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72 result(s) for "Transit timing variation method"
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TESS Transit Timing of Hundreds of Hot Jupiters
We provide a database of transit times and updated ephemerides for 382 planets based on data from the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and previously reported transit times, which were scraped from the literature in a semiautomated fashion. In total, our database contains 8667 transit-timing measurements for 382 systems. About 240 planets in the catalog are hot Jupiters (i.e., planets with mass >0.3 M Jup and period <10 days) that have been observed by TESS. The new ephemerides are useful for scheduling follow-up observations and searching for long-term period changes. WASP-12 remains the only system for which a period change is securely detected. We remark on other cases of interest, such as a few systems with suggestive (but not yet convincing) evidence for period changes, and the detection of a second transiting planet in the NGTS-11 system. The compilation of light curves, transit times, ephemerides, and timing residuals are made available online, along with the Python code that generated them (visit https://transit-timing.github.io).
Long-term Variations in the Orbital Period of Hot Jupiters from Transit-timing Analysis Using TESS Survey Data
Many hot Jupiters may experience orbital decays, which are manifested as long-term transit-timing variations. We have analyzed 7068 transits from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) for a sample of 326 hot Jupiters. These new mid-transit-time data allow us to update ephemerides for these systems. By combining the new TESS transit-timing data with archival data, we searched for possible long-term variations in the orbital period in these hot Jupiters using a linear and a quadratic ephemeris model. We identified 26 candidates that exhibit possible long-term variations of the orbital period, including 18 candidates with decreasing orbital periods and eight candidates with increasing orbital periods. Among them, 12 candidates failed our leave-one-out cross validation test and thus should be considered to be marginal candidates. In addition to tidal interaction, alternative mechanisms such as apsidal precession, the Rømer effect, and the Applegate effect could also contribute to the variations during the observed period. The ephemerides derived in this work are useful for scheduling follow-up observations for these hot Jupiters in the future. The Python code (PdotQuest, https://github.com/AeoN400/PdotQuest) used to generate the ephemerides is made available online.
Flares, Rotation, and Planets of the AU Mic System from TESS Observations
AU Mic is a young (∼24 Myr), pre-main-sequence M dwarf star that was observed in the first month of science observations of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and reobserved 2 years later. This target has photometric variability from a variety of sources that is readily apparent in the TESS light curves; spots induce modulation in the light curve, flares are present throughout (manifesting as sharp rises with slow exponential decay phases), and transits of AU Mic b may be seen by eye as dips in the light curve. We present a combined analysis of both TESS Sector 1 and Sector 27 AU Mic light curves including the new 20 s cadence data from TESS Year 3. We compare flare rates between both observations and analyze the spot evolution, showing that the activity levels increase slightly from Sector 1 to Sector 27. Furthermore, the 20 s data collection allows us to detect more flares, smaller flares, and better resolve flare morphology in white light as compared to the 2 minute data collection mode. We also refine the parameters for AU Mic b by fitting three additional transits of AU Mic b from Sector 27 using a model that includes stellar activity. We show that the transits exhibit clear transit timing variations with an amplitude of ∼80 s. We also detect three transits of a 2.8 R ⊕ planet, AU Mic c, which has a period of 18.86 days.
