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Two decades of research have not established whether tropical insect herbivores are dominated by specialists or generalists. This impedes our understanding of species coexistence in diverse rainforest communities. Host specificity and species richness of tropical insects are also key parameters in mapping global patterns of biodiversity. Here we analyse data for over 900 herbivorous species feeding on 51 plant species in New Guinea and show that most herbivorous species feed on several closely related plant species. Because species-rich genera are dominant in tropical floras, monophagous herbivores are probably rare in tropical forests. Furthermore, even between phylogenetically distant hosts, herbivore communities typically shared a third of their species. These results do not support the classical view that the coexistence of herbivorous species in the tropics is a consequence of finely divided plant resources; non-equilibrium models of tropical diversity should instead be considered. Low host specificity of tropical herbivores reduces global estimates of arthropod diversity from 31 million (ref. 1) to 4 6 million species. This finding agrees with estimates based on taxonomic collections, reconciling an order of magnitude discrepancy between extrapolations of global diversity based on ecological samples of tropical communities with those based on sampling regional faunas.

Drought has promoted large-scale, insect-induced tree mortality in recent years, with severe consequences for ecosystem function, atmospheric processes, sustainable resources and global biogeochemical cycles. However, the physiological linkages among drought, tree defences, and insect outbreaks are still uncertain, hindering our ability to accurately predict tree mortality under ongoing climate change. Herewepropose an interdisciplinary research agenda for addressing these crucial knowledge gaps. Our framework includes field manipulations, laboratory experiments, and modelling of insect and vegetation dynamics, and focuses on how drought affects interactions between conifer trees and bark beetles. We build upon existing theory and examine several key assumptions: (1) there is a trade-off in tree carbon investment between primary and secondary metabolites (e.g. growth vs defence); (2) secondary metabolites are one of the main component of tree defence against bark beetles and associated microbes; and (3) implementing conifer-bark beetle interactions in current models improves predictions of forest disturbance in a changing climate. Our framework provides guidance for addressing a major shortcoming in current implementations of large-scale vegetation models, the under-representation of insect-induced tree mortality.

Several key tree genera are used in planted forests worldwide, and these represent valuable global resources. Planted forests are increasingly threatened by insects and microbial pathogens, which are introduced accidentally and/or have adapted to new host trees. Globalization has hastened tree pest emergence, despite a growing awareness of the problem, improved understanding of the costs, and an increased focus on the importance of quarantine. To protect the value and potential of planted forests, innovative solutions and a better-coordinated global approach are needed. Mitigation strategies that are effective only in wealthy countries fail to contain invasions elsewhere in the world, ultimately leading to global impacts. Solutions to forest pest problems in the future should mainly focus on integrating management approaches globally, rather than single-country strategies. A global strategy to manage pest issues is vitally important and urgently needed.

The recent Californian hot drought (2012–2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle ( Dendroctonus brevicomis ; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km 2 , validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality. The 2012–2016 drought and western pine beetle outbreaks caused unprecedented mortality of ponderosa pine in the Sierra Nevada, California. Here, the authors analyse drone-based data from almost half a million trees and find an interaction between host size and climatic water deficit, with higher mortality for large trees in dry, warm conditions but not in cooler or wetter conditions.

Drought is considered to enhance susceptibility of Norway spruce (Picea abies) to infestations by the Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus, Coleoptera: Curculionidae), although empirical evidence is scarce. We studied the impact of experimentally induced drought on tree water status and constitutive resin flow, and how physiological stress affects host acceptance and resistance. We established rain‐out shelters to induce both severe (two full‐cover plots) and moderate (two semi‐cover plots) drought stress. In total, 18 sample trees, which were divided equally between the above treatment plots and two control plots, were investigated. Infestation was controlled experimentally using a novel ‘attack box’ method. Treatments influenced the ratios of successful and defended attacks, but predisposition of trees to infestation appeared to be mainly driven by variations in stress status of the individual trees over time. With increasingly negative twig water potentials and decreasing resin exudation, the defence capability of the spruce trees decreased. We provide empirical evidence that water‐limiting conditions impair Norway spruce resistance to bark beetle attack. Yet, at the same time our data point to reduced host acceptance by I. typographus with more extreme drought stress, indicated by strongly negative pre‐dawn twig water potentials.

Trees can be affected by a wide variety of diseases caused by insects, fungi, and other pathogens. Such diseases often make the headlines—particularly when iconic tree species are affected—for example, in the case of the ash dieback currently spreading through Europe, or the chestnut blight that devastated American chestnut trees. But what is the effect of these diseases on ecosystem services performed by trees in natural and managed ecosystems? Boyd et al. (p. 10.1126/science.1235773 ) review the spread of tree diseases, as a result of globalization and climate change, and analyze the resulting damage to timber and fruit production, to climate regulation, and to parks and woodlands caused by tree diseases. Trees and forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services in addition to timber, food, and other provisioning services. New approaches to pest and disease management are needed that take into account these multiple services and the different stakeholders they benefit, as well as the likelihood of greater threats in the future resulting from globalization and climate change. These considerations will affect priorities for both basic and applied research and how trade and phytosanitary regulations are formulated.

