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"Trade Models"
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New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?
Micro-level data have had a profound influence on research in international trade over the last ten years. In many regards, this research agenda has been very successful New stylized facts have been uncovered and new trade models have been developed to explain these facts. In this paper we investigate to what extent answers to new micro-level questions have affected answers to an old and central question in the field: how large are the welfare gains from trade? A crude summary of our results is: \"So far, not much.\"
Journal Article
Advanced international trade : theory and evidence
The intention of this text is to bring readers up to date with knowledge in international trade and prepare them to undertake their own research. Robert Feenstra covers all the basic material including the Ricardian and Hecksher-Ohlin models.
BOOK
New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications
We show that endogenous firm selection provides a new welfare margin for heterogeneous firm models of trade (relative to homogeneous firm models). Under some parameter restrictions, the trade elasticity is constant and is a sufficient statistic for welfare, along with the domestic trade share. However, even small deviations from these restrictions imply that trade elasticities are variable and differ across markets and levels of trade costs. In this more general setting, the domestic trade share and endogenous trade elasticity are no longer sufficient statistics for welfare. Additional empirically observable moments of the micro structure also matter for welfare.
Journal Article
Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA
We build into a Ricardian model sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity in production to quantify the trade and welfare effects from tariff changes. We also propose a new method to estimate sectoral trade elasticities consistent with any trade model that delivers a multiplicative gravity equation. We apply our model and use our estimated elasticities to identify the impact of NAFTA's tariff reductions. We find that Mexico's welfare increases by 1.31%, U.S.'s welfare increases by 0.08%, and Canada's welfare declines by 0.06%. We find that intra-bloc trade increases by 118% for Mexico, 11% for Canada, and 41% for the U. S. We show that welfare effects from tariff reductions are reduced when the structure of production does not take into account intermediate goods or input-output linkages. Our results highlight the importance of sectoral heterogeneity, intermediate goods, and sectoral linkages for the quantification of the welfare gains from tariffs reductions.
Journal Article
Understanding data analytics and predictive modelling in the oil and gas industry
Covers aspects of data science and predictive analytics used in oil and gas industry by looking into the challenges of data processing and data modelling unique to this industry. It includes upstream management, intelligent/digital well, value chain integration, crude basket forecasting and so forth.
BOOK
Grounded by Gravity
We propose a model to study the role of industry-level external economies of scale in open economies. If the elasticity governing the strength of external economies is below the inverse of the trade elasticity in each industry, then specialization under frictionless trade is consistent with comparative advantage, the model is tractable even with trade frictions, and all countries gain from trade. External economies lower gains from trade except if the country specializes in industries with high scale economies, and they amplify the gains from further trade liberalization except if it leads to specialization in industries with low scale economies.
Journal Article
Real Effects of Information Frictions
This paper exploits a unique historical experiment to estimate how information frictions distort international trade: the establishment of the transatlantic telegraph in 1866. I use newly collected data on cotton prices, trade, and information flows from historical newspapers and find that the average and volatility of the transatlantic price difference fell after the telegraph, while average trade flows increased and became more volatile. Using a trade model in which exporters use the latest news about a foreign market to forecast expected prices, I estimate the efficiency gains of the telegraph to be equivalent to 8 percent of export value.
Journal Article