a framework called VALUE—improving decision-making relating to software-intensive products and services development—and to show its application in practice to a large ICT company in Finland. The VALUE framework includes a mixed-methods approach, as follows: to elicit key stakeholders’ tacit knowledge regarding factors used during a decision-making process, either transcripts from interviews with key stakeholders are analysed and validated in focus group meetings or focus-group meeting(s) are directly applied. These value factors are later used as input to a Web-based tool (Value tool) employed to support decision making. This tool was co-created with four industrial partners in this research via a design science approach that includes several case studies and focus-group meetings. Later, data on key stakeholders’ decisions gathered using the Value tool, plus additional input from key stakeholders, are used, in combination with the Expert-based Knowledge Engineering of Bayesian Network (EKEBN) process, coupled with the weighed sum algorithm (WSA) method, to build and validate a company-specific value estimation model. The application of our proposed framework to a real case, as part of an ongoing collaboration with a large software company (company A), is presented herein. Further, we also provide a detailed example, partially using real data on decisions, of a value estimation Bayesian network (BN) model for company A. This paper presents some empirical results from applying the VALUE Framework to a large ICT company; those relate to eliciting key stakeholders’ tacit knowledge, which is later used as input to a pilot study where these stakeholders employ the Value tool to select features for one of their company’s chief products. The data on decisions obtained from this pilot study is later applied to a detailed example on building a value estimation BN model for company A. We detail a framework—VALUE framework—to be used to help companies improve their value-based decisions and to go a step further and also estimate the overall value of each decision.

Societal Impact Statement Modern food systems push agriculture to focus on a small number of commercial crops, while there is a very large diversity of untapped edible plants that could be used to address food security and nutrition. Poor and monotonous diets are closely linked to the complex burden of multiple forms of malnutrition and dietary risk. In some contexts, such as West Africa, micronutrient deficiency risks are particularly pronounced. Hence, there is an urgent need to provide people with healthy diets supported by sustainable food systems. Within this context, using nutrition‐sensitive forest landscape restoration to combat environmental degradation could contribute towards ensuring the year‐round availability of nutritious tree‐based food. Summary Diverse diets are important to deliver adequate amounts of the nutrients essential to human health. The consumption of a diversity of food groups is challenging in sub‐Saharan Africa. Trees play an important role in the direct provision of nutritious food items. Forest landscape restoration presents an opportunity to reverse the loss of useful trees, due to degradation, and increase representation of food tree species in the landscape. Here we focused on characterizing the contributions that different food products from trees can make to improving diet diversity in Burkina Faso. A scoring system was developed, based on seasonal availability of edible products and food groups covered, and was integrated into a freely available decision‐making tool that enables carrying out context‐specific, optimal choices of tree species to be considered in forest landscape restoration. Our inventory included 56 food tree species, largely Fabaceae (18 species), providing 81 edible products, mainly fruits (supplied by 79% of tree species), followed by seeds (52%) and leaves (41%). The main food groups represented are ‘Other fruits’ (other than vitamin A‐rich fruits) (covering 52% of the edible products) and dark‐green leafy vegetables (29%). About two thirds of the species listed produce more than a single edible product, a few up to four. A total of 11 species supplied edible products throughout the year. Our results clearly show that seasonal scarcity of food and nutrients in Burkina Faso can be partly mitigated by consuming edible tree products. The methodology can be easily scaled to other geographies. Les systèmes alimentaires modernes se fondent sur un nombre très limité de cultures commerciales, alors qu'une très grande diversité de plantes comestibles inexploitées pourrait assurer la sécurité alimentaire et la nutrition. Les régimes alimentaires appauvris et peu diversifiés sont étroitement liés aux multiples formes de malnutrition et aux risques alimentaires. Dans certains contextes, comme en Afrique de l'Ouest, les défaillances en micronutriments sont particulièrement prononcées. Par conséquent, il urge de développer des régimes alimentaires sains, soutenus par des systèmes alimentaires durables. Dans ce contexte, la restauration des paysages forestiers pour lutter contre la dégradation de l'environnement qui s'inscrit dans une approche sensible à la nutrition pourrait contribuer à assurer la disponibilité tout au long de l'année d'aliments nutritifs dérivés des arbres. Modern food systems push agriculture to focus on a small number of commercial crops, while there is a very large diversity of untapped edible plants that could be used to address food security and nutrition. Poor and monotonous diets are closely linked to the complex burden of multiple forms of malnutrition and dietary risk. In some contexts, such as West Africa, micronutrient deficiency risks are particularly pronounced. Hence, there is an urgent need to provide people with healthy diets supported by sustainable food systems. Within this context, using nutrition‐sensitive forest landscape restoration to combat environmental degradation could contribute towards ensuring the year‐round availability of nutritious tree‐based food.

Adaptive management is an iterative process of gathering new knowledge regarding a system's behavior and monitoring the ecological consequences of management actions to improve management decisions. Although the concept originated in the 1970s, it is rarely actively incorporated into ecological restoration. Bayesian networks (BNs) are emerging as efficient ecological decision-support tools well suited to adaptive management, but examples of their application in this capacity are few. We developed a BN within an adaptive-management framework that focuses on managing the effects of feral grazing and prescribed burning regimes on avian diversity within woodlands of subtropical eastern Australia. We constructed the BN with baseline data to predict bird abundance as a function of habitat structure, grazing pressure, and prescribed burning. Results of sensitivity analyses suggested that grazing pressure increased the abundance of aggressive honeyeaters, which in turn had a strong negative effect on small passerines. Management interventions to reduce pressure of feral grazing and prescribed burning were then conducted, after which we collected a second set of field data to test the response of small passerines to these measures. We used these data, which incorporated ecological changes that may have resulted from the management interventions, to validate and update the BN. The network predictions of small passerine abundance under the new habitat and management conditions were very accurate. The updated BN concluded the first iteration of adaptive management and will be used in planning the next round of management interventions. The unique belief-updating feature of BNs provides land managers with the flexibility to predict outcomes and evaluate the effectiveness of management interventions.

The objective of the study was to develop and test feasibility of a framework of patient-important practical issues. Guidelines and shared decision-making tools help facilitate discussions about patient-important outcomes of care alternatives, but typically ignore practical issues patients consider when implementing care into their daily routines. Using grounded theory, practical issues in the HealthTalk.org registry and in Option Grids were identified and categorized into a framework. We integrated the framework into the MAGIC authoring and publication platform and digitally structured authoring and publication platform and appraised its use in The BMJ Rapid Recommendations. The framework included the following 15 categories: medication routine, tests and visits, procedure and device, recovery and adaptation, coordination of care, adverse effects, interactions and antidote, physical well-being, emotional well-being, pregnancy and nursing, costs and access, food and drinks, exercise and activities, social life and relationships, work and education, travel and driving. Implementation in 15 BMJ Rapid Recommendations added 283 issues to 35 recommendations. The most frequently used category was procedure and device, and the least frequent was social life and relationship. Adding practical issues systematically to evidence summaries is feasible and can inform guidelines and tools for shared decision-making. How this inclusion can improve patient-centered care remains to be determined. •Practical issues are central in health care decision-making but are often ignored.•We developed a practical issues framework to to support clinical decision-making.•Applying this framework to 35 recommendations identified 283 practical issues.