To test the hypothesis that drought predisposes trees to insect attacks, we quantified the effects of water availability on insect attacks, tree resistance mechanisms, and mortality of mature piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) using an experimental drought study in New Mexico, USA. The study had four replicated treatments (40 × 40 m plot/replicate): removal of 45% of ambient annual precipitation (H2O−); irrigation to produce 125% of ambient annual precipitation (H2O+); a drought control (C) to quantify the impact of the drought infrastructure; and ambient precipitation (A). Piñon began dying 1 yr after drought initiation, with higher mortality in the H2O− treatment relative to other treatments. Beetles (bark/twig) were present in 92% of dead trees. Resin duct density and area were more strongly affected by treatments and more strongly associated with piñon mortality than direct measurements of resin flow. For juniper, treatments had no effect on insect resistance or attacks, but needle browning was highest in the H2O− treatment. Our results provide strong evidence that ≥ 1 yr of severe drought predisposes piñon to insect attacks and increases mortality, whereas 3 yr of the same drought causes partial canopy loss in juniper.

Suppressing fungi in a tropical forest plant community lowers diversity by reducing the negative effects of density on seedling recruitment, and removing insects increases seedling survival and alters plant community composition; this demonstrates the crucial role of pathogens and insects in maintaining and structuring tropical forest plant diversity. Plants' foes promote biodiversity The exceptional species richness of tropical rainforests takes some explanation, and one explanation that is well favoured, the Janzen–Connell effect, sounds counterintuitive. It proposes that community diversity is promoted by natural enemies such as fungal pathogens and insect herbivores on the grounds that they prevent any individual host species from becoming too common. This paper reports on experiments in the Chiquibul Forest Reserve, Belize, in which fungi and insects were removed from forest plots in controlled conditions. The results confirm that the fungal pathogens can promote high plant diversity, and that insect herbivores alter the composition of these plant communities. Tropical forests are important reservoirs of biodiversity 1 , but the processes that maintain this diversity remain poorly understood 2 . The Janzen–Connell hypothesis 3 , 4 suggests that specialized natural enemies such as insect herbivores and fungal pathogens maintain high diversity by elevating mortality when plant species occur at high density (negative density dependence; NDD). NDD has been detected widely in tropical forests 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , but the prediction that NDD caused by insects and pathogens has a community-wide role in maintaining tropical plant diversity remains untested. We show experimentally that changes in plant diversity and species composition are caused by fungal pathogens and insect herbivores. Effective plant species richness increased across the seed-to-seedling transition, corresponding to large changes in species composition 5 . Treating seeds and young seedlings with fungicides significantly reduced the diversity of the seedling assemblage, consistent with the Janzen–Connell hypothesis. Although suppressing insect herbivores using insecticides did not alter species diversity, it greatly increased seedling recruitment and caused a marked shift in seedling species composition. Overall, seedling recruitment was significantly reduced at high conspecific seed densities and this NDD was greatest for the species that were most abundant as seeds. Suppressing fungi reduced the negative effects of density on recruitment, confirming that the diversity-enhancing effect of fungi is mediated by NDD. Our study provides an overall test of the Janzen–Connell hypothesis and demonstrates the crucial role that insects and pathogens have both in structuring tropical plant communities and in maintaining their remarkable diversity.

Exotic Xylosandrus spp. ambrosia beetles established in non-native habitats have been associated with sudden and extensive attacks on a diverse range of living trees, but factors driving their shift from dying/dead hosts to living and healthy ones are not well understood. We sought to characterize the role of host physiological condition on preference and colonization by two invaders, Xylosandrus germanus and Xylosandrus crassiusculus. When given free-choice under field conditions among flooded and non-flooded deciduous tree species of varying intolerance to flooding, beetles attacked flood-intolerant tree species over more tolerant species within 3 days of initiating flood stress. In particular, flood-intolerant flowering dogwood (Cornus florida) sustained more attacks than flood-tolerant species, including silver maple (Acer saccharinum) and swamp white oak (Quercus bicolor). Ethanol, a key host-derived attractant, was detected at higher concentrations 3 days after initiating flooding within stems of flood intolerant species compared to tolerant and non-flooded species. A positive correlation was also detected between ethanol concentrations in stem tissue and cumulative ambrosia beetle attacks. When adult X. germanus and X. crassiusculus were confined with no-choice to stems of flood-stressed and non-flooded C. florida, more ejected sawdust resulting from tunneling activity was associated with the flood-stressed trees. Furthermore, living foundresses, eggs, larvae, and pupae were only detected within galleries created in stems of flood-stressed trees. Despite a capability to attack diverse tree genera, X. germanus and X. crassiusculus efficiently distinguished among varying host qualities and preferentially targeted trees based on their intolerance of flood stress. Non-flooded trees were not preferred or successfully colonized. This study demonstrates the host-selection strategy exhibited by X. germanus and X. crassiusculus in non-native habitats involves detection of stress-induced ethanol emission and early colonization of living but weakened trees.

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species. Invasive alien pests can cause large-scale forest mortality and release carbon stored in forests. Here the authors show that climate change increases the potential range of alien pests and that their impact on the carbon cycle could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe’s forests.