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"Trade models"
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Understanding data analytics and predictive modelling in the oil and gas industry
Covers aspects of data science and predictive analytics used in oil and gas industry by looking into the challenges of data processing and data modelling unique to this industry. It includes upstream management, intelligent/digital well, value chain integration, crude basket forecasting and so forth.
BOOK
New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?
Micro-level data have had a profound influence on research in international trade over the last ten years. In many regards, this research agenda has been very successful New stylized facts have been uncovered and new trade models have been developed to explain these facts. In this paper we investigate to what extent answers to new micro-level questions have affected answers to an old and central question in the field: how large are the welfare gains from trade? A crude summary of our results is: \"So far, not much.\"
Journal Article
New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications
We show that endogenous firm selection provides a new welfare margin for heterogeneous firm models of trade (relative to homogeneous firm models). Under some parameter restrictions, the trade elasticity is constant and is a sufficient statistic for welfare, along with the domestic trade share. However, even small deviations from these restrictions imply that trade elasticities are variable and differ across markets and levels of trade costs. In this more general setting, the domestic trade share and endogenous trade elasticity are no longer sufficient statistics for welfare. Additional empirically observable moments of the micro structure also matter for welfare.
Journal Article
Economic reforms in SAARC countries : impact of LPG on development indicators
\"This book presents a cross country comparison of development Indicators in the SAARC Countries with respect to the recent pre - and post- Liberalization, Privatization and globalization (LPG) era. In presenting the empirical analysis using econometric methods the present book brings in the theoretical background relating to the growth of public expenditure as articulated by Adolf Wagner and other researchers in the nineteenth and early twentieth century along with the Displacement Effect Hypothesis as advanced by Peacock and Wiseman in the mid twentieth century. It provides a critical analysis of the theories and views of the researchers on Wagner's law and the subsequent P-W hypothesis. It articulates and re-examines these with respect to the changes in the economic policies and comes up with reinterpretation of the impact using time series analysis. It empirically examines the changes in the structure of the estimated equation by using dummy variables. The study has tried to quantify the impact of the policy changes and has articulated the appropriateness of the use of dummy variable\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA
We build into a Ricardian model sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity in production to quantify the trade and welfare effects from tariff changes. We also propose a new method to estimate sectoral trade elasticities consistent with any trade model that delivers a multiplicative gravity equation. We apply our model and use our estimated elasticities to identify the impact of NAFTA's tariff reductions. We find that Mexico's welfare increases by 1.31%, U.S.'s welfare increases by 0.08%, and Canada's welfare declines by 0.06%. We find that intra-bloc trade increases by 118% for Mexico, 11% for Canada, and 41% for the U. S. We show that welfare effects from tariff reductions are reduced when the structure of production does not take into account intermediate goods or input-output linkages. Our results highlight the importance of sectoral heterogeneity, intermediate goods, and sectoral linkages for the quantification of the welfare gains from tariffs reductions.
Journal Article
Fashion lives : Fashion Icons With Fern Mallis
\"No topic is off-limits to Fern Mallis, award-winning creator of the Fashion Week in New York, when she hosts 'Fashion Icons with Fern Mallis' at New York's ... 92nd Street Y, a series of ... interviews with the fashion industry's most talented, successful, and legendary personalities. Featuring nineteen ... interviews with American fashion luminaries, this ... book introduces readers to the real artists behind these very public figures\"--Front cover inside flap.
Book
Grounded by Gravity
We propose a model to study the role of industry-level external economies of scale in open economies. If the elasticity governing the strength of external economies is below the inverse of the trade elasticity in each industry, then specialization under frictionless trade is consistent with comparative advantage, the model is tractable even with trade frictions, and all countries gain from trade. External economies lower gains from trade except if the country specializes in industries with high scale economies, and they amplify the gains from further trade liberalization except if it leads to specialization in industries with low scale economies.
Journal Article
Real Effects of Information Frictions
This paper exploits a unique historical experiment to estimate how information frictions distort international trade: the establishment of the transatlantic telegraph in 1866. I use newly collected data on cotton prices, trade, and information flows from historical newspapers and find that the average and volatility of the transatlantic price difference fell after the telegraph, while average trade flows increased and became more volatile. Using a trade model in which exporters use the latest news about a foreign market to forecast expected prices, I estimate the efficiency gains of the telegraph to be equivalent to 8 percent of export value.
Journal Article
Nonhomotheticity and Bilateral Trade: Evidence and a Quantitative Explanation
The standard gravity model predicts that trade flows increase in proportion to importer and exporter total income, regardless of how income is divided into income per capita and population. Bilateral trade data, however, show that trade grows strongly with income per capita and is largely unresponsive to population. I develop a general equilibrium Ricardian model of trade that allows the elasticity of trade with respect to income per capita and with respect to population to diverge. Goods are of various types, which differ in their income elasticity of demand and in the extent to which there is heterogeneity in their production technologies. I estimate the model using bilateral trade data of 162 countries and compare it to a special case that delivers the gravity equation. The general model improves the restricted model's predictions regarding variations in trade due to size and income. I experiment with counterfactuals. A positive technology shock in China makes poor and rich countries better off and middle-income countries worse off.
Journal Article