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A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo’s insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

Tropical cyclones have far-reaching impacts on livelihoods and population health that often persist years after the event 1 – 4 . Characterizing the demographic and socioeconomic profile and the vulnerabilities of exposed populations is essential to assess health and other risks associated with future tropical cyclone events 5 . Estimates of exposure to tropical cyclones are often regional rather than global 6 and do not consider population vulnerabilities 7 . Here we combine spatially resolved annual demographic estimates with tropical cyclone wind fields estimates to construct a global profile of the populations exposed to tropical cyclones between 2002 and 2019. We find that approximately 560 million people are exposed yearly and that the number of people exposed has increased across all cyclone intensities over the study period. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted away from children (less than 5 years old) and towards older people (more than 60 years old) in recent years compared with the early 2000s. Populations exposed to tropical cyclones are more socioeconomically deprived than those unexposed within the same country, and this relationship is more pronounced for people exposed to higher-intensity storms. By characterizing the patterns and vulnerabilities of exposed populations, our results can help identify mitigation strategies and assess the global burden and future risks of tropical cyclones. A global profile of tropical cyclone population exposure for the period 2002–2019 shows a steady increase, with approximately 560 million people exposed yearly and a disproportionate exposure among those with lower socioeconomic status.

Prospects for coral persistence through increasingly frequent and extended heatwaves seem bleak. Coral recovery from bleaching is only known to occur after temperatures return to normal, and mitigation of local stressors does not appear to augment coral survival. Capitalizing on a natural experiment in the equatorial Pacific, we track individual coral colonies at sites spanning a gradient of local anthropogenic disturbance through a tropical heatwave of unprecedented duration. Unexpectedly, some corals survived the event by recovering from bleaching while still at elevated temperatures. These corals initially had heat-sensitive algal symbiont communities, endured bleaching, and then recovered through proliferation of heat-tolerant symbionts. This pathway to survival only occurred in the absence of strong local stressors. In contrast, corals in highly disturbed areas were already dominated by heat-tolerant symbionts, and despite initially resisting bleaching, these corals had no survival advantage in one species and 3.3 times lower survival in the other. These unanticipated connections between disturbance, coral symbioses and heat stress resilience reveal multiple pathways to coral survival through future prolonged heatwaves. Climate change and local anthropogenic stressors threaten the persistence of coral reefs. Here the authors track coral bleaching over the course of a heatwave and find that some colonies recovered from bleaching while high temperatures persisted, but only at sites lacking in other strong anthropogenic stressors.

Strict storage recommendations for insulin are difficult to follow in hot tropical regions and even more challenging in conflict and humanitarian emergency settings, adding an extra burden to the management of people with diabetes. According to pharmacopeia unopened insulin vials must be stored in a refrigerator (2–8°C), while storage at ambient temperature (25–30°C) is usually permitted for the 4-week usage period during treatment. In the present work we address a critical question towards improving diabetes care in resource poor settings, namely whether insulin is stable and retains biological activity in tropical temperatures during a 4-week treatment period. To answer this question, temperature fluctuations were measured in Dagahaley refugee camp (Northern Kenya) using log tag recorders. Oscillating temperatures between 25 and 37°C were observed. Insulin heat stability was assessed under these specific temperatures which were precisely reproduced in the laboratory. Different commercialized formulations of insulin were quantified weekly by high performance liquid chromatography and the results showed perfect conformity to pharmacopeia guidelines, thus confirming stability over the assessment period (four weeks). Monitoring the 3D-structure of the tested insulin by circular dichroism confirmed that insulin monomer conformation did not undergo significant modifications. The measure of insulin efficiency on insulin receptor (IR) and Akt phosphorylation in hepatic cells indicated that insulin bioactivity of the samples stored at oscillating temperature during the usage period is identical to that of the samples maintained at 2–8°C. Taken together, these results indicate that insulin can be stored at such oscillating ambient temperatures for the usual four–week period of use. This enables the barrier of cold storage during use to be removed, thereby opening up the perspective for easier management of diabetes in humanitarian contexts and resource poor settings.

