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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose a novel collaborative trend prediction method to estimate the status of trending topics by crowdsourcing the wisdom in web search engines. Government officials and decision makers can take advantage of the proposed method to effectively analyze various trending topics and make appropriate decisions in response to fast-changing national and international situations or popular opinions.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, a crowdsourced-wisdom-based feature selection method was designed to select representative indicators showing trending topics and concerns of the general public. The authors also designed a novel prediction method to estimate the trending topic statuses by crowdsourcing public opinion in web search engines.FindingsThe authors’ proposed method achieved better results than traditional trend prediction methods and successfully predict trending topic statuses by using the crowdsourced wisdom of web search engines.Originality/valueThis paper proposes a novel collaborative trend prediction method and applied it to various trending topics. The experimental results show that the authors’ method can successfully estimate the trending topic statuses and outperform other baseline methods. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first such attempt to predict trending topic statuses by using the crowdsourced wisdom of web search engines.

The accuracy of DC measurement system directly affects the reliable operation of DC control and protection system. In order to improve the estimation and prediction of DC measurement system op-eration state, a trend prediction algorithm based on multi-dimensional analysis and long-term memory network is proposed. Based on the analysis of DC measurement principle, the DC measurement status is diagnosed and abnormal is identified by time series trend analysis and anomaly detection. The LSTM is used to construct a multi factor driving current prediction model, and the model is trained and an-alyzed based on the actual operation data. Compared with the traditional time series prediction model, the results indicate that the proposed method is more accurate, simple and effective, and can be applied to the prediction of driving current.

Stock data have a long memory, that is, changes in stock prices are closely related to historical transaction data. Also, Recurrent Neural Networks have good time series feature extraction capabilities. The paper proposed prediction models based on RNN/LSTM/GRU respectively. The attention mechanism has the ability to select and focus \"key information”. Therefore, based on the conventional Recurrent Neural Network, this paper introduced the attention mechanism and proposed a prediction model based on AT-RNN/AT-LSTM/AT-GRU. And the paper modeled and experimented with it. The results showed that: (1) In the most basic comparison test of RNN-M, LSTM-M, and GRU-M prediction models, the GRU-M and LSTM -M was significantly better than the RNN-M and the GRU-M was slightly better than the LSTM-M; (2) The introduction of the attention mechanism layer was helpful to improve the accuracy of the stock fluctuation prediction model;(3) Deeper neural networks did not necessarily achieve better results.

Accurately predicting the changes in turbine vibration trends is a key part of the operational condition maintenance of hydropower units, which is of great significance for improving both the operational condition and operational efficiency of hydropower plants. In this paper, we propose a multistep prediction model for the vibration trend of a hydropower unit. This model is based on the theoretical principles of signal processing and machine learning, incorporating variational mode decomposition (VMD), stochastic configuration networks (SCNs), and the recursive strategy. Firstly, in view of the severe fluctuations of the vibration signal of the unit, this paper decomposes the unit vibration data into intrinsic mode function (IMF) components of different frequencies by VMD, which effectively alleviates the instability of the vibration trend. Secondly, an SCN model is used to predict different IMF components. Then, the predicted values of all the IMF components are superimposed to form the prediction results. Finally, according to the recursive strategy, a multistep prediction model of the HGU’s vibration trends is constructed by adding new input variables to the prediction results. This model is applied to the prediction of vibration data from different components of a unit, and the experimental results show that the proposed multistep prediction model can accurately predict the vibration trend of the unit. The proposed multistep prediction model of the vibration trends of hydropower units is of great significance in guiding power plants to adjust their control strategies to reach optimal operating efficiency.

The recent worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has opened up new challenges to the research community. Artificial intelligence (AI) driven methods can be useful to predict the parameters, risks, and effects of such an epidemic. Such predictions can be helpful to control and prevent the spread of such diseases. The main challenges of applying AI is the small volume of data and the uncertain nature. Here, we propose a shallow long short-term memory (LSTM) based neural network to predict the risk category of a country. We have used a Bayesian optimization framework to optimize and automatically design country-specific networks. The results show that the proposed pipeline outperforms state-of-the-art methods for data of 180 countries and can be a useful tool for such risk categorization. We have also experimented with the trend data and weather data combined for the prediction. The outcome shows that the weather does not have a significant role. The tool can be used to predict long-duration outbreak of such an epidemic such that we can take preventive steps earlier.