Searching for Transit Timing Variations in Young Transiting Systems
The discovery of young (<800 Myr) transiting planets has provided a new avenue to explore how planets form and evolve over their lifetimes. Mass measurements for these planets would be invaluable, but radial velocity surveys of young systems are often overwhelmed by stellar activity. Transit timing variations (TTVs) offer an alternative route to measure masses that are less impacted by signals from the host star. Here we search for candidate TTVs in a sample of 39 young systems hosting 53 transiting planets using data from Kepler, K2, and TESS. We recover previously reported TTVs for 11 planets, including those in V1298 Tau, TOI-2076, Kepler-51, and TOI-1227, and identify new candidate TTVs for four planets (DS Tuc Ab, HD 63433 b, K2-101 b, and Kepler-1643 b). In total, 28.3% ± 6.2% of the young planets in our sample show evidence of TTVs, which is higher than the rate from Kepler on mostly older systems (7.3% ± 0.6%). Accounting for differences in data coverage and quality between Kepler and TESS only increases this difference (>4σ), although differences in methodology make a totally fair comparison challenging. We show that spots have a weak-to-negligible impact on our results, and similarly cannot explain the higher TTV fraction. Longer-term monitoring will be required to validate these TTVs as planetary in nature and confirm the high TTV rate. While the candidate TTV signals detected here are sparsely sampled, our work provides a clear priority list for additional ground-based observations, and for multiplanet TTVs, to measure the masses and eccentricities of these planets.
Transit Timing Variation of XO-3b: Evidence for Tidal Evolution of Hot Jupiter with High Eccentricity
Observed transit timing variation (TTV) potentially reveals the period decay caused by star-planet tidal interaction which can explain the orbital migration of hot Jupiters. We report the TTV of XO-3b, using TESS observed timings and archival timings. We generate a photometric pipeline to produce light curves from raw TESS images and find the difference between our pipeline and TESS PDC is negligible for timing analysis. TESS timing presents a shift of 17.6 minutes (80 σ ), earlier than the prediction from the previous ephemeris. The best linear fit for all timings available gives a Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) value of 439. A quadratic function is a better model with a BIC of 56. The period derivative obtained from a quadratic function is −6.2 × 10 −9 ± 2.9 × 10 −10 per orbit, indicating an orbital decay timescale 1.4 Myr. We find that the orbital period decay can be well explained by tidal interaction. The “modified tidal quality factor” Q p ′ would be 1.8 × 10 4 ± 8 × 10 2 if we assume the decay is due to the tide in the planet; whereas Q * ′ would be 1.5 × 10 5 ± 6 × 10 3 if tidal dissipation is predominantly in the star. The precession model is another possible origin to explain the observed TTVs. We note that the follow-up observations of occultation timing and radial velocity monitoring are needed for fully discriminating the different models.
Transit-timing Variations in TESS: A Catalog from the First 5 yr
We present the first catalog of transit-timing variations (TTVs) in Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) systems with multiple TESS objects of interest (TOIs) using data from Sector 1 to Sector 69, spanning the first 5 yr of mission operations. With an initial sample of 175 multi-TOI systems, we find significant TTVs in 20 systems, 13 of which had not been previously detected. Our results are generally consistent with the findings of previous Kepler Space Telescope (Kepler) TTV catalogs, with compact systems more likely to have detectable TTVs. However, the TTV systems in TESS exhibit a pileup at the 2:1 orbital period resonance, in contrast to the pileup near the 3:2 resonance from previous Kepler catalogs. This provides a tentative indicator that there may be different disk migration recipes that Kepler systems favor versus TESS systems. This catalog is a vital first step in determining which orbital resonances migrating planets tend to occupy at the end of formation, and aims to provide a list of high-impact targets for future in-depth follow-up.
The Illusory Precision of Transit Timing Variation Masses: Hidden Solutions Behind Kepler-9’s Tight Mass Ratio
Transit timing variations (TTVs) are considered a tool for constraining the masses of transiting planets in the absence of radial velocity data. Although theoretical studies have long revealed that TTV mass determinations intrinsically suffer from degeneracies, existing analyses of TTV data typically report a single-mode solution under a model with a specified number of planets. This is because fitting TTV curves in the high-dimensional solution space of the TTV posterior is extremely challenging; even locating a single solution requires substantial computational resources. We developed an efficient mode-first searching algorithm that can locate multiple solutions in a single MCMC run. We applied this algorithm to Kepler-9 b and c, which have the highest-quality TTV data. We found that the observed TTV can be reproduced by many combinations of planetary masses spanning a broad range, rather than the previously assumed precise determination. The mass of Kepler-9 b can range from 31.6 to 47.1 M⊕, while that of Kepler-9 c can range from 21.8 to 32.3 M⊕, and even more broadly under looser constraints. These degenerate solutions follow a linear relationship under a tight mass ratio between the two planets, consistent with previous theoretical predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that achieving a globally converged posterior distribution for Kepler-9’s TTV is impossible using a sampling algorithm that preserves the Markovian property. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting results from sampling algorithms that lack mathematical guarantees of global convergence.