The accelerating loss of tropical forests in the 21st century has eliminated cooling services provided by trees in low latitude countries. Cooling services can protect rural communities and outdoor workers with little adaptive capacity from adverse heat exposure, which is expected to increase with climate change. Yet little is still known about whether cooling services can mitigate negative impacts of heat on labor productivity among rural outdoor workers. Through a field experiment in Indonesia, we show that worker productivity was 8.22% lower in deforested relative to forested settings, where wet bulb globe temperatures were, on average, 2.84 °C higher in deforested settings. We demonstrate that productivity losses are driven by behavioral adaptations in the form of increased number of work breaks, and provide evidence that suggests breaks are in part driven by awareness of heat effects on work. Our results indicate that the cooling services from forests have the potential for increasing resilience and adaptive capacity to local warming. It is expected that tropical deforestation and related increases in heat exposure have negative impacts on labour productivity, but the size of the effect is not well known. Here, the authors show that deforestation reduces productivity by 8.22% in rural Indonesia and causes behavioural adaptation responses like more work breaks.

Tropical plant species are expected to have high heat tolerance reflecting phenotypic adjustments to warm regions or their evolutionary adaptation history. However, tropical highland specialists adapted to the colder temperatures found in the highlands, where short and prostrated vegetation decouples plants from ambient conditions, could exhibit different upper thermal limits than those of their lowland counterparts. Here we evaluated leaf heat tolerance of 21 tropical alpine paramo species to determine: 1) whether species with restricted distribution (i.e., highland specialists) have lower heat tolerance and are more vulnerable to warming than species with widespread distribution; 2) whether different growth forms have different heat tolerance; and 3) whether species height (i.e., microhabitat) influences its heat tolerance. We quantified heat tolerance by evaluating T50, which is the temperature that causes a reduction in 50% of initial Fv/Fm values and reflects an irreversible damage to the photosynthetic apparatus. Additionally, we estimated the thermal safety margins as the difference between T50 and the maximum leaf temperature registered for the species. All species presented high T50 values ranging between 45.4°C and 53.9°C, similar to those found for tropical lowland species. Heat tolerance was not correlated with species distributions or plant height, but showed a strong relationship with growth form, with rosettes having the highest heat tolerance. Thermal safety margins ranged from 12.1 to 31.0°C. High heat tolerance and broad thermal safety margins suggest low vulnerability of paramo species to warming as long as plants are capable of regulating the leaf temperature within this threshold. Whether paramo plants would be able to regulate leaf temperature if drought episodes become more frequent and transpirational cooling is compromised is the next question that needs to be answered.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are similarly structured viruses with similar environmental survival, but different routes of transmission. While RSV is transmitted predominantly by direct and indirect contact, influenza is also transmitted by aerosol. The cold, dry conditions of temperate winters appear to encourage the transmission of both viruses, by increasing influenza virus survival in aerosols, and increasing influenza and RSV survival on surfaces. In contrast, the hot, wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons appear to discourage aerosol transmission of influenza, by reducing the amount of influenza virus that is aerosolized, and probably also by reducing influenza survival in aerosol. The wet conditions of tropical rainy seasons may, however, encourage contact transmission of both viruses, by increasing the amount of virus that is deposited on surfaces, and by increasing virus survival in droplets on surfaces. This evidence suggests that the increased incidence of influenza and RSV in tropical rainy seasons may be due to increased contact transmission. This hypothesis is consistent with the observation that tropical rainy seasons appear to encourage the transmission of RSV more than influenza. More research is required to examine the environmental survival of respiratory viruses in the high humidity and temperature of the tropics.

Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics and local spatial variation in dengue virus transmission is strongly influenced by rainfall, temperature, urbanization and distribution of the principal mosquito vector Aedes aegypti . Currently, endemic dengue virus transmission is reported in the Eastern Mediterranean, American, South-East Asian, Western Pacific and African regions, whereas sporadic local transmission has been reported in Europe and the United States as the result of virus introduction to areas where Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus , a secondary vector, occur. The global burden of the disease is not well known, but its epidemiological patterns are alarming for both human health and the global economy. Dengue has been identified as a disease of the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. According to the WHO, dengue control is technically feasible with coordinated international technical and financial support for national programmes. This Primer provides a general overview on dengue, covering epidemiology, control, disease mechanisms, diagnosis, treatment and research priorities. Infection with any one of the four dengue virus serotypes can cause disease that ranges from a mild febrile illness through to haemorrhagic fever and shock. This Primer outlines the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and management of dengue infection.