The prediction of a volatile stock market is a challenging task. While various neural networks are integrated to address stock trend prediction problems, the weight initialization of such networks plays a crucial role. In this article, we adopt feed-forward Vanilla Neural Network (VNN) and propose a novel application of Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) for weight initialization of VNN model. VNN consists of an input layer, a single hidden layer, and an output layer; the edges connecting neurons in the input layer and the hidden layer are generally initialized with random weights. While PCC is primarily used to find the correlation between two variables, we propose to apply PCC for weight initialization instead of random initialization (RI) for a VNN model to enhance the prediction performance. We also introduce the application of Absolute PCC (APCC) for weight initialization and analyze the effects of RI, PCC, and APCC values as weights for a VNN model. We conduct an empirical study using these concepts to predict the stock trend and evaluate these three weight initialization techniques on ten years of stock trading archival data of Reliance Industries, Infosys Ltd, HDFC Bank, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories for the duration of years 2008 to 2017 for continuous as well as discrete data representations. We further evaluate the applicability of these weight initialization techniques using an ablation study on the considered features and analyze the prediction performance. The results demonstrate that the proposed weight initialization techniques, PCC and APCC, provide higher or comparable results as compared to RI, and the statistical significance of the same is carried out.

Accurate equipment operation trend prediction plays an important role in ensuring the safe operation of equipment and reducing maintenance costs. Therefore, monitoring the equipment vibration and predicting the time series of the vibration trend is one of the effective means to prevent equipment failures. In order to reduce the error of equipment operation trend prediction, this paper proposes a method for equipment operation trend prediction based on a combination of signal decomposition and an Informer prediction model. Aiming at the problem of high noise in vibration signals, which makes it difficult to obtain intrinsic characteristics when directly using raw data for prediction, the original signal is decomposed once using the variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm optimized by the improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA) to obtain the intrinsic mode function (IMF) for different frequencies and calculate the fuzzy entropy. The improved adaptive white noise complete set empirical mode decomposition (ICEEMDAN) is used to decompose the components with the largest fuzzy entropy to obtain a series of intrinsic mode components, fully combining the advantages of the Informer model in processing long time series, and predict equipment operation trend data. Input all subsequences into the Informer model and reconstruct the results to obtain the predicted results. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of equipment operation trend prediction compared to other models.

Mountainous ethnic tourism lands are important social-ecological system types. With tourism as the main disturbance factor, the theory of social-ecological system resilience provides a new way to realize the sustainable development of ethno-tourism in mountainous areas. This study divides the social-ecological system into social, economic, and ecological subsystems. It constructs an evaluation index system to assess the resilience of ethnic tourism destinations in mountainous areas, considering vulnerability and adaptability. We investigate 64 counties in the Wuling Mountain area and use set-pair analysis to assess the resilience index of the social-ecological system from 2000 to 2020 and reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics. Obstacle degree models and a genetic algorithm-back propagation neural network are utilized to determine the influencing factors and predict future development trends. The following results were obtained: (1) Temporally, the resilience index shows a steady upward trend, reaching a moderate level. The resilience of the social subsystem fluctuates and rises; the economic subsystem exhibits slow, fast, and slow growth rates with occasional abrupt changes; and the ecological subsystem demonstrates a stable, slightly increasing trend. (2) Spatially, the resilience index is high at the edges and low in the central area, exhibiting a concave distribution. Most counties have moderate or higher resilience. The social and ecological subsystems have low resilience in the south and high resilience in the north. The resilience of the economic subsystem is high at the edges and low in the central area. (3) On the distribution of major obstacle factors, the first two are similar at the county level, and the last three are significantly different. The similarity of the barrier factors is related to the degree of regional proximity of the county, and overall, the similarity is decreasing from north to south and from west to east in the distribution pattern within the area. and to a certain extent, it is affected by terrain and geomorphology. (4) The spatial distribution of the resilience index is similar in 2025 and 2030. The index decreases slightly and then increases annually, with a lower growth rate in the south than in the north. Lower values occur in the northern and southwestern parts, whereas higher values are observed around high-value areas. The region as a whole will develop in a coordinated and integrated manner in the future.

Landslides along the Three Gorges Reservoir in China pose a threat to coastal residents and waterway safety. To reduce false positive misjudgments caused by a sudden local change in the landslide deformation curve, in this paper, we propose an effective method for predicting the deformation trend of reservoir bank landslides. We take reservoir bank landslides in the Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir area as the research object. The Time-Series Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) method and 62 Sentinel-1A images from 2018 to 2022 were selected for landslide deformation monitoring, and the Hurst index was calculated to characterize the deformation trend. Furthermore, we propose a method for predicting the deformation trend based on the statistical distribution of deformation rates and the physical significance of the Hurst index. After the field survey and Global Positioning System (GPS) verification, the Time-Series InSAR results are shown to be reliable. We take the Sifangbei landslide as a representative case to analyze the validation results. It is found that the determined Sifangbei landslide deformation trend is consistent with the conclusions for the region. In addition, the deformation trend of a reservoir bank slope has obvious spatial and temporal differences. Changes in the reservoir water level and concentrated rainfall play roles similar to those of catalysts. The proposed method, involving the combination of Time-Series InSAR and the Hurst index, can effectively monitor deformation and predict the stability trend of reservoir bank landslides. The presented research results provide new ideas and solutions for landslide prevention and risk mitigation in reservoir areas.