A Fourth Planet in the Kepler-51 System Revealed by Transit Timing Variations
Kepler-51 is a ≲1 Gyr old Sun-like star hosting three transiting planets with radii ≈6–9 R ⊕ and orbital periods ≈45–130 days. Transit timing variations (TTVs) measured with past Kepler and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations have been successfully modeled by considering gravitational interactions between the three transiting planets, yielding low masses and low mean densities (≲0.1 g cm−3) for all three planets. However, the transit time of the outermost transiting planet Kepler-51d recently measured by the James Webb Space Telescope 10 yr after the Kepler observations is significantly discrepant from the prediction made by the three-planet TTV model, which we confirmed with ground-based and follow-up HST observations. We show that the departure from the three-planet model is explained by including a fourth outer planet, Kepler-51e, in the TTV model. A wide range of masses (≲M Jup) and orbital periods (≲10 yr) are possible for Kepler-51e. Nevertheless, all the coplanar solutions found from our brute-force search imply masses ≲10 M ⊕ for the inner transiting planets. Thus, their densities remain low, though with larger uncertainties than previously estimated. Unlike other possible solutions, the one in which Kepler-51e is around the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Kepler-51d implies low orbital eccentricities (≲0.05) and comparable masses (∼5 M ⊕) for all four planets, as is seen in other compact multiplanet systems. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term follow-up of TTV systems for probing longer-period planets in a system.
Evidence of Long-term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)
We analyze a large number of citizen science data and identify eight hot Jupiter systems that show evidence for deviations from a constant orbital period: HAT-P-19 b, HAT-P-32 b, TrES-1 b, TrES-2 b, TrES-5 b, WASP-4 b, WASP-10 b, and WASP-12 b. The latter system is already well known to exhibit strong evidence for tidal orbital decay and serves as an important control for this study. Several other systems we identify have disputed period drifts in the literature, allowing the results here to serve as an independent analysis. The citizen science data are from the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD), which is a global project established in 2008 by the Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society. With over 400 planets and 12,000 contributed observations spanning 15 yr, the ETD is brimming with potential for studying the long-term orbital evolution of close-in hot Jupiters. We use our results to discuss prioritization of targets for follow-up investigations, which will be necessary to confirm the period drifts and their causes.
TOI-199 b: A Well-characterized 100 day Transiting Warm Giant Planet with TTVs Seen from Antarctica
We present the spectroscopic confirmation and precise mass measurement of the warm giant planet TOI-199 b. This planet was first identified in TESS photometry and confirmed using ground-based photometry from ASTEP in Antarctica including a full 6.5 hr long transit, PEST, Hazelwood, and LCO; space photometry from NEOSSat; and radial velocities (RVs) from FEROS, HARPS, CORALIE, and CHIRON. Orbiting a late G-type star, TOI-199 b has a 104.854−0.002+0.001day period, a mass of 0.17 ± 0.02 M J, and a radius of 0.810 ± 0.005 R J. It is the first warm exo-Saturn with a precisely determined mass and radius. The TESS and ASTEP transits show strong transit timing variations (TTVs), pointing to the existence of a second planet in the system. The joint analysis of the RVs and TTVs provides a unique solution for the nontransiting companion TOI-199 c, which has a period of 273.69−0.22+0.26days and an estimated mass of 0.28−0.01+0.02MJ . This period places it within the conservative habitable zone.