The relationship between feed intake at production levels and enteric CH 4 production in ruminants consuming forage-based diets is well described and considered to be strongly linear. Unlike temperate grazing systems, the intake of ruminants in rain-fed tropical systems is typically below maintenance requirements for part of the year (dry seasons). The relationship between CH 4 production and feed intake in animals fed well below maintenance is unexplored, but changes in key digestive parameters in animals fed at low levels suggest that this relationship may be altered. We conducted a study using Boran yearling steers ( n 12; live weight: 162·3 kg) in a 4 × 4 Latin square design to assess the effect of moderate to severe undernutrition on apparent digestibility, rumen turnover and enteric CH 4 production of cattle consuming a tropical forage diet. We concluded that while production of CH 4 decreased (1133·3–65·0 g CH 4 /d; P < 0·0001), over the range of feeding from about 1·0 to 0·4 maintenance energy requirement, both CH 4 yield (29·0−31·2 g CH 4 /kg DM intake; P < 0·001) and CH 4 conversion factor ( Y m 9·1–10·1 MJ CH 4 /MJ gross energy intake; P < 0·01) increased as intake fell and postulate that this may be attributable to changes in nutrient partitioning. We suggest there is a case for revising emission factors of ruminants where there are seasonal nutritional deficits and both environmental and financial benefits for improved feeding of animals under nutritional stress.

Increasing evidence shows that the functioning of the tropical forest biome is intimately related to the climate variability with some variables such as annual precipitation, temperature or seasonal water stress identified as key drivers of ecosystem dynamics. How tropical tree communities will respond to the future climate change is hard to predict primarily because several demographic processes act together to shape the forest ecosystem general behavior. To overcome this limitation, we used a joint individual-based model to simulate, over the next century, a tropical forest community experiencing the climate change expected in the Guiana Shield. The model is climate dependent: temperature, precipitation and water stress are used as predictors of the joint growth and mortality rates. We ran simulations for the next century using predictions of the IPCC 5AR, building three different climate scenarios (optimistic RCP2.6, intermediate, pessimistic RCP8.5) and a control (current climate). The basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree growth and mortality rates were then computed as summary statistics to characterize the resulting forest ecosystem. Whatever the scenario, all ecosystem process and structure variables exhibited decreasing values as compared to the control. A sensitivity analysis identified the temperature as the strongest climate driver of this behavior, highlighting a possible temperature-driven drop of 40% in average forest growth. This conclusion is alarming, as temperature rises have been consensually predicted by all climate scenarios of the IPCC 5AR. Our study highlights the potential slowdown danger that tropical forests will face in the Guiana Shield during the next century. The tropical forests cover accounts for 25% of the terrestrial carbon pool, and therefore plays an essential role on carbon cycle and storage 1,2. Higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration might increase carbon uptake, maintaining the carbon sink historical role of tropical forests 3. But recent droughts linked to El Nino phenomenon have weakened this carbon sink 4-7 , highlighting the dependence of tropical forest dynamics on the global Earth climate. On the other hand, tropical forest dynamic, through tree growth and mortality, itself impacts carbon storage and cycle, and provides important feedbacks on climate change. In this context, more and more efforts are being made to describe the long-term impact interplays between climate change and tropical forest functioning 8-13. Recently, the impacts of exceptional droughts have been coaching more attention, first because droughts are predicted to be more frequent and severe in the tropics 14 , and second because tropical forests have already suffered from past severe droughts 15-17. Massive tree mortality have been observed after droughts 18,19 , potentially caused by hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation 20 , and affecting more severely large trees 19,21. Beyond exceptional droughts and other long-term changes in water availability, temperatures are also expected to rise and the dry season length to increase over the next century in Amazonia 14,22. These changes will likely impact tree dynamics 23,24 , and dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs) sometimes predict a shift toward drier forests or even savannas 25. Coarse scale DGVMs allow efficient large-scale carbon cycle prediction with little input data, relying on a wide set of mechanistic assumptions 26. These models were initially developed to simulate ecosystem carbon fluxes, they